Weekly Hail Mary: Week 14
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 2 of 8 recommended plays last week, for a 25% success rate. The general theme is that the Jets giveth, and the Jets taketh away:
Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)
Mike White - HIT - He didn’t throw any touchdowns, but he did rush one in himself, and passed for more than 350 yards. He finished with 19.46 fantasy points, which is more than enough from a streamer.
Marcus Mariota - MISS - Wow, what a stinker. Mariota had a tasty matchup against a beatable Steelers defense and finished with his second lowest point total of the season. Only 11.38 measly fantasy points.
Running Back (8.15)
Zonovan Knight - HIT - He had 16.8 fantasy points, with over 100 yards from scrimmage and 5 catches. He looks like a legit asset for as long as Michael Carter is out.
Kyren Williams - MISS - I can’t figure out the Rams. Down most offensive weapons, and one week after Williams led the team in touches, the Rams gave him only 3 carries and 1 target in Week 13. Just a real stinker of an outing, which was quite surprising given his usage the previous week. Maybe Cam Akers is a thing again?
JaMychal Hasty - PUSH - Hasty was recommended only if Travis Etienne didn’t play. Etienne played.
Wide Receiver (9.9)
Richie James - MISS - James caught every target thrown his way, but unfortunately, he saw only 3 of them. He had only 20 yards receiving and 5.0 fantasy points.
Zay Jones - MISS - Fresh off a 145-yard outing, Jones just couldn’t corral the numerous passes thrown his way in Week 13. He saw 7 targets, which is great, but he caught only 2 of them for 7 yards.
Elijah Moore - MISS - Kind of like Jones, Moore saw a decent number of targets (6), but he caught only 2 passes for 7 yards.
Tight End (9.35)
Tyler Conklin - MISS - Good process, bad result. Conklin saw 7 targets, and you really can’t ask for much more out of a tight end. But he hauled in only 2 of those passes, for just 9 yards.
Given that the fantasy playoffs start in most leagues in Week 15, this Week 14 column will be our last Weekly Hail Mary of the season. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill, Titans (17% rostered). A matchup with the Jaguars is just what the doctor-ordered. Jacksonville is fantasy-friendly to opposing passers, and I always like starting veteran quarterbacks at home.
Tyler Huntley, Ravens (1%). Huntley will take over for the injured Lamar Jackson, and he can run a little bit himself. We are always interested in QB streamers with rushing upside (i.e., the Konami Code), and Huntley also gets a matchup against the Steelers, who are a top-7 matchup for opposing passers.
Running Backs
DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks (3%). ONLY IF KENNY WALKER DOESN’T PLAY. But Walker suffered an ankle injury in Week 13, and Dallas was the next man up. At this point in the season, you can’t ignore running backs who are going to receive the bulk of the carries.
Wide Receivers
Demarcus Robinson, Ravens (12%). Robinson has more than 11 points in 2 of his past 3 games. He is the Ravens de facto #1 receiver. He gets the Steelers this week, who are the most favorable matchup in the NFL for opposing wideouts.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry, Patriots (35%). I don’t love Henry or the Pats’ offense, but look, he’s playing the Cardinals. Nearly all tight ends go off against the Cardinals; they are the most favorable matchup in the NFL for opposing tight ends. Fire up Henry with confidence, and pray that he doesn’t get vultured by Jonnu Smith.