Weekly Hail Mary: Week 4
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 5 of 10 recommended plays last week, for a 50% success rate. We’ve hit on at least 50% for every week so far this season! A recap of last week’s calls:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Marcus Mariota - HIT - Mariota had a couple turnovers that depressed his totals a bit, but he rushed for one score and threw for another, which was enough to propel him to 17.56 fantasy points. Wasn’t a great outing, but it was good enough to get him above our minimum thresholds. And before you pooh-pooh it, he put up more points than every-week starters like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford.
Jared Goff - MISS - The Lions’ offense was decent in this one, but they did most of their damage on the ground. Goff had only one passing score and 277 yards passing en route to 14.88 points. Not brutal, by any means, but JUST below our standards. If you streamed him, you were probably still in contention in your matchup, as it was a fairly low-scoring week for QBs not named Lamar, Hurts, or Allen.
Joe Flacco - MISS - Somehow I knew when I recommended Joe Flacco that it would bite me in the ass. Lesson learned. Don’t recommend players you don’t like. I didn’t like Donovan Peoples-Jones yet recommended him in Week 2, and I didn’t like Flacco yet recommended him in Week 3. Can’t make that mistake again. We’ll be better. Sometimes, you just have to trust your gut.
Running Back (8.15)
J.D. McKissic - HIT - J.D. McKissic is such a baller. Another 10 points this week. He had a vintage J.D. McKissic day: 3 carries for 8 yards, and 6 receptions for 32 yards. That catch volume is enough to make him a reliable streamer each week. Don’t be surprised to see him recommended again this week!
Tyler Allgeier - MISS - Contrast Allgeier’s performance with McKissic and you begin to see just how much more valuable pass-catching RBs are than their between-the-tackles counterparts. Allgeier had 6 carries for 25 yards, and a catch for 5 yards. So he had almost as many touches as McKissic, but nowhere near the points total, finishing with only 4 points on the day.
Darrel Williams - PUSH - We recommended Williams only on the condition that James Conner was inactive. Conner played, so this one was moot.
Wide Receiver (9.9)
Josh Palmer - HIT - He was recommended only on the condition that Keenan Allen was inactive. Allen was inactive, and Palmer balled out to the tune of 6 catches for 99 yards, for a total of 15.90 fantasy points.
Garrett Wilson - HIT - Despite missing some time in this one following a hard hit from Bengals safety Vonn Bell, Wilson still finished with 6 catches for 60 yards and 12 fantasy points.
Sterling Shepard - HIT - I’m victory lapping HARD on this one. Shepard had 9.9 fantasy points, which was barely enough to qualify him as a hit, as that’s our minimum threshold. Good job, Sterling! Unfortunately, it looks like he suffered a serious knee injury at the end of the game, and might be done for the season. Best wishes to him on a speedy recovery.
Tight End (9.35)
Logan Thomas - MISS - The entire Commanders offense struggled in this one. Thomas had only 2 catches for 5 yards. Woof.
Hayden Hurst - MISS - Hurst was even worse than Thomas, finishing outside the top 50 tight ends. He had only 1 catch for 7 yards. With tight ends, we’re often chasing touchdowns, and when they don’t happen, we’re going to have days like this.
Moving onto Week 4, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan, Colts (33% rostered). The Colts play at home this week against the division-rival Titans, who have given up at least 2 passing touchdowns to every quarterback they’ve faced (including the stinky Daniel Jones). Ryan is a safe bet for 250 yards passing and a couple scores.
Geno Smith, Seahawks (9%). Smith faces off against the Lions this week, and the Lions defense is more porous than Swiss cheese. The Lions have given up four or more scores in each game this season. Teams are gonna score on them. So unless you think Rashaad Penny and Kenny Walker are gonna combine for four touchdowns, you need to be in on Smith this week.
Running Backs
J.D. McKissic, Commanders (26%). C’mon, folks. You don’t need me to tell you about this guy anymore. Just pick him up and start him if you’re in dire straits.
Bonus name: Khalil Herbert, Bears (50%). Herbert doesn’t technically qualify for our list because he’s owned in half of Yahoo! leagues, but I’m flagging him for you because he should see nearly all of the backfield touches if David Montgomery (knee/ankle) is sidelined. The Bears face off against hapless Giants this week, which should be a battle of inept offenses.
Wide Receivers
Greg Dortch, Cardinals (17%). At least 13 fantasy points in every game this season, and his total points have gone up every week. He should continue to be useful at least until DeAndre Hopkins returns.
Richie James, Giants (4%). Sterling Shepard was going to be recommended again until his injury, so we pivot to his teammate James, who has been an every-down receiver for the Giants thus far. Wan’Dale Robinson is hurt, Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney are in the doghouse, and, well, somebody has to catch passes for the Giants. James seems to have the coaches’ trust, and he’s going to get opportunities. (Whether he can do anything with those opportunities remains to be seen, but hey, he’s going to get opportunities.)
Josh Palmer, Chargers (27%). Like last week, you’re only playing him if Keenan Allen is out. But if Allen doesn’t suit up, he’s got a tasty matchup with Houston, who can’t really stop anyone. Even the hapless Bears put up 23 points on them.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin, Jets (21%). The Conk Daddy isn’t a great player, but he’s seeing fantastic volume so far this season: 7 targets in Week 1, 9 in Week 2, and 8 in Week 3. If he can continue to see that many looks with Zach Wilson back under center, he’ll be a useful streamer this season.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals (22%). As I’ve said repeatedly, you want to tie yourself to a good quarterback when streaming tight ends. Playing at home on a short week, Hurst is as good of a bet as anyone to find pay dirt in Week 4.