Bad Calls from 2021
No one has a 100% hit rate. Every year, I am going to botch some calls. Any analyst who claims they never get it wrong is either a liar or delusional. But one of the most important things that we can do is look back at the bad takes and analyze why each particular call missed the mark. Is this something we should have seen coming? Or was the “bad call” the result of a fluke or an injury? Was our process sound, or did we just miss the boat? Below, you will find some of our worst calls from 2021, and how we can learn from those mistakes to improve as fantasy football players. Specifically, we are going to focus on our RB and WR misses, which were discussed on the Hail Mary Football preseason podcasts.
Alvin Kamara will be the safest RB behind Christian McCaffrey. The logic here was that Kamara’s PPR floor made him a “safe” option, and with Michael Thomas out for at least the first third of the season, he was the only game in town for the Saints’ receiving game. Instead, he had his worst NFL campaign. So what was the mistake here? The mistake was assuming that the offense would be the same - and that Kamara’s usage would be the same - as the Saints shifted from Drew Brees to Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill. Temper expectations for Kamara moving forward. His best days are likely in the past.
Calvin Ridley will be the WR1 in fantasy. The logic here was that Julio Jones had been shipped out of town, and Ridley had performed as a stud when Julio missed games in 2019. But he wasn’t the same guy in 2020. Now, I could take a mulligan because no one could have predicted that Ridley would step away from the team due to mental health issues this season. But that’s too much of a cop-out. The truth is, Ridley wasn’t all that great BEFORE his hiatus. While it is possible that his mental health woes contributed to his lack of production, I don’t think we should end the analysis there. The issue, rather, was that Ridley was used differently in 2020 than he had been earlier in his career. His average depth of target dropped precipitously, and his yards per catch went from 15.3 to 9.1. Did he get worse? No, I don’t think so. I just think his role was different. Former Atlanta offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter used him on deeper routes in 2019 than Arthur Smith did in 2020. If he returns to the Falcons next year, it is not unreasonable to expect a return to his 90-catch high from 2019, but it may well be unreasonable for him to expect a return to his career-high 15.3 YPC from that same season. In short: the volume may be there, but the yardage likely will not.
Austin Ekeler is a James White clone. This was the most damaging of all the bad calls, since Ekeler wound up with 20 total touchdowns. Still, I think the logic was sound. I wasn’t “out” on Ekeler; I was just out on him as a first round pick. I liked him more in the second. The reasoning - and I stand by it - was that Ekeler was oft-injured, and that selecting him as a first rounder would have been buying him at his ceiling. Before 2021, he never had a season with more than 3 rushing touchdowns. This year he had 12. Before 2021, he only had one season with more than 3 receiving touchdowns. This year he had 8. Before 2021, he never had more than 560 rushing yards. This year he had over 900. Any way you slice it, this was a career year - propelled, no doubt, by Ekeler’s ability to stay healthy. The lesson here is to prioritize RBs who are going to get a ton of usage - including in the passing game - if they can stay healthy. (Ekeler basically was what I thought Kamara was going to be.) I worried too much about his (injury) floor, and did not put enough into his (production) ceiling. In round 1, we need to focus on guys that can put up enough points to be league-winners. Ekeler can be a league-winner.
Terrace Marshall will be a top rookie WR. Marshall is a guy I bought into because of size and pedigree. Marshall was a five-star recruit coming out of high school, and his 6’2” frame made him one of the bigger wide receivers in this draft class. The issue is, although he was a TD-maker in college, he never commanded a significant target share at LSU. He was third-fiddle on his college team (although, admittedly, one that boasted future NFL stars Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson), and target share is typically a good indicator of NFL success. The takeaway here is that we should not overlook a player’s lack of target share in college, regardless of whether they were playing alongside future NFL talents.
The post-hype sleeper RB you want is Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I fell into the trap I had successfully avoided with CEH as a rookie, when I had faded him everywhere. That trap, of course, is valuing situation over talent. CEH is simply a mediocre NFL talent, which was obvious after the NFL scouting combine in 2019. Those are generally guys to avoid unless they unquestionably have the backfield to themselves. He didn’t. ‘Nuff said.
Jaylen Waddle will not be a top rookie WR. Welp, that was a pretty awful take. Waddle is one of only two rookie WRs in NFL history with 100 or more catches (Anquan Boldin is the other). My concern with Waddle heading into this season was that he had never even started a full year’s worth of games over three seasons in college. I put too much stock into that one stat (games started). I also paid too little attention to his production and tape. Waddle was clearly the best receiver on his Alabama team, one that included record-setting Heisman Trophy winner Devonta Smith. Waddle’s lack of starts had probably more to due with health than anything else (and, to be sure, playing on a team with first-round talents like Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs, Jameson Williams, and Jerry Jeudy also probably limited opportunities to start more games). The chief lesson here is not to overrate college starts. Sometimes coaching staffs just misuse players.
Phillip Lindsay is the fantasy zombie you want. Fantasy zombies are guys who are left for dead who get a “second life” after they’ve been cast aside. My logic in recommending Lindsay was that he had two 1,000 yard campaigns in three NFL seasons and was going to a Texans team where the backfield was wide open. Unfortunately, he did not capitalize, and was ultimately waived and wound up with the Dolphins. The lesson here is to avoid overrating undrafted free agents who are not retained by their original teams and who are not highly sought after free agent targets. They were undrafted free agents for a reason, and their original teams gave up on them for a reason.
We should be able to take what we’ve learned from these misses and improve on our processes for next year to avoid making the same mistakes. And we had fewer misses than hits this year, for what it’s worth. Our next column will focus on the things that we got right, as we helped many of our readers compete for fantasy titles this year.