Weekly Hail Mary: Week 1
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs, or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Onto our recommended plays for Week 1:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Ryan Tannehill (20% rostered). Everyone always wants to count out Tannehill, but he continues to prove us wrong. Last year, he was the QB12, so it wouldn’t be all that shocking for him to continue to produce as a QB1. Yeah, I get it: this year, he’s without A.J. Brown. But he was without A.J. Brown for about a quarter of last season, too. And when healthy, Brown only scored five touchdowns. So it’s not like Tanne-thrill’s 2021 was based primarily off of Brown’s production. He can produce with other options. Off-season imports Robert Woods and Austin Hooper give him a couple of reliable targets, and there is substantial upside with rookie WRs Treylon Burks and Kyle Philips. Plus, an opening date at home against the New York Giants isn’t terribly intimidating. Fire up Tannehill with confidence.
Carson Wentz, Commanders (13%). Wentz was a disappointment last year, but he’s in a new situation and facing off against the Jaguars in Week 1, who were one of the worst defenses in the league last season. He has a plethora of weapons at his disposal in D.C., including Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, and first-round-pick Jahan Dotson. 250 yards and a couple touchdowns is within reach.
Running Back (8.15 points minimum)
J.D. McKissic, Commanders (32% rostered). If you’ve ever viewed our Weekly Hail Marys before, you’ll know that McKissic is a favorite around these parts. He’s that pass-catching back who no one ever drafts, but who has a relatively safe weekly floor. He’s a solid bet for 4-5 catches and around 60 scrimmage yards.
Mike Davis, Ravens (29%). I’ve long been on record with my belief that Mike Davis is a terrible football player. But with both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards still on the shelf, Davis is going to get some serious volume this week, and volume is the name of the game for running backs. Plus, the Ravens are opening the season against the New York Jets, who gave up the most fantasy points to opposing runners last season. Kenyan Drake probably eats into the workload a bit, but Davis is a reasonable-enough desperation play in Week 1.
Wide Receiver (9.9 points minimum)
D.J. Chark, Lions (32% rostered). Last time he was healthy, we saw Chark catch 73 balls for over 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. He’s still young (25), and he’s still 6’4 with 4.4 wheels. His matchup against Philadelphia this week isn’t ideal, but sometimes you just have to bet on the talent. Chark is a good talent, and he’s now far, far away from the terrible situation that Urban Meyer created in Jacksonville last year.
Rondale Moore, Cardinals (30%). I make this recommendation with great trepidation, because I’ve never been a fan of the diminutive (5’7”) Moore. But with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first 6 games, there should be targets aplenty. A.J. Green has been cooked for 3 seasons now, and “no YAC Zach” isn’t much of a threat anymore, either. All of the passes here can’t go to Hollywood Brown… so I’m guessing Kliff Kingsbury dials up some plays specifically for Moore during Hopkins’ absence.
Parris Campbell, Colts (5%). Finally healthy, the former second-rounder has a chance to shine with Matt Ryan now under center. Most fantasy players are going to be focusing on Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and, to a lesser extent, rookie Alec Pierce in this offense, but the speedster Campbell is the lottery ticket to scratch in the Colts’ opener against the Texans. He’s got the talent to be a major fantasy force, if he can just leave his recurrent soft tissue injuries in the rearview.
Tight End (9.35 points minimum)
Gerald Everett, Chargers (23% rostered). Look, when you’re streaming tight ends, you’re focusing on guys who have the best chance to score a touchdown. Everett is tied to Justin Herbert. In my view, that means he’s got a great chance to score touchdowns this season.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals (10%). Speaking of guys tied to great quarterbacks, Hurst is now tied to Joe Burrow. All of the defensive attention is going to be focused on Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon, so Hurst should have plenty of room to roam - especially in the red zone. Plus, Burrow loves to absolutely embarrass AFC North rivals, so it’s not unreasonable to expect an onslaught against Pittsburgh this week.