Good Calls from 2021

Our last column focused on all of the things we got wrong in 2021. Now, I’d like to flip the script, and look back at some of our biggest hits from this past season. We can look back at our processes, and try to figure out if we made the right call for the right reason, or if we just lucky. If we had sound process, that’s something we want to replicate for next season. Specifically, we are going to focus on our RB and WR hits, which were discussed on the Hail Mary Football preseason podcasts.

1. Julio Jones is about to fall off a cliff.  This may have been our best call of the season.  I was down on Julio because of (1) age and (2) injury history. I noted that he was pretty much the same player as A.J. Green - same draft year, same draft capital, similar career numbers - and no one wanted to touch A.J. It boggled my mind that people were investing so heavily in Julio. At the time of the podcast, he was going as the first pick of the fourth round, on average.  But he finished the season as the WR94, with fewer points than guys like Jauan Jennings, Laquon Treadwell, Devin Duvernay, and Freddie Swain. You could have drafted pretty much anyone instead of Julio in Round 4 and been better off.
   The lesson: Avoid using high draft capital (anything in the first 5 rounds) on 30+ year-old wide receivers with injury histories.

2. Deebo Samuel is preferable to Brandon Aiyuk.  At the time of this call, Brandon Aiyuk was going as a 5th round pick, and Samuel was going in Round 9.  My reason for preferring Deebo was, simply, the unknown.  The conventional wisdom was that Aiyuk would be the #1 - but my point in fading Aiyuk was that we didn’t KNOW that.  We assumed, based on what we saw to end the 2020 season, that Aiyuk would be the WR1 for that team.  But my concern was that we hadn’t really seen Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all play together.  Aiyuk’s 2020 breakout came when Deebo was sidelined.  With the uncertainty surrounding this receiving corps, it made sense to invest in the guy who was cheapest, and that was Deebo.  Those who took the cheaper guy in an ambiguous situation were playing for a fantasy title in 2021. 
   The lesson: In ambiguous situations with talented players, take the cheaper guy.

3. The running back drafted outside the first round who has the best chance to be a first round pick in 2022 is Najee Harris.  The logic here was pretty simple: Harris was a lock for 325+ touches, and those types of guys finish as Top 10 (and usually top 8) running backs. Harris wound up with 300+ rush attempts and 94 targets as a rookie, which he turned into 1200 yards rushing, 74 receptions, and 10 total touchdowns. He finished as fantasy’s RB3, behind only Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler. People were fading him because they were worried about his poor offensive line and his aging quarterback. None of it mattered. He delivered, and is a first round lock in 2022.
   The lesson: Projected volume (at least for talented players) trumps offensive line woes.

4. Curtis Samuel is a terrible late round pick.   To be fair, I’ve never been a Curtis Samuel truther. But I was particularly down on him this year because the only decent season of his career was in 2020, when he was finally separated from Scott Turner and had his plays called by Joe Brady. So what did he do in 2021? He joined a team with Scott Turner as his play-caller, the same Scott Turner who showed a complete ineptitude in how to use him properly with the Panthers. Past results with the Samuel-Turner duo were a strong indicator that this was not going to go well.
   The lesson: Pay attention to whether a player has had previous success, or lack thereof, with a particular play-caller.

5. Mike Davis is Alex Collins 2.0.  Mike Davis is a journeyman running back who was a late round draft pick. He’s never been anything special. The only reason people liked him was because they (wrongly) assumed he was the only game in town for the Falcons. I did not take the bait. I predicted he would be dropped in most fantasy formats by the end of Week 7.  He wound up being useless long before that.  He eclipsed 50 yards rushing only once all season. After the team’s Week 6 bye, he failed to receive more than 10 carries in a game. He lost touches to a 30-year-old former wide receiver, Cordarrelle Patterson. Any way you slice it, he was a disappointment.
   The lesson: Although volume is king for running backs, be wary of spending premium draft capital on late-career journeymen who are suddenly thrust into a starting role.

6. The fantasy zombie you want is James Conner.  Conner had been left for dead after a subpar year in Pittsburgh, but was dirt cheap in the desert behind presumed lead back Chase Edmonds.  Anyone who has followed Chase Edmonds’ career knows (a) he’s not a workhorse and (b) he stinks.  We had at least seen Conner carry a load before and deliver as a productive fantasy asset.  So as a mid-round investment, he was a smart pick.  For those who had faith in him, he rewarded them with 18 scores (15 rushing, 3 receiving) and 1100 yards from scrimmage.  
   The lesson: In a backfield committee, lean towards the 6’1, 233 lb. bruiser who has produced as a workhorse before over the 5’9 scatback with a lack of career production.

7. The player you should stay away from this year despite a solid 2020 is Derrick Henry.  I had no concerns with Henry the player.  I had concerns with Henry the workhorse.  He had 400+ touches in 2020, and more than 380 the season before. Running backs just can’t handle that kind of usage.  I predicted his body wouldn’t hold up.  It didn’t. 
   The lesson: Fade running backs who are coming off back-to-back seasons of 375+ touches.

8. The post-hype sleeper you want is Joe Mixon.  In 2020, he was viewed as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.  In 2021, he was seen as a 3rd round guy.  I didn’t get it.  Why?  Just because he played behind a bad offensive line?  There have been lots of RBs over the years who played behind bad lines and were still productive (see Najee Harris, above, or Maurice Jones-Drew in his heydey as examples).  It’s a volume-based game, kids. Talented guys who get volume and get work in the receiving game are always valuable.  Always.  Mixon ended the year third in the league in rushing, with 13 rushing scores, along with 42 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns.  He was a great investment with your third round pick, finishing as the RB4.
   The lesson: Same as with Najee Harris. Don’t overestimate the (negative) effect that a bad offensive line is going to have on a workhorse running back who is involved in the passing game.

9. Select Jonathan Taylor as your first round pick.  Believe it or not, before the season people were pooh-poohing Taylor because they were concerned about the return of Marlon Mack.  They thought Taylor’s absolute tear to end 2020 was a fluke, propelled by bad opponents.  They thought Nyheim Hines would take too much passing game work. They worried about what the offense might look like if Carson Wentz missed games with injury.  I was unconcerned about any of these issues.  Marlon Mack was coming off a torn Achilles tendon, and (before Dont’a Foreman), a RB had never successfully returned from that type of injury in the past.  The end of Taylor’s 2020 season was in line with what we expected based upon his college production and athletic testing.  And yes, while Nyheim Hines was going to take some work, no running back gets 100% of the work to himself.  The Wentz injury was the only thing that mildly concerned me, but I figured he’d be back sooner than later.  And if you bought into Taylor, you were likely competing for a title.
   The lesson: This is one we need to remind ourselves of year over year. Draft talent over situation. Talent wins out.

And that, my friends, is the lesson I’ll leave you with from the 2021 season: Draft talent over situation. Talent wins out.