Weekly Hail Mary: Week 10
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 2 of 8 recommended plays last week, for a 25% success rate. Probably our worst week ever in 5 years of doing this. Better days are ahead. A recap of Week 9:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Jameis Winston/Andy Dalton - MISS - Primetime Blandy was Primetime Blandy. He had under 12 fantasy points, tossing 1 TD to 1 INT and throwing for only 210 yards. Unfortunately, he was our most productive QB steamer this week. Woof.
Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis - MISS - He got off to a promising start, but was dreadful in the second half and didn’t toss any touchdowns. Only 7.2 fantasy points.
Marcus Mariota - MISS - the Falcons scored through the running game in this one, and Mariota was actually significantly worse than he usually is through the air. He had fewer than 130 yards passing.
Running Back (8.15)
Caleb Huntley - PUSH - We withdrew our recommendation after the news broke that Cordarrelle Patterson was activated from injured reserve.
Wide Receiver (9.9)
Josh Palmer - HIT - Volume is the name of the game. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out with injuries, the passing game was funneled through Palmer. He responded in a big way, snagging 8 passes for 106 yards. He wound up with an impressive 18.6 fantasy points. Start your wide receivers against the Falcons, kids!
Terrace Marshall - HIT - The sneaky play pays off! Marshall was the only thing that the Panthers’ passing attack had going on Sunday, and he found the end zone. He finished with 14.3 fantasy points.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - MISS - Dude totally whiffed in a great matchup. Such is life with fantasy whack-a-mole MVS, who is easily the most inconsistent wideout in fantasy. You just never know when he’s going to go off, and never know when he’s going to flop completely.
Tight End (9.35)
Will Dissly - MISS - Right process, wrong player. The Cardinals are the worst team in the league against the tight end, but it was teammate Noah Fant, not Will Dissly, who went off in this one. Fant had 14.6 points, on the strength of 5 catches for 96 yards. Dissly had a meager 5.4 points (3 for 24). Trust the process, folks. The process here was good, we just identified the wrong tight end for the Seahawks.
Logan Thomas - MISS - Still clearly not at 100%, Thomas was an afterthought in the passing game. He had only 3 targets and failed to corral any of them.
Moving onto Week 10, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton/Jameis Winston, Saints (15%/13%). Whichever guy is under center for the Saints, fire ‘em up against the Steelers. Dalton has a lot of familiarity playing in Pittsburgh from his time with the Bengals, so I feel slightly better about him, but either way it’s a good matchup.
Baker Mayfield, Panthers (4%). It’s with great trepidation. I don’t trust Mayfield at all, and it’s a short week. But they’re playing at home against the Falcons, and you’ve got to trust the process. Atlanta is bottom-5 against opposing fantasy passers, so Mayfield - assuming he gets the start - is primed for a big game. Obviously, ignore this recommendation if PJ Walker or Sam Darnold is named the starter, but after Walker’s benching in Week 9 and the spark that Baker gave the offense, it seems inevitable that Baker will be starting in Week 10.
Running Backs
Zack Moss, Colts (4%). Only if Jonathan Taylor doesn’t play. But the Colts insisted on getting Moss back in the Nyheim Hines deal, which tells you they have a plan for him. I like his skill set better than Deon Jackson, who got nicked up on Sunday against the Patriots.
Wide Receivers
Terrace Marshall, Panthers (6%). Remember what I said in the recap piece on Josh Palmer, above? Start your wide receivers against the Falcons, kids. Marshall gets the Falcons in Week 10 - at home, no less - and he had 12.7 points against them when they faced off a couple weeks ago.
Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (25%). The matchup isn’t great, but at this point, I believe Robinson is the biggest threat in the Giants’ passing attack. For that reason, I’m ignoring the matchup and focusing on the expected workload. He seems like a safe bet for 6-7 targets, and that’s the sort of volume you can use.
Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich, Broncos (34%). A bunch of teams dropped him during the bye, it seems, as he is eligible for streamer consideration. He’s been absolutely outstanding since being activated from IR, finishing as a top 12 tight end every week. Fire him up with confidence against the Titans.
Cade Otton, Buccaneers (11%). He’s about the only thing going right for the Bucs’ offense right now. He had a touchdown called back on a penalty in Week 8, and had the game-winning touchdown in Week 9. This team clearly trusts him in the red zone, and he faces off against the Seahawks in Week 10. No one gives up more fantasy points to tight ends than the Seahawks. [Sunday morning edit: Cam Brate is back this week and will start, so adjust your lineup decisions accordingly.]