2021 Bold Predictions Revisited
At the outset of the 2021 season, we submitted our Bold Predictions for the 2021 season. The idea was to challenge conventional wisdom in the hopes of gaining an edge on our competition. Some of these moves worked out, and likely qualified as “league winners.” Others could have torpedoed your squad. In this article, we’ll revisit our best and worst bold predictions of the past season. (Note: all stat calculations were through Week 17, when most fantasy leagues concluded.)
Good call: Najee Harris will have more fantasy points than Saquon Barkley. At the time, Barkley was firmly entrenched as a first round pick, and Harris was going in Round 2. In several places, I advocated taking Harris with your first round pick if you were picking at the tail end of the round, and I definitely pounded the table for him over Barkley. Harris wound up being the RB3 in fantasy points, posting 291.2 points this season - more than double that posted by Barkley, who finished as RB33 with 141.7 points.
Bad call: Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb will both finish as top-12 WRs. Lamb was WR15, so close enough. But Cooper was WR28, due to a combination of injury issues, COVID, and Dak Prescott’s own injury in the second half of the season. Cooper then concluded his season by pejoratively comparing his quarterback to Kirk Cousins, and was summarily shipped to Cleveland.
Good call: The most fantasy-relevant pass-catcher in New York will be Elijah Moore. This was bold because it encompassed both New York teams, including big-ticket free-agent signees Kenny Golladay and Corey Davis and first-round pick Kadarius Toney. Nevertheless, the 5’9 rookie Elijah Moore wound up with more fantasy points than every other Jet and Giant, with 138.2 points. Next in line were Braxton Berrios (122.1), Jamison Crowder (108.10), Corey Davis (106.2), Evan Engram (102.1), Kenny Golladay (83.9), Kadarius Toney (82.36), Sterling Shepard (77.7), Keelan Cole (64.5), and Darius Slayton (57.8). Given how many other guys there were to beat, and the fact that Moore missed 6 games, this bold call is all the more impressive.
Bad call: Kenyan Drake will have more fantasy points than teammate Josh Jacobs. Jacobs’ workload has been suspect, but the dude just has a nose for the end zone. He was RB13 on the year, and Drake (who ultimately got hurt) wasn’t even close. I still don’t understand why they gave Drake all that money to not use him. Perhaps things would have been different if Jon Gruden hadn’t gotten the axe?
Bad call: Deshaun Watson will play at least 12 games. He didn’t play at all. My logic was that he hadn’t been criminally charged, so legally, there was nothing precluding him from playing. Although that logic was sound, he still failed to take a snap in 2021.
Good call: D’Andre Swift will finish among the top 3 running backs in receptions. He actually finished fourth in receptions, with 58 - behind Najee Harris (70), Leonard Fournette (69), and Austin Ekeler (65) - but he also missed four games. At his pace, if he had played those games, he would have wound up with 77 receptions and led the league. The long and short of it is that if you banked on Swift to rack up a ton of catches for your squad, you were rewarded.
Bad call: Calvin Ridley will finish the year as the WR1. Ridley’s mental health woes derailed his season. And now, he’s suspended for (at minimum) all of 2022. Here’s to hoping he can get the help he needs, and return to superstar status in 2023.
Bad call: Myles Gaskin will finish outside the top-36 RBs. Believe it or not, Gaskin was a top-25 RB this year. (Just barely. He was RB25.) Still, you probably weren’t too upset if you passed on him. He was outscored by guys like Devin Singletary, A.J. Dillon, Melvin Gordon, Damien Harris, and Darrel Williams, all of whom were being drafted after him.
Good call: Derrick Henry will NOT finish as an RB1. I was concerned about Henry’s workload and flagged him as a prime injury risk. And what happened? His body broke down; he got hurt before the midway point. If you invested a first round pick in him, your team was toast.
Bad call: Jerry Jeudy will finish as a top-15 WR. Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock killed him, along with the high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 1. He needs a real QB to be fantasy-relevant. Lo and behold, he just got one. I’ll probably be doubling down on Jeudy as a top-15 receiver this year now that he’s catching passes from DangeRuss (Russell Wilson).
Good call: Brandin Cooks will finish as a top-15 WR. If you count Cordarrelle Patterson as a running back - which is the position he played this year - then Cooks finished the season as WR15. Not bad for a guy who was going in the 8th round or later in most leagues! He finished ahead of more highly regarded players like DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett, A.J. Brown, and Terry McLaurin.
Bad call: Tua Tagovailoa will end the year as a QB1. Tua got hurt early in the season, but he likely was not going to be a QB1 anyway. He lost Will Fuller for the year early in the season, which torpedoed his chances of orchestrating a high-flying attack. After two years in the league, he’s looking like an average-to-below-average NFL quarterback.
Good call: Julio Jones will finish outside the top-24 receivers. This is probably the call I am most proud of. The call was based on Jones’ history of lower leg injuries. And what derailed his season this year? Lower leg injuries. He was basically unusable this year. Avoid players over 30 with injury issues, kids.