Weekly Hail Mary: Week 10
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Most weeks, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position. Last year, we hit at a 44% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. This year, our goal is to have the following success rates:
51% on quarterbacks
55% on running backs
40% on wide receivers
45% on tight ends
For a breakdown on how we arrived at these targets, please check out our column on last year’s hit rates.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Tom Brady) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 7.56 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Isiah Pacheco) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 8.26 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (George Pickens) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 6.69 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Dallas Goedert) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 3 of 7 recommended plays last week, for a 43% hit rate. Here’s a brief recap:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Derek Carr - HIT - 16.74 points - He’s so predictable. You know you’re not getting a massive performance, but he can exceed the minimum points threshold. He had 211 yards with 2 passing scores.
Mac Jones - MISS - 12.1 points - 220 yards passing and a TD. He’s a below-average NFL QB who should probably be a backup.
Taylor Heinicke - MISS - 15.72 points - 268 yards, a TD, and a pick. Not horrible, but he should have done more. Better days are ahead.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Royce Freeman - MISS - 3.2 points - 12 carries for 32 yards. OK usage, but he needs a score to be viable.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Demario Douglas - HIT - 8.0 points - He had 5 catches for 55 yards and finished among the top 36 WRs. Although he missed the points threshold, the top 36 finish makes him a hit.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Taysom Hill - HIT - 18.62 points - a passing touchdown, 52 yards rushing, and 4 catches for 13 yards and a score. Fantasy goodness.
Trey McBride - MISS - 3.7 points - 3 catches for 22 yards. We knew there was a risk when pitting him against the tough Cleveland defense, which is the best in the NFL against tight ends.
Moving onto Week 10, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterback (16.5 points minimum)
Taylor Heinicke, Falcons (11% rostered). He’s on the road against the Cardinals, and they’ve got a beatable secondary. I feel even better about him if he gets Drake London back.
Running Back (7.56 points minimum)
Keaton Mitchell, Ravens (4%). He got 10 touches last week, finding pay dirt while tallying over 100 yards rushing. Although he’s a big play threat, only 10 touches doesn’t get you excited. HE probably won’t be a good play this week, but hey, it’s a pretty thin week on the waiver wire at RB.
Wide Receiver (8.26 points minimum)
Zay Jones, Jaguars (19%). If he returns from injury following the bye, he’s in a decent spot against the 49ers, who are bottom 5 against opposing wideouts.
Tight End (6.69 points minimum)
Michael Mayer, Raiders (12%). He faces the Jets on Sunday Night Football, who are bottom 5 against the tight end. This team is showing signs of life under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, so hey, let’s fire up the rookie and see what happens.