Weekly Hail Mary: Week 6
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 3 of 7 recommended plays last week, for a 43% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Sam Howell - HIT - 26.42 points - It was ugly against the Bears, especially in the first half. But Howell delivered a career-high 388 passing yards and 2 scores, and chipped in 19 yards rushing. Solid day for the Commanders’ young signal-caller.
Josh Dobbs - MISS - 10.74 points - 166 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and 2 picks. The rushing was nearly nonexistent in this game, which was the sole reason we recommended him in the first place.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Jaleel McLaughlin - HIT - 16.4 points - He had 9 rushes for 68 yards, plus 3 catches for 21 yards and a score. He’s the primary back for as long as Javonte is out.
Latavius Murray - MISS - 1.2 points - Just 2 carries for 6 yards and a reception for 7 yards. Murray simply wasn’t involved in a script where the Bills were playing from behind the entire game. When you play him, you’re hoping for a touchdown, and that just didn’t happen here.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Wan’Dale Robinson - MISS - 4.4 points - He was plenty involved, touching the ball 6 times, but he just didn’t do anything with his touches. He tallied less than 20 yards combined for the game.
Michael Wilson - MISS - 2.3 points - Where did this guy go? He didn’t get his first catch until late in the 4th quarter. Just completely shut down by the Bengals secondary.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Zach Ertz - HIT - 8.0 points - all it takes to be a hit at tight end is to score a touchdown. He scored a touchdown. The target volume wasn’t anywhere close to what it’s been in recent weeks, but hey - sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
Moving onto Week 6, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Zach Wilson, Jets (9%). It’s not a great week to stream quarterbacks. Let’s get that out of the way first. And you’ll certainly never feel good about playing Zach Wilson. But he’s at home against Philly, which is a bottom-10 team against the pass.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (19%). He’s playing against Detroit, so it’s a reasonable matchup. I’m really only comfortable with him if Mike Evans plays.
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
Latavius Murray, Bills (16%). He burned us in Week 5, but he gets a very beatable Giants defense on Sunday night in Week 6. The G-Men are bottom 10 against opposing rushers.
Emari Demercado, Cardinals (1%). James Conner suffered a knee injury, and Demercado was the next man up in relief. He totaled nearly 90 yards from scrimmage.
D’Onta Foreman, Bears (26% as of Thursday). [Editor’s note: Late addition prior to kickoff Sunday.] Foreman goes from weekly inactive to bell cow starter for the Bears, who lost Khalil Herbet to IR last week and are without Roschon Johnson in Week 6. Foreman should get the lion’s share of the carries Sunday.
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Zay Jones, Jaguars (30%). T-Law is comfortable with Zay Jones, especially in the red zone. The Colts secondary is bad. This isn’t difficult.
Darnell Mooney, Bears (23%). With Chase Claypool getting shipped off to Miami, Mooney should see more targets. DJ Moore ain’t scoring 3 tuddies every week, ya know? The Bears play the Vikings this week, which is the most favorable matchup in the league for opposing wideouts.
KJ Osborn, Vikings (9%). Speaking of the Vikings-Bears game… did you hear that Justin Jefferson has already been declared out with his hammy? The Chicago defense is beatable, and Osborn is going to get more targets than usual.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Tyler Conklin, Jets (6%). I’m not comfortable with Tyler Conklin as a player. But he faces Philly this week, who are bottom-2 against tight ends. If you’re playing matchups, this is a matchup to exploit.
CLOSING NOTE
As we cautioned last week, this may be the last weekly Hail Mary column for a while. Due to family and work obligations, it’s becoming harder and harder to find the time to write this weekly column. Moving forward, the column may shorter, or it may be more sporadic. Hopefully one day I can get back to the weekly columns you’ve come to love, but for now, I can’t promise continued weekly output. I’ll post content when I can.