Weekly Hail Mary: Week 9
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 3 of 8 recommended plays last week, for a 38% success rate. This was easily our worst week of the season. It happens. It was only the second time all year we’ve been below 50%. We can and will do better. Here’s how our Week 8 streamers fared:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Andy Dalton - HIT - You always feel a little bit icky starting Dalton, but in 1 p.m. games that are only regionally televised, he’s usually money. He had his typical ho-hum Andy Dalton performance - 229 yards passing and 2 TDs - but he played turnover-free football and finished with 17.16 fantasy points. It’s nothing to write home about, but it’s enough to qualify as a hit.
Marcus Mariota - HIT - I thought Mariota was a floor play, but he ended up turning in his best performance of the season - 253 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, and 43 yards rushing. Sure, he had a couple picks, but we’re not going to complain. The dude finished with 24.42 fantasy points.
Running Back (8.15)
D’Onta Foreman - HIT - We done told ya! Foreman EXPLODED on Sunday with over 100 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. He was a Top-5 RB play on the week, finishing with 31.8 points.
Kyren Williams - PUSH - Williams was not activated from IR.
Damien Williams - PUSH - He was not activated for this game. He remains on IR for the 7th week in a row.
Wide Receiver (9.9)
Parris Campbell - MISS - This one hurts, because it was just barely. Campbell had 9.1 fantasy points, with 28 yards rushing and 2 receptions for 43 yards. If you started him, you’re probably ok with that production, but for purposes of our calculations, he’s a miss. Them’s the breaks.
Braxton Berrios - MISS - Big miss. He didn’t show up in the box score. Yeesh. Bad game for the Jets.
Wan’Dale Robinson - MISS - Daniel Jones was horrendous in this game, and didn’t target Robinson much. He needs to realize that needs to change moving forward.
Tyquan Thornton - MISS - Only one catch for 13 yards. He’s better when Zappe is the QB.
Tight End (9.35)
Cade Otton - MISS - 2 catches for 15 yards and only 3.5 fantasy points. The entire passing offense surprisingly struggled against the Ravens. Otton did have a touchdown called back on a penalty, which hurts, as that would have made him a hit for the week.
Moving onto Week 9, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston/Andy Dalton (18%/14% rostered). Whichever QB is playing gets the Ravens. This ain’t your daddy’s Ravens defense (even if they did just get Roquan Smith). They’ve gotten carved up by many opposing passers this year, Tom Brady’s Week 8 clunker notwithstanding.
Marcus Mariota, Falcons (26%). Like last week, I view Mariota as more of a floor play. But the Chargers pass defense has been leaky this year, and you know Mariota can bring it with his legs.
Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis (14%/8%). Whoever is playing the Chiefs, fire them up. The Chiefs are bottom-3 against opposing QBs, and both of these dudes can run a little bit. Plus, it’s the Sunday Night Football game, so you know you’ll get to see it.
Running Backs
Caleb Huntley, Falcons (4%). You’re praying for a touchdown here, but the Falcons take on the Chargers in Week 9, and the Chargers are bottom-3 against opposing rushers. Also, we’ve recommended Damien Williams like 700 times by now, so if he’s active I’d play him over Huntley. It’s a really lean week at running back this week with 6 teams on bye. [Sunday morning update: Cordarrelle Patterson has been activated, so avoid Huntley. He is no longer a recommended streamer.]
Wide Receivers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (34%). I think this is the first time all year his rostership percentage has been low enough to qualify as a streamer, and what an opportune time. The Chiefs get the Titans on Sunday Night Football, and the Titans are bottom-2 in the NFL against opposing wideouts.
Josh Palmer, Chargers (23%). I’m on record with my belief that Josh Palmer is tremendously mediocre as a talent. But if he gets cleared from the concussion protocol, he should get ample opportunity to feast against a Falcon defense that is the friendliest to opposing wideouts in the league. With Keenan Allen still nursing his hamstring injury and Mike Williams out for the foreseeable future with an injury of his own, the opportunities should be there for Palmer.
Terrace Marshall, Panthers (1%). With Robbie Anderson shipped out of town, Marshall played 93% of the team’s snaps in Week 8. He saw 9 targets, catching 4 of them for 87 yards (over 12 fantasy points). He faces off against the Bengals in Week 9, which is a tough matchup on paper. However, the Bengals just lost star CB Chido Awuzie to injury, and #2 corner Eli Apple is battling injury issues of his own. DJ Moore is likely to draw coverage from rookie Cam Taylor-Britt if Apple and Awuzie are out, meaning Marshall is likely to be covered by a #4 corner. He’s a sneaky streamer play, both due to projected volume and due to a better-than-you-think matchup.
Tight Ends
Will Dissly, Seahawks (13%). Dissly splits time with Noah Fant, and I don’t really trust the dude. That said, he gets the Cardinals in Week 9, who are bottom-2 against opposing fantasy tight ends. Wouldn’t be surprising to see him find pay dirt this week.
Logan Thomas, Commanders (6%). ONLY IF HE PLAYS. Thomas has been battling a calf strain for several weeks. But if he’s active against the Vikings, you have to start him. Only 5 teams give up more fantasy points to tight ends than Minnesota.