Weekly Hail Mary: Week 5
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 5 of 9 recommended plays last week, for a 55% success rate. We have been better than 50% every week this season. Here is a review of last week’s recommendations:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Geno Smith - HIT - Well, that went well! 320 yards passing and 2 scores, plus another 49 yards rushing and a score - and turnover-free football! Going into the Sunday night game, he was the #2 QB scorer on the week, with 31.70 points.
Matt Ryan - HIT - Was it pretty? Nope. Did it get the job done? Absolutely. Ryan had 350+ yards passing and a couple scores, but had his overall total dragged down by a couple turnovers. Still, he finished with 19.84 fantasy points, which is good enough around these parts, and better than stars like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.
Running Back (8.15)
JD McKissic - HIT - The HailMaryFootball poster boy continues to deliver! This week, it was actually more with his rushing, as he had 8 totes for 40 yards. He was less involved through the air - only 3 catches for 16 yards - but hey, it got the job done. He finished with 8.6 fantasy points on the week. He’s the most underrated fantasy asset in the game!
Khalil Herbert - HIT - He had 20 touches, which he turned into over 100 yards from scrimmage and 11.1 fantasy points. Useful.
Wide Receiver (9.9)
Greg Dortch - MISS - Dortch lost his opportunities with Rondale Moore’s return to the lineup. He only had one target, which he caught for six yards.
Richie James - MISS - One catch for nine yards and a lost fumble. Woof.
Josh Palmer - MISS - Only targeted once, Palmer hauled in one pass for 25 yards. The offense funneled through Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams in this one.
Tight End (9.35)
Hayden Hurst - HIT - Only 3 catches for 27 yards, but one of those catches hit pay dirt (and sealed the game for the Bengals), catapulting him to an 11.7-point finish. You want your TEs tied to good quarterbacks, folks!
Tyler Conklin - MISS - 3 catches for 52 yards, leading to 8.2 fantasy points. He’s a miss, but barely. If you started him, you’re probably content.
Moving onto Week 5, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill, Titans (17% rostered). They’re on the road against the Commanders, who can be beaten through the air. Plus, the Titans offense has looked functional the last few weeks, and Tannehill is an experienced quarterback.
Andy Dalton, Saints (2%). Only if Jameis doesn’t play. But Dalton was competent in his start in London, and he’s at home this week against a very beatable Seattle secondary that just gave up 4 touchdowns to Jared Goff. If Jameis Winston is active, you can pivot to him, as he’s only 36% owned.
Running Backs
JD McKissic, Commanders (28%). He’s getting close to being too heavily rostered to be considered, but for now, he’s still an every-week recommendation. He sees enough work in the passing game that he has a relatively safe floor every week.
Caleb Huntley, Falcons (1%). Huntley and Tyler Allgeier each got ten carries on Sunday with Cordarrelle Patterson ailing, but it was Huntley who got the score. Patterson is now on short-term IR, which means there should again be opportunities for Huntley moving forward. Also, if you’re looking forward another week ahead, grab Damien Williams, as he’s eligible to come off of short-term IR in Week 6 and will likely be the primary ball-carrier upon his return.
[NB: Originally Deon Jackson of the Colts (0%) was listed as a recommended streamer, but with news that he is likely at the back end of a committee, we have removed that recommendation as of 10/4/22].
Wide Receivers
Kyle Philips, Titans (1%). Only if Treylon Burks doesn’t play. But Burks had to be carted off the field in the second half of this past week’s game, and the Titans don’t really have any other receiving threats outside of Robert Woods. So there could be opportunities there for Philips in a favorable matchup against the Commanders.
Zay Jones, Jaguars (29%). First, I want everyone to understand that Zay Jones stinks. Second, this could easily wind up being a repeat of my earlier-season recommendations of Donovan Peoples-Jones and Joe Flacco (recommending players I don’t believe in, who predictably flopped). But Jones is a starting wideout with a relatively good quarterback and is seeing volume. When you’re grabbing guys from the waiver wire, chasing volume is usually a good idea.
Robbie Anderson, Panthers (20%). He’s being held back by Baker Mayfield, and that won’t change this week. They’ve also got a tough matchup against the 49ers. But this is a dude who has deep speed, and is always a threat for a long score. He and DJ Moore are playing the majority of the snaps, so at least he’s out there and getting opportunities. He had a stellar Week 1, so we know he’s got it in him to hook up with Baker for a big day. The Panthers need to open up their offense if they want to salvage their season.
Bonus name: George Pickens, Steelers (39%). He’s ever-so-slightly too highly owned to be eligible for HMF consideration, but I’m tossing it out there just in case he’s available in your league. He was a favorite target of Kenny Pickett once he was handed the reigns in the second half of Sunday’s game, and he posted his first-ever 100-yard game. Pickett is more of a gunslinger (and presumably, more accurate) than Trubisky, which bodes well for Pickens’ prospects. Plus, wide receivers typically improve over the course of their rookie year. This is probably your last opportunity to buy low on Pickens.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill, Saints (29%). He’s facing the Seahawks on Sunday, and they’ve been particularly bad against the tight end - like, worst in the NFL bad (did you see what TJ Hockenson just did to them?). Hill has a great chance to score here.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals (21%). Look, we’re going to keep recommending him every week just because he’s tied to Joe Burrow. But the recommendation is doubly weighty this week, because the Bengals are playing the Ravens. Do you recall what Joe Burrow did to the Ravens last year? He basically got Don Martindale fired. Expect fireworks.
Robert Tonyan, Packers (33%). You know that thing I keep saying about wanting tight ends who are tied to good quarterbacks? His quarterback is Aaron Rodgers. He’s kinda good. Like, Hall of Fame-level good. And the Packers don’t have any wide receivers worth writing home about. And, they play the Giants on Sunday. Pick a reason, any reason.