Weekly Hail Mary: Week 9
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 3 of 6 recommended plays last week, for a 50% hit rate! Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Kenny Pickett - MISS - 3.92 points - Hard to glean anything from this outing. Pickett suffered a rib injury in the second quarter and missed the entirety of the second half. What can ya do? You can’t predict injuries.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Emari Demercado - HIT - 8.4 points - Suddenly a bell cow, Demercado had 20 (!) carries for 78 yards and also added a reception.
Devin Singletary - MISS - 5.3 points - Singletary had 10 totes for 30 yards and also 2 catches for 13 yards. The workload was decent - 12 touches - but the overall production was lacking.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Kendrick Bourne - HIT - 11.1 points - Bourne found pay dirt yet again. He had 3 catches for 36 yards and a score before exiting with a knee injury, which turned out to be an ACL tear. It’s a huge blow for an already-thin WR corps.
Zay Jones - PUSH - Jones continues to miss time with a knee injury.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Taysom Hill - HIT - 21.96 points - Swiss Army knife Hill contributed in all manner on Sunday, including 44 yards passing, a reception for 14 yards, and 9 rushes for 63 yards and a touchdown.
Hunter Henry - MISS - 4.3 points - He had 3 catches for 28 yards. Pretty much teammate Kendrick Bourne’s stat line, but without the score.
Moving onto Week 9, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Derek Carr, Saints (37% owned). It’s a bit of a cheat as he’s rostered in JUST slightly too many leagues to technically qualify, but it’s close enough, so I’m throwing him out there because he’s probably available in your league. Carr has three straight games with 300+ yards, and this week he gets the hapless Bears. You could do worse.
Mac Jones, Patriots (9%). He’s playing against Washington, which is the second most favorable matchup for opposing passers. Don’t out-think the room.
Taylor Heinicke, Falcons (0%). ONLY IF HE STARTS IN PLACE OF DESMOND RIDDER. We’re not recommending him if Ridder starts. But hospital-ball-Heinicke has interesting weapons at his disposal if he gets the starting nod. The dude ain’t afraid to chuck it.
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
Royce Freeman, Rams (22%). Freeman is still seeing a reasonable workload and gets the Packers on Sunday, who are a top-3 matchup for opposing RBs.
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Demario Douglas, Patriots (3%). He has at least 6 targets in each of his past 2 games. His role in the offense is growing and the matchup against Washington is favorable. Also, as noted above, Kendrick Bourne suffered a torn ACL on Sunday, which means more of the target share pie is available for Pop Douglas.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Taysom Hill, Saints (35%). He has 14+ fantasy points in 2 straight and he gets the Bears this week. We recommended Derek Carr, so…
Trey McBride, Cardinals (20%). Fair warning: he faces off against the Browns this week, who are the best in the league against the tight end. But he also just got 10 targets against the Ravens, who are second-best. So the matchup doesn’t really scare me. Plus, for those keeping score at home, the Cardinals have now targeted their primary tight end 8 or more times in half their games this year. If this dude is going to see that kind of volume, you just can’t ignore him, regardless of who the opponent is.