Weekly Hail Mary: Week 13
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on just 2 of 8 recommended plays last week, for a 25% success rate. But if you followed our recommendation and started Zay Jones, you probably won your week! Here’s a recap of the Week 12 streamers:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Matt Ryan - MISS - Well, Ryan turned in a real stinker this week despite a cake matchup. The dude’s arm looks totally shot. Shades of 2021 Ben Roethlisberger. He mustered only 12.16 fantasy points.
Running Back (8.15)
Samaje Perine - HIT - Perine filled in for Joe Mixon and finished with 19.3 fantasy points. He had 58 yards rushing and a score, and 4 catches for 35 yards. Solid outing for an injury fill-in.
Cam Akers - MISS - Cam Akers stinks. He had 8 rushes for 35 yards, and no catches. He mustered just 3.7 fantasy points. This offense is broken, and so is he. And he’s not even the lead guy anymore. Kyren Williams had more touches.
Wide Receiver (9.9)
Zay Jones - HIT - Jones was one of the biggest smashes of the week. If you started him, you probably won your matchup this week. He had 11 catches for 145 yards, plus the game-winning 2 point conversion for the Jaguars, en route to 27.5 fantasy points.
Parris Campbell - MISS - Campbell was a victim of Matt Ryan’s ineptitude on Monday Night. He finished with only 2 catches for 14 yards despite having the most favorable matchup possible.
Jahan Dotson - MISS - Against the second worst pass D in the NFL and Dotson manages just one measly target? It’s baffling. They relied on this guy extensively the first quarter of the season, and now they’re treating him like a pariah. He can’t be started barring an injury to one of the guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
Tyquan Thornton - MISS - Thornton just wasn’t a part of the game plan. He posted a goose egg.
Tight End (9.35)
Noah Fant - MISS - Just 3 for 34 in a cake matchup against the Raiders that wound up being a shootout. Only 6.4 fantasy points. Didn’t kill you, but certainly not up to our standards.
Moving onto Week 13, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterbacks
Mike White, Jets (4% rostered). What more do you need to see? He destroyed the Bengals last year and torched the Bears this past week. He has soft matchups in three of the next four weeks, getting the Vikings in Week 13, the Lions in Week 15, and the Jaguars in Week 16, all of whom are top-10 matchups for fantasy passers. And he’s got decent weapons to work with in Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Tyler Conklin.
Bonus name: Marcus Mariota, Falcons (39% rostered). He doesn’t technically qualify - he exceeds our rostership maximum by 5% - but he’s probably available in your league. He faces off against the Steelers this week, and Pittsburgh is a top-5 matchup for opposing passers. Like always, Mariota is a floor play, but if you’re someone looking for a bye week fill-in for Kyler Murray, he’s a safe option.
Running Backs
Zonovan Knight, Jets (0%). Knight split work with Michael Carter on Sunday until Carter went down with an injury, and Knight ended his day with more than 100 yards from scrimmage. If he gets the job to himself, he’s going to see enough volume to be relevant.
JaMychal Hasty, Jaguars (3%). ONLY IF TRAVIS ETIENNE DOESN’T PLAY. Etienne left Sunday’s game early with an injury, thrusting Hasty into a starring role. His rushing yardage left something to be desired, but he was involved in the passing game and did find the end zone. The Jags square off against the Lions on Sunday, who can definitely be beaten via the passing game.
Bonus name: Kyren Williams, Rams (36%). Williams barely doesn’t qualify, but he’s taken over as the lead back for the Rams. Their offensive weapons are dropping like flies, so he may see a heavy workload. Plus, he gets a favorable matchup against the Seahawks in Week 13, a team that Josh Jacobs just destroyed. Now, Williams isn’t quite Jacobs as a runner, but he’s not some JAG, either.
Wide Receivers
Zay Jones, Jaguars (25%). He’s probably going to be a hot name this week given his strong Week 12, but Jones profiles for a couple more strong showings over the next two weeks. He has road matchups against Detroit and Tennessee, and both of them have beatable secondaries.
Richie James, Giants (1%). He’s got back-to-back weeks with at least 13 fantasy points, albeit on limited volume. This week he faces off against the Commanders, who are one of the top-10 matchups for opposing wideouts.
Elijah Moore, Jets (26%). Sigh. I guess we’ll get back on Moore, even though he had only 2 targets on Sunday (though one went for a score). With Mike White under center, the offense is functional. Garrett Wilson had 8 targets, but no other Jet had more than 3. Let’s ride this out and see what happens against the Vikings, who are a top 5 matchup for opposing wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin, Jets (18%). Like Elijah Moore, with Mike White under center, Conklin actually has a chance to be productive. (Zach Wilson is just so bad.) Conklin had 3 catches for 50 yards with Mike White in Week 12, and he gets a soft matchup against the Vikings in Week 13. Aside from having a top-10 matchup, Conk Daddy also has the benefit of having a #revengegame as motivation. (No, I don’t believe in revenge games. I just wanted to use the hashtag, because it amuses me.) My only reluctance here is that HMF’s streamers are Jets-heavy this week, and it’s unlikely that *all* of them hit. And if none of them hit, it’s going to be a particularly brutal week.