Weekly Hail Mary: Week 15
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 3 of 8 recommended plays last week, for a 38% success rate:
Quarterback (18.5 points minimum)
Taysom Hill - HIT - Hill was a Top-5 QB on the week. The Konami Code is real, and he gives you such a huge boost with his legs. He had 73 yards rushing and 2 rushing scores to supplement his 175 yards passing.
Cam Newton - MISS - He mustered just over 15 fantasy points, mostly on the strength of 47 yards rushing and a rushing TD. It was disappointing, given his smash spot against the Falcons.
Trevor Lawrence - MISS - Lawrence had one of his worst games of the season, tossing 4 picks and no touchdowns.
Running Back (8.1)
Adrian Peterson - PUSH - Peterson was declared inactive before the game.
Wide Receiver (11.4)
K.J. Osborn - HIT - Osborn had a long score in this one, and finished his day with 3 catches for 83 yards. He posted 17.3 fantasy points, making him a top-20 WR play for the week.
Sterling Shepard - MISS - Shepard was back, but didn’t really make his presence felt. He mustered just 2 catches for 27 yards.
Tim Patrick - MISS - The Broncos featured their running game in this one and never had much reason to pass. Patrick had only 2 grabs.
Tight End (9.0)
Evan Engram - MISS - One measly catch for 8 yards. Engram desperately needs a change of scenery, which he should get this offseason.
David Njoku - PUSH - Njoku was ruled out early in the week, so on Wednesday we updated our article and instructed you to pivot to teammate Austin Hooper.
Austin Hooper - HIT - The Ravens are terrible against the tight end, and it continued on Sunday. Hooper was a top-5 tight end on the week, hauling in 5 catches and finding the end zone.
The fantasy playoffs start in Week 15, so this article brings to a close our recommendations for the 2021 regular season. We hope we helped you make the playoffs in your league this year! In the coming weeks, we will be doing recaps of our recommendations this season, with a bit of introspection on how we can do better moving forward. Thanks for reading this year, and good luck in the playoffs!