Weekly Hail Mary: Week 8
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 5 of 12 recommended plays last week, for a 42% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Derek Carr - HIT - 18.44 points - When you watch it, it’s never pretty, but at the end of the day the stat line is there for David Carr’s little brother. He had over 300 yards passing, a touchdown, a pick, and 14 yards rushing.
Baker Mayfield - HIT - 17.2 points - 275 yards passing, one touchdown and one pick, and 32 yards rushing. It was the unexpected rushing production that got us there. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Latavius Murray - MISS - 3.8 points - 6 touches for a combined 28 yards. Yeesh.
Zach Evans - MISS - Evans took a back seat to Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson as he continues to learn the offense.
Keontay Ingram - MISS - 0.0 points - After leading all Cardinals RBs in production in Week 6, Ingram surprisingly rode the pine in Week 7.
Jordan Mason - PUSH - We specified that Mason was a recommended play only if CMC missed the game. CMC suited up, so Mason was removed from streamer consideration.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Josh Downs - HIT - 21.0 points - Downs had 5 receptions for a career-high 125 yards and a score. His day was fueled by a long touchdown reception in the first half.
Jayden Reed - HIT - 9.6 - 3 receptions for 21 yards and a touchdown.
Michael Wilson - MISS - 4.1 points - 3 catches for 26 yards. Pretty much the same stat line as Reed, sans the score.
Curtis Samuel - MISS - 4.5 points - The entire Commanders offense struggled in this one. Samuel had 4 catches for just 25 yards.
Wan’Dale Robinson - MISS - 2.7 points - Wan’Dale was targeted just twice, and caught only 1 pass for 22 yards.
Zay Jones - PUSH - Jones was inactive for yet another game.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Taysom Hill - HIT - 14.8 points - 5 rushes for 18 yards and a touchdown, and 4 catches for 50 yards. Useful!
Luke Musgrave - MISS - 5.0 points - 4 catches on 5 targets for 30 yards. Jordan Love is holding back this entire offense.
Moving onto Week 8, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Kenny Pickett, Steelers (20% rostered). It gives me great anxiety to recommend Kenny Pickett. He’s terrible at football. But he’s got Diontae Johnson back, he’s playing at home, and he’s the only available QB streamer facing a bottom-10 defense. (Ok, Mac Jones is facing a bottom 10 defense too, but man, you’ve gotta be really desperate to start Mac Jones.)
Running back (7.56 points minimum)
Emari Demercado, Cardinals (14%). They’re getting him touches in a lot of ways. He’s a decent floor play.
Devin Singletary, Texans (14%). Singletary is slowly wresting the lead back job from Dameon Pierce. According to Rotowire, he’s averaging 1.0 YPC more than Pierce for the season. They play the Panthers on Sunday, which is the second-most favorable matchup for opposing runners this year.
Wide receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Kendrick Bourne, Patriots (26%). He’s really the only threat they have at WR, and the matchup against the Dolphins isn’t intimidating.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (24%). Let’s hope he finally comes back this week. The Jags play the Steelers, who are one of the top 5 most favorable matchups for wide receivers.
Tight end (6.69 points minimum)
Hunter Henry, Patriots (31%). Lots of folks have been dropping him due to his injury and the Patriots’ offensive struggles, but he’s still a great red zone weapon.
Taysom Hill, Saints (9%). He could just as easily blank you as give you anything, but you can say that about most tight ends. At least Hill has a significantly higher ceiling than most tight ends. The matchup against Indianapolis is attractive.