Weekly Hail Mary: Week 3

Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary.  If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer...  a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is! 

Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big.  Think of it as a dart throw column.  These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn.  They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire.  We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than three potential streamers at each position.  Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.  Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.   

Our determination of hits and misses is objective.  We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:

Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.  

Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season. 

Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

We’ve continued our hot start, hitting on 6 of 11 recommended plays last week (55% success rate): 

Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)

1. Jared Goff - HIT - Goff exploded for 4 touchdowns against the Commanders, en route to 26 fantasy points.  Great start this week, and he may be a viable fantasy streamer for the foreseeable future due to the tremendous supporting cast he has.  

2. Daniel Jones - MISS - Despite the win, this was a rough game for Jones.  He had under 200 yards passing and only one score.  If you told me before the game started that he’d have 10 rush attempts, I would have felt even better about recommending him as a streamer. But alas, he wound up turning that rushing volume into a measly 21 yards.  He still finished with more points than fantasy starters like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Trey Lance, but his final output of only 13.14 points leaves a lot to be desired. 

Running Back (8.15)

1. Jeff Wilson - HIT - Wilson carried the load for the Niners and tallied over 100 yards from scrimmage, finishing with 12.30 fantasy points against the Seahawks.  Consider this a “floor”-type game for Wilson.  In future weeks, he’s bound to find the end zone, which will inflate his fantasy production. Hopefully you picked him up last week when you could, because he’s rostered in about 75% of leagues right now.  He won’t be eligible for this list moving forward.

2. J.D. McKissic - HIT - I love this guy. Love. He’s a cheat code that most fantasy managers just haven’t discovered out yet, as he continues to be ignored every year because he’s not a “starter.”  But in this offense, he gets high-value touches, as he is the pass-catching specialist.  This week, he had 10 touches, 7 of which were receptions, and 60+ yards from scrimmage.  That was good for 13.3 points, easily enough to qualify as a hit.  In fact, going into the Sunday night game, he was a Top-12 play for the week (i.e., a RB1).   

3. Rex Burkhead - MISS - Two catches on three targets for 9 yards, and no carries.  Houston completely changed their RB usage from last week, giving rookie Dameon Pierce 100% of the carries in this one.  Burkhead can be dropped in all formats.  

4. Jaylen Warren - PUSH - We told you not to start Warren if Najee Harris was active.  Najee Harris was active. 

Wide Receiver (9.9)

1. Curtis Samuel - HIT - Samuel continues to be a target monster. Carson Wentz looked his way another 9 times on Sunday, and he hauled in 7 passes for 78 yards and a touchdown.  Plus, he had a bonus of 21 yards rushing.  Washington’s jack-of-all-trades finished with 22.9 fantasy points, which were WR1 numbers headed into the Monday night game. 

2. Robbie Anderson - MISS - After a stellar Week 1, The Artist Formerly Known as Robby came crashing back to earth in Week 2. He had only 3 catches on 5 targets for 32 yards, and he also lost a fumble.  Not really useful at all.  Still, I’m optimistic that better days are ahead. Let’s wait another couple weeks and see if any patterns emerge in the Carolina passing game. It’s early yet.

3. Donovan Peoples-Jones - MISS - I should have trusted my gut.  I’ve long been “out” on DPJ - he was a 5 star recruit at Michigan but didn’t have a single 100-yard game in college, which is always a big red flag for me - but I recommended him due to his target volume in Week 1.  Well, I guess I should have known better. Peoples-Jones went back being his invisible self in Week 2, drawing only one target.  It appears that Week 1 was a mirage.  I’ll continue to chase volume, but will use better judgment moving forward on players I have historically been down on.  

Tight End (9.35)

1. Gerald Everett - HIT - 6 catches on 10 targets for 71 yards.  It’s good to be tied to an elite QB, and even better when one of that elite QB’s top WR targets misses the game.  Everett finished with a pretty-darn-useful 13.10 fantasy points. He’s now rostered in too many leagues to be given streamer consideration. That’s part of the point of this weekly article - to help you find guys before they explode, so you can start them all year - so hopefully you pounced on Everett while you had the opportunity.

2. Logan Thomas -  HIT - I wish I knew how to insert the gif of the Grinch smiling.  That’s how I feel about the Logan Thomas call.  Everyone was going gaga over Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel - and hey, I was touting Samuel too - but Thomas is the hidden gem in this offense.  He is THE red zone threat for this team, and he showed it on Sunday.  He finished the day with only 3 catches for 37 yards, but one of those grabs was for a touchdown.  When streaming tight ends, you’re largely chasing touchdowns, so you need to focus on the guys who have the best chance of scoring.  Thomas always has a good chance of scoring when they throw in the red zone.

3. Hayden Hurst - MISS - Hurst was pretty involved in this one, seeing 7 targets.  Although he hauled in 5 of them, he was only able to turn those receptions into 24 scoreless yards.  He wound up with 7.4 fantasy points, which didn’t kill you, but it certainly isn’t up to our standards for streamers. 

Moving onto Week 3, below are our weekly Hail Marys.  As always, check the inactives lists prior to kickoff, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:   

Quarterbacks

Marcus Mariota, Falcons (11% rostered).  Mariota brings the Konami Code to the table (i.e., he adds fantasy points with his legs), and on the strength of that ability, he put up 20.8 points in Week 1 (against the New Orleans defense that just stymied Tom Brady) and 16.4 points in Week 2 (and his point output would have been even higher, but for an end zone pick on a Hail Mary at the end of the game).  The schedule gets a bit easier for him in Week 3, as the Falcons are slated to take on the hapless Seahawks.  Even though the game is in Seattle, Marioata presents a reasonably safe floor this week due to his rushing, but also has a high ceiling. 

Joe Flacco, Jets (2%).  Look, Joe Flacco stinks.  I know he’s got a Super Bowl ring and all, but this dude wasn’t even all that good of a player in his prime.  But we can’t deny what he’s been doing with the Jets.  He’s got 300+ yards passing in each of the first two weeks, and in Week 2, he tossed 4 touchdowns.  The Jets seem content to let him chuck it, as he passed 59 times in Week 1 and 44 times in Week 2.  In Week 3, he faces off against the Bengals, who haven’t been able to shake their Super Bowl hangover.  The Bengals have lose their first two games to teams quarterbacked by Mitchell Trubisky and Cooper Rush.  Say what you will about Joe Flacco, but he’s better than those dudes.  If you’re one of those teams who lost Dak Prescott in Week 1 or Trey Lance in Week 2, Flacco may be a guy you want to consider.  [Editor’s note: It pains me to recommend Joe Flacco. I’ve been down on this guy his entire career. This may end up looking like last week’s Donovan Peoples-Jones call.]

Jared Goff, Lions (22%).  I went back and forth on this one, but I decided to stick with Goff and recommend him again this week.  He’s averaging 3 passing scores a game, so we know that his Lions offense can put up points.  His completion percentage has been subpar (below 60% each of the first two weeks), he’s not getting tremendous volume (fewer than 40 pass attempts each game), and the passing yardage just hasn’t been there (215 and 256 yards, respectively), but . . . they’re scoring.  Whatever they’re doing in Detroit, it’s working, and they’re finding ways to get the ball into the end zone.   You’re banking on the scores here, so there’s some risk, but it’s been working out so far.  Goff has great, versatile options at his disposal in Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, D.J. Chark, and T.J. Hockenson.  If we like the surrounding weapons, we need to like the quarterback.  I like the quarterback.

Running Backs

J.D. McKissic, Commanders (23%). C’mon, y’all.  You know we’re going to continue recommending McKissic until he’s rostered in too many leagues to be eligible anymore.  He sees enough work in the passing game that he’s going to be relevant most weeks.  There will be some clunkers here and there, but hopefully this week isn’t one of them. He’s even more valuable in games with negative game script, obviously, because they have to throw more.

Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (13%).  With Damien Williams landing on IR this week, Allgeier was primed for an increased workload. He saw 10 carries, which was encouraging, but he only posted 30 yards on those touches.  Even more concerning, he wasn’t targeted in the passing game. That said, it’s difficult to find guys who should regularly see double-digit touches, which makes Allgeier a worthwhile streamer this week.  

Darrel Williams, Cardinals (3%).  ONLY IF JAMES CONNER DOESN’T PLAY.  ONLY. IF. JAMES. CONNER. DOESN’T. PLAY. Hear me on this, people. ONLY IF CONNER DOESN’T PLAY. Conner suffered an ankle injury in Week 2 and exited the game.  At the time of his writing, his status for Week 3 is unknown.  After Conner left the game against the Raiders, Williams and Eno Benjamin split the workload pretty evenly, but Williams did more with his carries (8 for 59 for Williams vs. 8 for 31 for Benjamin).  If Conner misses this week’s game against the Rams, Williams should likely see another 50/50 workload split with Benjamin.  But again, I wouldn’t recommend him at all if Conner is healthy; if Conner plays, I’m taking a push. 

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson, Jets (22%). This feels a bit like box score chasing, but the fact of the matter is that Wilson is seeing a healthy target volume despite being a rookie.  In Week 1, he saw 8 targets, and in Week 2, he saw 14.  If he’s going to average double-digit looks, we can’t ignore him.  Plus, he’s going up against the Bengals defense.  If we like Joe Flacco, we probably need to be high on one of his pass-catchers. 

Sterling Shepard, Giants (11%).  Who is the last man standing in the Big Blue passing attack?  Rookie Wan’Dale Robinson is injured.  Last year’s first rounder, Kadarius Toney, has been phased out of the offense.  And Kenny Golladay purportedly cleaned out his locker after not being used in Week 2. Sterling Shepard, however, remains an integral part of the Giants passing attack.  He followed up a 65 yard touchdown in Week 1 with a Week 2 effort where he led the team with 10 targets.  By this point in his career, you know what you’re getting with Shepard.  He’s a slot guy who is never going to carry your team, but is probably reliable enough for flex production.  

Josh Palmer, Chargers (27%).  Those who know me know that I am NOT a Josh Palmer fan.  But if Keenan Allen misses this game, he’s a decent bet to see some of the volume that would otherwise have gone to Allen.  It’s never a bad idea to tie yourself to pass-catchers connected to elite quarterbacks.  Assuming Justin Herbert plays (he’s got a rib injury), Palmer is a reasonable spot starter against the dreadful Jaguars secondary this week.  To be clear: Palmer is NOT a recommended streamer if Keenan Allen recovers from his hamstring injury in time to play Week 3. If Allen plays, Palmer is removed from streamer consideration.  But if Allen is out, fire Palmer up with confidence. 

Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst, Bengals (16%).  My preference with streaming tight ends is to find the guys who are tied to good QBs, and Hurst fits that bill.  He’s seen at least 7 targets in each of his games thus far, and Joe Burrow seems to trust him in key situations, looking for him when they need to convert tough third downs.  I suspect that trust will eventually translate into red zone usage, as well. Hurst has been a recommended streamer for HMF every week of the season so far. 

Logan Thomas, Commanders (13%). Another repeat from last week, but Thomas is the key red zone weapon for Washington, and this week they face off against Philadelphia. The Eagles have some decent corners in Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox to match up with the Commanders’ wideout trio of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel, but Philly should have more matchup problems trying to put their linebackers or safeties on Thomas. He should be in line for another productive game.