Weekly Hail Mary: Week 7
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on just 1 of 8 recommended plays last week, for a 13% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Zach Wilson - MISS - 10.94 points - He played well enough to win, but not well enough to help your fantasy team. He played turnover-free football, but had no scores and didn’t even throw for 200 yards.
Baker Mayfield - MISS - 7.84 points - He was terrible. 206 yards passing, no scores, and a pick.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Latavius Murray - MISS - 4.5 points - 12 for 45.
Emari Demercado - MISS - 2.2 points - Keaontay Ingram stole the lead back role.
D’Onta Foreman - HIT - 7.2 points - below the points threshold, but finished among the top 36 at RB, which qualifies as a hit.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Zay Jones - PUSH - Jones was inactive and was this removed from streamer consideration.
Darnell Mooney - MISS - 5.8 points - 2 catches for 48 yards. The offense struggled to get going all day, and didn’t have a prayer once Justin Fields went down.
KJ Osborn - MISS - 6.8 points - It’s a miss, but just barely. He finished just a hair outside the top 36.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Tyler Conklin - MISS - 3.9 points - Just 3 catches for 24 yards.
Moving onto Week 7, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. We’re going with a few more recommendations than normal this week at RB and WR since there are so many teams on bye. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Derek Carr, Saints (25% rostered). I’m always squeamish about recommending Carr, because he’s just not a high-upside player. He’s fine, but not special. Probably a floor play here, but he should hit it in a home game against Jacksonville on Thursday night. Jacksonville is a top 10 matchup for opposing QBs.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (18%). I don’t love it, but with 6 teams on bye, I can get behind it. He faces the Falcons at home, and they’re a middle-of-the-road passing matchup. He got skunked last week and I don’t believe that will happen two weeks in a row. I like Carr better, but if you’re truly in a pinch - and a lot of squads are, with 6 teams on a bye and injuries to players like Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields - I can get behind holding your nose and going with Baker. He’s got decent weapons to throw to.
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
Jordan Mason, 49ers (7%). To be clear, this is only if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t play. But Mason was the next man up when McCaffrey got injured on Sunday, and he scored the touchdown.
Keontay Ingram, Cardinals (20%). He’s the lead rusher for the Cardinals while James Conner is out and we’re coming up on a bye week where 6 teams are on bye. If you need volume, Ingram is your guy.
Latavius Murray, Bills (14%). We keep recommending him because he’s the goal line back for a good offense. You’re praying for a touchdown.
Zach Evans, Rams (4%). Only if Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers don’t play. As of right now, Evans is projected to be the starter for the Rams in their matchup against the Steelers. Temper expectations, but if he gets a heavy workload, he could be useful.
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Curtis Samuel, Commanders (34%). Samuel faces off against the Giants in Week 7, and they are bottom-10 against opposing fantasy wideouts.
Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (4%). Remember what I just said about the Giants being bad against the pass? Their opponent, the Commanders, are worse.
Jayden Reed, Packers (20%). I don’t have any basis for this recommendation other than to tell you that the Packers face the Broncos this week, and the Broncos have an historically bad defense.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals (23%). The Cardinals face off against the Seahawks, who are bottom-5 against opposing fantasy wideouts.
Josh Downs, Colts (33%). The matchup against Cleveland isn’t ideal (the Browns are the best pass D in the NFL), but Downs seems like a decent PPR bet regardless. Gardner Minshew should look to check down early and often.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (30%). Only if he plays. But Trevor Lawrence looks for this dude in the end zone. He’s got a great shot at scoring in what projects as a high scoring game against the Saints.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Luke Musgrave, Packers (18%). See Reed, Jayden.
Taysom Hill, Saints (7%). He’s the only healthy tight end the Saints have, they’re playing at home on a short week, and they have their first top-10 tight end matchup of the season. Hill saw 8 targets last week and turned in his most useful fantasy total of the season. It’s a rough week to stream tight ends, but there’s always the potential for a monster week out of Hill.