Weekly Hail Mary: Week 4
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We were excellent in Week 2 (80% hit rate), but Week 3 was particularly dreadful. We hit on just 1 of 6 recommended plays last week, for a 17% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Matthew Stafford - MISS - 13.46 points - Stafford had 269 yards and a touchdown, but his two INTs precluded him from being a hit (those 4 points would have propelled him to a 17.46 point finish). He also had a touchdown to Tutu Atwell called back in the first quarter. Brutal 8-point swing, when combined with the picks. But, thems the breaks. You don’t want us to be close, you want us to be right. We’ll be better.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Matt Breida - HIT - 9.3 points - Only 4 carries for 17 yards, but one of them resulted in a touchdown, and sometimes that’s all it takes. He also chipped in 3 catches. He should still be the lead guy this week for the Giants.
Craig Reynolds - MISS - 1.5 points - the expected volume just wasn’t there. Reynolds receiving only 4 carries, as the Lions unwisely tried to force Jahmyr Gibbs into a bell cow role.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Robert Woods - MISS - 4.9 points - Woods had only 3 catches for 34 yards. The process was good, but the player was wrong. The Texans are chucking it, but it was rookie Tank Dell who wound up with the yardage in this one.
Donovan Peoples-Jones - MISS - 6.4 points - Not a horrendous outing by any stretch, but DPJ’s 3 for 49 still left you wanting, especially against a bad Tennessee secondary.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Zach Ertz - MISS - 1.6 points - A measly 2 catches for 6 yards. What happened to all the volume he was getting in the first two weeks? I choose to believe that this was an outlier game, and that you should keep Ertz on your radar moving forward.
Moving onto Week 4, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Ryan Tannehill, Titans (7%). Tannehill faces off against the Bengals in Week 4, who are bottom 5 against the pass. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him post a useful stat line this week, given the matchup.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Raiders (14%). Garoppolo has long been an HMF poster boy when the matchup is right. This week, the matchup is right, against the hapless Chargers. A word of caution, though - he was evaluated for a concussion as a result of the Week 3 game, so obviously, if he’s ruled out, he’s removed from streamer consideration. [Saturday update: Jimmy G has been ruled out and is thus removed from streamer consideration.]
Bryce Young/Andy Dalton, Panthers (12% and 2%). Fire up whichever one is starting. Dalton proved in Week 3 that the Panthers have sufficient weaponry to get it done. They face off against the Vikings this week, whose defense was just absolutely embarrassed by the Chargers. Keenan Allen alone had over 200 yards receiving and threw a touchdown pass. You can score on Minnesota.
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
Matt Breida, Giants (30%). Going back to the well on this one, despite the limited workload in Week 3. But Breida appears to be their goal line guy for as long as Barkley is out, and they have a tasty matchup against Seattle on Monday Night Football. This recommendation is contingent upon Barkley continuing to sit, of course, but Barkley advised prior to the start of the Week 3 contest that he had a high ankle sprain (rather than a regular ankle sprain), and those types of injuries typically take longer to recover from. We’ll probably get at least one more week of usage out of Breida.
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Tank Dell, Texans (32%). He’s for real. Dude may be undersized, and yeah, he’s only a rookie, but 3 games into his NFL career, he’s showing he belongs. The past two games he’s had at least 5 receptions, 70 yards, and a touchdown. Even without the touchdowns he’s posting the sort of stat line that would qualify him as a hit under our rubric.
Josh Palmer, Chargers (4%). In the wake of Mike Williams’ season-ending knee injury, a lot of analysts are going to tell you to pick up Quentin Johnston. And that may well end up being the better long-term play. But based on usage in Week 3 after Williams’ injury, it looks like Palmer is the next man up, at least for now. Rest of season I do prefer Johnston, but for Week 4, give me Palmer. I buy into the offense, the role, and the matchup against Las Vegas.
Honorable mention: Keep an eye on Marvin Mims, Broncos (27%). He’s been outstanding the past 2 weeks but he’s doing it on a limited target share.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Luke Musgrave, Packers (18%). He’s coming off a career high in catches and yards. I’m always timid when it comes to starting rookie tight ends, but this week he gets his softest matchup yet when the Packers take on the Lions.
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (37%). He doesn’t technically qualify due to ownership levels, but I’m putting him on the list because there’s a great chance he drops below the 35% threshold once waivers run due to his abysmal Week 3 performance. I believe he’s going to get back to seeing around 8 targets per game, and it’s hard to find that kind of volume at tight end.