Weekly Hail Mary: Week 12

Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!

Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.

Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:

Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.

Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.

Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Back in the saddle! After two subpar weeks, we’re back above 50%. We hit on 5 of 7 recommended plays last week, for a 71% success rate:

Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)

Ryan Tannehill - HIT - Playing on Thursday Night Football against a Green Bay defense that has been top 5 against opposing passers, Tanne-thrill delivered. He had over 325 yards passing and a couple scores, finishing with more than 20 fantasy points. In a low-scoring week, he was a top 10 option.
Marcus Mariota - HIT - Mariota, as always, is a floor play. But he continues to rack up startable - i.e., top 12 - fantasy performances at quarterback due to his safe rushing floor. In Week 11 it was no different. He had 131 passing yards and a touchdown, and 25 rushing yards and a touchdown. Since he played turnover-free football, that was enough to propel him to 17.74 fantasy points.

Running Back (8.15)

Isiah Pacheco - HIT - 10.7 fantasy points. That happens when you rush for over 100 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been phased out of the offense.

Wide Receiver (9.9)

Wan’Dale Robinson - HIT - He had 9 catches, 100 yards, and 19.4 fantasy points. He was one of the top WRs on the week and likely helped carry your fantasy squad in what was a pretty low-scoring week overall. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn ACL in this one and is done for the season.
Christian Watson - HIT - On Thursday Night Football, he had 4 catches, 48 yards, and 2 scores. He’s like Cris Carter in his prime: “All he does is catch touchdowns.” Assuming health, Watson is here to stay. He’s a WR2/3 the rest of the way. Unfortunately, he’ll no longer be eligible as a streamer moving forward, as he went from being rostered in only 9% of leagues last week to being rostered in nearly 75% of leagues by the time Sunday’s games rolled around.
Van Jefferson - MISS - Jefferson had only 3 catches for 41 yards, good enough for 7.1 fantasy points. He likely would have had a bit more but his production suffered as a result of Matthew Stafford’s concussion.

Tight End (9.35)

Tyler Conklin - MISS - Belichick wasn’t going to let lightning strike twice, and they held Conklin to only 2 receptions for 15 yards. The Jets offense is borderline unplayable with Zach Wilson at quarterback.

Moving onto Week 12, below are our weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan, Colts (16% rostered). Interim coach Jeff Saturday has this team playing well, and all of the offensive weapons are finally healthy. The Colts have a home date against the Steelers on Monday Night Football, and the Steelers are vulnerable against the pass (top 10 matchup for opposing passers). Ryan doesn’t bring any sort of threat with his legs, so he’s going to have to do it with his arm, but he’s in a good spot to do just that. You’re hoping for around 240 yards passing and a couple scores here. It’s a tough week for streamers at quarterback.

Running Backs

Cam Akers, Rams (27%). I know, I know. I know, okay? There’s no bigger Cam Akers basher than me. I just don’t trust running backs who have suffered a torn Achilles. They’re just never the same. But if he’s going to see 14 touches like he did in Week 11, I can’t ignore him. Stafford is in the concussion protocol, so they may lean on the run, and they play the Chiefs, who are a top-10 matchup for opposing rushers. At this point in the season, it’s a rarity to be able to find a RB getting around 15 touches per game on the waiver wire.

Samaje Perine, Bengals (27%). ONLY IF JOE MIXON MISSES THE GAME. Mixon was knocked out of the Bengals’ Week 11 win over the Steelers with a concussion. If he doesn’t clear the concussion protocol in time for Week 12, Perine will be the next man up. The same Perine who had 3 touchdowns against Pittsburgh. He can carry the load if called upon, and be productive.

Wide Receivers

Jahan Dotson, Commanders (18%). I’m just playing the matchup here. No team in the NFL is more friendly to opposing fantasy wideouts than Washington’s Week 12 opponent, the Falcons. Dotson hasn’t really done anything since having four touchdowns through the first four weeks, but if there were ever a good opportunity to hit pay dirt, it would have to be this week against the Dirty Birds.

Zay Jones, Jaguars (19%). This is the streamer that I recommend with the greatest trepidation. Because Zay Jones isn’t a good player. He really isn’t. But he does tend to produce when facing defenses that are among the top-10-friendliest for opposing fantasy wideouts. In every such matchup he’s had this year, he’s had at least 12.5 fantasy points. He starts a three-game stretch this week with those types of favorable matchups - Baltimore, @Detroit, @Tennessee - so he’s not a bad player to pick up and use for the next several weeks.

Tyquan Thornton, Patriots (2%). The Patriots face the Vikings in Minnesota on Thursday Night Football this week. That’s relevant because Minnesota is one of the 3 most favorable matchups for opposing wide receivers. The last time Thornton faced a bottom-half-of-the-league defense, he exploded for 21 fantasy points. Just playing a hunch here, but given the soft matchup, there’s a chance we could see another explosion.

BONUS NAME: Parris Campbell, Colts (40%). He’s barely above our eligibility thresholds, but I’m throwing him out here because he’s still available in 3 out of every 5 leagues. In his past 3 games with Matt Ryan under center, he’s had at least 5 receptions and 65 yards. He faces off against Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football this week, and Pittsburgh is THE most favorable matchup for fantasy wideouts this year. Don’t out-think the room on this one.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant, Seahawks (10%). It could always be Will Dissly, who seems to show up whenever we rely on Fant, and vice versa. But the Seahawks face the Raiders this week, who are bottom-5 against the tight end. He’s got a good chance of finding pay dirt. He’s had at least 7.2 fantasy points in every game against a bottom-5 opponent this season.