Weekly Hail Mary: Week 3

Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary.  If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer...  a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is! 

Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big.  Think of it as a dart throw column.  These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn.  They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire.  We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position.  Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates: 

• 51% on quarterbacks

• 55% on running backs

• 40% on wide receivers

• 45% on tight ends  

For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.

Our determination of hits and misses is objective.  We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:

Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.  

Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season. 

Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

We hit on 8 of 10 recommended plays last week, for an astounding 80% (!) hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:

Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)

1. Ryan Tannehill - HIT - 21.04 points - TanneTHRILL had a highly useful day with 245 passing yards, a passing score, and a rushing score.  The Chargers can’t stop anybody.  

2. Jordan Love - HIT - 20.34 points - Love had only 150 passing yards, but he charged his fantasy performance with three touchdowns and 20+ rushing yards.  

Running Back (7.56 points minimum)

1. Zack Moss - HIT - 18.7 points - Moss had over 100 yards from scrimmage and a rushing score.  Deon Jackson was an afterthought.  Moss is proof that volume is the name of the game at running back.  You don’t have to be particularly skilled.  You just have to get the work. 

2. Gus Edwards - HIT - 12.2 points - He had fewer snaps than Justice Hill, but he got the score, to go on top of 62 yards rushing. 

3. Joshua Kelley - MISS - 3.9 points - Kelley had 13 carries for 39 yards, so the workload was reasonable, but he didn’t do much with his touches. 

Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)

1. Puka Nacua - HIT - 22.6 points - Puka had 15 carries for 147 yards.  He’s reached every-week starter territory.  Don’t overthink this. 

2. Robert Woods - HIT - 10.4 points - Woods is a classic floor play, but it’s a safe floor.  He was 6 for 74 in this one in a game where CJ Stroud threw for nearly 400 yards. 

3. Zay Jones - MISS - 0.0 points - It’s excusable, because he suffered an injury in the first half. 

Tight End (6.69 points minimum)

1. Zach Ertz - HIT - 8.6 points - He saw 8 targets in this game, which gives him 18 through 2 weeks. He was 6 for 56, and a top 10 tight end on the week.  He’s probably a Top 12 TE from here on out based on the catch volume. 

2. Hunter Henry - HIT - 14.2 points - Henry was 6 for 52 and a touchdown.  He’s got just as much of a shot to score a touchdown as any other top tight end.  They’re using him the same way that they did in 2021, which was a good touchdown year for him. 

Moving onto Week 3, below are the weekly Hail Marys.  It’s a lighter week this week, as there are fewer guys that I feel confident about than normal.  As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:   

Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)

1. Matt Stafford, Rams (35% rostered).  He’s close, so we’re counting it.  Stafford has 300 yards passing in both games this season and now faces off against a Bengals team that has been bottom-5 against opposing passers so far.  Here’s betting that he improves on his one touchdown pass for the season. 

Running back (7.56 points minimum)

1. Craig Reynolds, Lions (0%).  This is going out on a limb a bit, but he projects to have the David Montgomery role for Detroit in a plus matchup against the Falcons.  In all likelihood, the Lions give more work to Jahmyr Gibbs, but I still don’t see him as a 20-touch player. 

2. Matt Breida, Giants (2%).  It’s all about projectable volume.  With Saquon Barkley out, Breida is likely to carry the load for the G-Men.  He’s looked good in spot starts in the past for the 49ers - which happens to be who he’ll be playing on Thursday night. 

Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)

1. Robert Woods, Texans (9%).  I’m sticking with him.  He’s a reliable veteran who is a key part of this passing offense.  The matchup against the Jaguars is average (not easy, not tough).  If you’re in a pinch this week, I feel pretty safe with him.  He looks better this year than he did last year with Tennessee. 

2. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns (11%).  It’s a soft, soft matchup against Tennessee’s tissue-paper-thin secondary. This feels like a game where he could get loose for some long gains.  

Tight end (6.69 points minimum)

1. Zach Ertz, Cardinals (10%).  Come on, guys.  Really?  How is this guy still only 10% owned?  We’re just going to keep recommending him until you guys start picking him up.  He’s a reliable bet for at least 6 targets, likely more.