Weekly Hail Mary: Week 5
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 3 of 7 recommended plays last week, for a 43% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Ryan Tannehill - MISS - 13.7 points - 240 yards passing, a touchdown, and a pick in a game where the Titans dominated the Bengals from start to finish. We were really counting on him for another passing score here.
Bryce Young - MISS - 7.16 points - It is early in his career, but this dude might be a bust. He had only 200 yards passing and no scores in a soft matchup against a beatable Vikings secondary.
Jimmy Garoppolo - PUSH - Jimmy G was declared inactive prior to the game, which automatically removed him from streamer consideration.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Matt Breida - HIT - 10.3 - 14 rushes for 30 yards and 5 receptions for 48 yards. He certainly wasn’t efficient on the ground, but the receiving work alone propelled him to a useful fantasy day. It’s like we’ve preached on this site for years: all you need is volume at running back. Breida isn’t particularly “good,” but he gets volume, and volume is king.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Josh Palmer - HIT - 9.2 points - He hauled in only 3 passes, but turned them into 77 yards. That’s exactly what we needed for him to be useful.
Tank Dell - MISS - 3.4 points - He actually had more rushes (2) than receptions (1), which he turned into 29 combined yards. There will be better days.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Zach Ertz - HIT - 8.3 points - He caught 6 of 10 targets for 53 yards. It isn’t pretty, but it’s useful. As predicted, his ownership percentage dropped below our thresholds following his clunker in Week 3. I bet you’ll see his name again in this week’s recommended Hail Marys.
Luke Musgrave - MISS - 0.6 points - This one is a case of bad luck, not bad process. Musgrave caught only one ball in the first quarter before being knocked out of the game with a concussion. You can’t predict injuries. There’s nothing we would do differently here. This was a good process (rookie tight end whose production was increasing and was facing the worst defense in the league against tight ends). It just didn’t work out due to the injury.
Moving onto Week 5, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Sam Howell, Commanders (18%). You start your quarterbacks against the Bears. You start your quarterbacks against the Bears at home. And you definitely start your quarterbacks against the Bears at home on a short week. Fire Howell up for the Thursday Night Football matchup.
Josh Dobbs, Cardinals (5%). This is a really hard recommendation to make, because I don’t believe in Dobbs as a player, and I don’t believe in the “talent” surrounding him. But he’s finding a way to make it work every week. He has at least 40 yards rushing in each of the past three weeks. And this week, they get Cincinnati. Everyone is beating up on the Bengals (well, except Ryan Tannehill, I guess).
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
Jaleel McLaughlin, Broncos (2%). This is a recommended streamer only if Javonte Williams is out. But after Javonte went down, McLaughlin stepped in and got more carries than Samaje Perine. It appears McLaughlin will be the lead back for Week 5 against the Jets.
Latavius Murray, Bills (10%). It’s a bad week to need a running back. It’s the first week of byes, there weren’t any serious injuries to RBs last week aside from the hip injury to Javonte, and there aren’t really any reliable pass catching specialists available on waivers. Murray is a floor play. He has at least 6.6 points in 3 straight. It doesn’t quite meet our thresholds, but it’s not far off. You’re praying for a touchdown.
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Michael Wilson, Cardinals (2%). Sigh. If I’m recommending Dobbs, why not, I guess. He came on with the best game of his young career against the Cowboys last week. Bear in mind he caught 100% of the passes thrown his way, though. That’s likely not repeatable. And the Bengals haven’t been horrendous against wide receivers (unless they’re lined up against safety Nick Scott, who has no business starting for an NFL team).
Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (4%). Robinson gets to feast against a Miami team that just got absolutely embarrassed by Stefon Diggs. Robinson ain’t Diggs, but he’s no slouch, either.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Zach Ertz, Cardinals (26%). Zach Ertz makes my job easy. I say to pick him up, you guys ignore me, and he has another usable week, which allows me to recommend him again the following week. He’s got 8 or more targets in 3 of his 4 games this year. It’s not rocket science. Volume is the name of the game. He faces the Bengals this week, who are bottom-5 against the tight end.
CLOSING NOTE
This may be the last weekly Hail Mary column for a while. Due to family and work obligations (yes, I have a full-time job outside of this), it’s becoming harder and harder to find the time to write this weekly column. Moving forward, the column will either be (a) much shorter, or (b) much more sporadic. I appreciate your dedicated support over the years. Hopefully one day I can get back to the weekly columns you’ve come to love, but for now, I’m likely going to need a hiatus.