Weekly Hail Mary: Week 2
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 5 of 8 recommended plays last week, for a 62.5% success rate:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Carson Wentz (29.72 points) - HIT - Wentz was on fire in this one, and finished as the third-best QB on the week, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Although he tossed a couple picks, he had 4 touchdowns, a 2-point conversion, and 300+ yards passing.
Ryan Tannehill (19.34 points) - HIT - Tannehill was a top-12 quarterback on the week and exceeded the minimum points threshold. He had a good-but-not-great game: 266 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, he played turnover-free football, and 250+ and 2 tuddies is always enough to make you a bottom-end QB streamer.
Running Back (8.15)
J.D. McKissic (7.80) - MISS - McKissic just missed the cut, but I’ll bet if you started him and were expecting 8.15 points, you weren’t all that disappointed with the 7.8. He was involved, as expected, and was reliable, as usual.
Mike Davis (1.10) - MISS - It was announced just prior to kickoff that Kenyan Drake, rather than Mike Davis, would be the lead runner for the Ravens. No matter. Both were bad. But Davis only got two touches in this one. Yuck. I was very vocal about my disdain for Mike Davis as a player prior to last season (due to lack of talent), and I should have stuck to my evaluation.
Wide Receiver (9.9)
D.J. Chark (15.20) - HIT - Targeted 8 times, Chark hauled in four passes and found the end zone. While the end result is encouraging, what’s even more encouraging is how often Jared Goff looked his way, as that bodes well for future usage in this offense. He has already become too heavily rostered to be eligible for Weekly Hail Mary consideration moving forward.
Parris Campbell (6.70) - MISS - Campbell wasn’t terribly involved in this one, seeing only 4 targets from Matt Ryan. He did haul in 3 of them, but turned them into only 37 scoreless yards.
Rondale Moore - PUSH - It was announced earlier in the week that Moore would miss the game due to a hamstring injury. You had ample notice to look elsewhere for another option.
Tight End (9.35)
Gerald Everett (14.40) - HIT - Everett hauled in three passes for 54 yards and found pay dirt, and typically finding the end zone is all it takes to be a viable starter at tight end.
Hayden Hurst (9.60) - HIT - Although Hurst fell slightly below the desired points threshold, he qualifies as a “hit” because he nevertheless finished as a top-12 tight end for the week. Even more importantly, he saw 8 targets from Joe Burrow, which is a great sign for how he will be used in the Bengals’ offense.
Moving onto Week 2, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff, Lions (21% rostered). Coming off a 2-touchdown game against a supposedly-good Eagles defense, Goff now has a home date against the Washington Commanders, who are suspect in the secondary. Washington has a good defensive line, but Detroit probably has a better offensive line, and Goff should have plenty of time to throw. He seems as safe of a bet as anyone to throw for 250 yards and a couple scores.
Daniel Jones, Giants (25%). Look, I really had to swallow hard to make this recommendation. But in the early parts of the season, there just aren’t that many starting QBs available on waivers, so it’s slim pickins. (Never fear: a lot of managers will drop their backup quarterbacks as the season progresses). I’m recommending Jones this week because (a) he’s playing at home, whereas a lot of the other streamer-types are on the road, and (b) he can run a little bit, which should help juice his final stat line. The Giants host the Panthers, who have a better defense than you think, but Jones could still be useful if you’re really desperate. I’d feel better about him if the Giants would use Kadarius Toney more; his lack of snaps in Week 1 was really puzzling. I’d certainly be more comfortable starting Jared Goff than Daniel Jones this week, for what it’s worth.
Running Backs
Jeff Wilson, 49ers (16%). Elijah Mitchell suffered what appears to be a serious knee injury on Sunday, and Wilson is the next man up for the Kyle Shanahan backfield. The Niners take on the hapless Seahawks at home on Sunday, and Wilson should have ample room to run.
J.D. McKissic, Commanders (29%). Death. Taxes. J.D. McKissic as a recommended streamer. There are just some certainties in life. McKissic, as always, should get around 8-10 touches, with more than half coming through the air, and should have around 40-60 yards.
Rex Burkhead, Texans (13%). Burkhead got more work than “starter” Dameon Pierce, amassing 19 touches in a close game. He didn’t do very much with those touches, mind you, but he was still seeing the volume. He did manage 5 catches for 30 yards (on 8 targets), and if he’s going to see that type of target volume, you can’t ignore him.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers (4%). ONLY IF NAJEE HARRIS IS OUT. Hear me on this, people. ONLY IF NAJEE HARRIS IS OUT. Harris got banged up at the end of the Bengals game - remember, he’s coming off a Lisfranc sprain - and if he’s not ready to go, Warren is the next man up, and should see 20+ touches against the Patriots. So fire him up . . . ONLY IF NAJEE HARRIS IS OUT. I’m taking a “push” on this if Harris plays.
Wide Receivers
Curtis Samuel, Commanders (4%). Most managers are going to lean toward teammate Jahan Dotson, as he had two touchdowns against the Jaguars. But it was actually Samuel who was more involved in the team’s passing game. He saw 11 (!) targets on Sunday and hauled in 8 of them. Oh, and he found pay dirt, too. Dotson, on the other hand, saw only 5 targets. You always want to bet on the guy seeing the volume, and that’s Samuel, who earned a 26.8% target share this week.
Robbie Anderson, Panthers (10%). No, this is not an overreaction to Anderson’s 75-yard touchdown. This is a response to his volume and target share. Although he was an afterthought in last year’s offense, he’s become a primary target in the 2022 rendition. Anderson paced all Panthers in targets with 8, commanding almost a 30% target share. I don’t think he’ll keep up that sort of insane pace all season, but if he can hover around 25%, he’ll be a useful fantasy asset this year.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns (4%). Despite the fact that he was a 5-star recruit, I’ve just never been sold on DPJ as a talent. That said, he saw a massive target share on Sunday (32.5%), so if he’s going to command that much attention from his QB, we can’t ignore him. He didn’t do much with all of those targets (6 catches for 60 yards), but it still would have resulted in 12 fantasy points, which makes him streamer-viable. Plus, if he keeps seeing such a hefty target volume (11 this past week), he’s bound to find the end zone.
BONUS: Other guys I’m optimistically watching: Jarvis Landry, Saints (9 targets, 26.5% target share); Kyle Philips, Titans (9 targets, 27.3% target share)
Guys I’m not buying just yet: Corey Davis, Jets; Zay Jones, Jaguars. Although both had 9 targets, the target share just wasn’t there. Davis reached his 9 targets on a whopping 59 pass attempts, which was good for only a 15% target share, and Jones did it on 42 attempts, good for only a 21.4% target share. The other guys listed above did as much or more on fewer pass attempts. Don’t just chase the raw totals; understand the context!
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett, Chargers (27%). Look, we’re going to continue to go back to the well on this dude until he’s rostered in more than 35% of leagues and is no longer eligible for our consideration. He’s tied to a great quarterback on an offense that loves to throw the ball. What’s not to like here? The Chargers play at Kansas City on Thursday Night Football this week, and Keenan Allen is likely to miss this game, so if you want Everett, you’re going to need to snag him early. Given these two offenses, this game has the potential to be a shootout, which is a boon for Everett’s prospects.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals (10%) - Another repeat from last week’s list, but like Everett, he’s tied to a good quarterback. Plus, the Bengals lost Tee Higgins to a concussion in Week 1, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be cleared in time for Sunday’s showdown with Dallas. I like Hurst as a streamer if Higgins is out, because he’s probably the red zone replacement for Higgins. Plus, as noted above, he saw 8 targets in Week 1. What’s not to like about that?
Logan Thomas, Commanders (6%) - In his first game back since tearing his ACL last fall, Thomas saw 6 targets, which he turned into 45 yards receiving. He’s the only real red zone weapon this team has, and he is walking into a tasty matchup with the Detroit Lions on Sunday. My only trepidation is that it’s probably unlikely that both he and Curtis Samuel will provide return-on-investment in the same week.