Weekly Hail Mary: Week 11

Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary.  If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer...  a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is! 

Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big.  Think of it as a dart throw column.  These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn.  They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire.  We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position.  Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.  Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.   

Our determination of hits and misses is objective.  We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:

Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.  

Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season. 

Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Regrettably, folks, last week - Week 10 of 2022 - was HMF’s worst week ever in 5 years of doing this.  Just a complete bomb.  We didn’t get a single streamer right.  It’s embarrassing, but we’ve got to be transparent about our misses. There’s no other way to maintain credibility.  Our bad calls from last week:  

Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)

1. Andy Dalton - MISS - I should have known better.  As a long-suffering Bengals fan, I know that Dalton always craps the bed against the Steelers.  He may be in a new uniform, but it was the same result.  He had only 9.06 fantasy points, with a couple picks and only one TD.  I wouldn’t be surprising to see Jameis Winston back under center in Week 11.   

2. Baker Mayfield - PUSH - P.J. Walker started in this one.  We warned you against Mayfield if Walker were to be the starter.  Walker predictably stunk.  The team has already announced it’s turning to Mayfield in Week 11 . . . which should have been their move in Week 10. 

Running Back (8.15)

1. Zack Moss - MISS - Jonathan Taylor was back, which curtailed any chance Moss had at a meaningful workload.  

Wide Receiver (9.9)

1. Terrace Marshall - MISS - One catch for 43 yards against a terrible Falcons secondary.  Bleh. 

2. Wan’Dale Robinson - MISS - Only two catches for 20 yards against a much-better-than-you-think Houston secondary (top 3 in the league), and a rush for -5 yards.  The schedule gets more favorable from here, though. 

Tight End (9.35)

1. Greg Dulcich - MISS - He was the second-most targeted Bronco, but just couldn’t haul in many of those targets.  He had only one catch for 11 yards. 

2. Cade Otton - PUSH - We posted on Sunday morning that Cameron Brate would be active, which negated the Otton recommendation.  

Moving onto Week 11, below are the weekly Hail Marys.  As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:   

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill, Titans (13% rostered).  In his return from injury, Tannethrill tossed a couple touchdowns against a tough Denver defense.  He doesn’t have an ideal situation this week - going up against a Green Bay defense on the road in a short week - but it’s pretty ugly out there in terms of streamers and potential matchups this week.  I don’t feel great about Tannehill, but he’s the best of an uninspiring bunch. 

Marcus Mariota, Falcons (33%).  Mariota, as usual, is a floor play.  But he faces off against a Bears defense that is fairly average, and is worse against the run than the pass.  That favors someone like Mariota, who likes to tuck and run.   He’s been a viable streamer in 70% of his games this year (ok, one of his games he missed by .36, but close enough).  He’s a good bet to at least get you through a bye week this week. 

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs (24%). Pacheco took over as the primary ball-carrier for the Chiefs in Week 10, turning 16 carries into 82 yards. He gets the Chargers in Week 11, who are one of the most favorable matchups in the league for opposing rushers.  And being tied to the Chiefs high-octane offense obviously is a plus. 

Wide Receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (35%). I’m sticking with Wan’Dale even though he’s turned in two stinkers in a row.  The Giants face off against the Lions in Week 11, who are one of the top 5 friendliest defenses for opposing wideouts.  Wan’Dale is just a tick too high to qualify for the streamer list, but I’m recommending him anyway because I suspect his rostership percentage comes down on Tuesday/Wednesday in the wake of his back-to-back clunker games.   

Christian Watson, Packers (9%).  Always be wary of buying into last week’s box score.  The reason I’m ok with Watson here is because (a) they play at home, against Tennessee, on a short week, and (b) no one else has emerged for Aaron Rodgers.  What better way to get Rodgers’ trust than to catch 3 tuddies and go for over 100 yards?  The Tennessee secondary is bottom-3, so certainly some Packers wideout is likely to have a good day.  Maybe it’s Allen Lazard.  But maybe, just maybe, it’s Watson.  

Van Jefferson, Rams (7%).  If Cooper Kupp is forced to miss time - and that seems to be all but a certainty at this point - someone is going to have to step up for the Rams.  Allen Robinson looks cooked, so Jefferson may be the only viable option. 

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin, Jets (14%). Conk Daddy has tailed off after a hot start to the season, but the matchup here is favorable. New England is a top-10 matchup for tight ends, and the last time these two teams faced off, Conklin had nearly 26 fantasy points.