Weekly Hail Mary: Week 8

Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!

Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position. Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs. Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.

Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:

Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.

Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season.

Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

We hit on 4 of 10 recommended plays last week, for a 40% success rate:

Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)

Davis Mills - HIT - 300 yards and a couple tuddies, and Mills was a Top 10 quarterback on the week. He had 19.08 fantasy points, which may not seem like a lot, but it was a fairly low-scoring week for QBs.
Matt Ryan - MISS - Pretty ugly day for Ryan in this one, which is pretty tough to swallow given how soft the matchup was. He had 243 yards passing and a couple picks for 11.92 fantasy points. And now he’s been benched for Sam Ehlinger. Ouch.
Cooper Rush - PUSH - Dak Prescott was back, and we warned you not to play Rush if Dak was active.

Running Back (8.15)

D’Onta Foreman - HIT - Although Chuba Hubbard vultured the touchdown, Foreman was the primary ball-carrier for the CMC-less Panthers. He wound up with 16.5 fantasy points, on the strength of 118 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards. He’s probably a viable RB2 most weeks moving forward.
Rachaad White - MISS - The Bucs’ offense was dysfunctional all afternoon. White had 6 rushes for 24 yards and 1 catch for 8 yards. Not good enough.
J.D. McKissic - MISS - I don’t know if its the switch to Taylor Heinicke at QB or the emergence of Brian Robinson at RB, but the last two weeks McKissic has been a complete afterthought in the offense. It will be a sad day if we can’t rely on him as a streamer anymore; he’s been the face of HMF for several years.
Damien Williams - PUSH - We advised that the recommendation was only in effect if Williams was activated, but he remains on IR.

Wide Receiver (9.9)

Wan’Dale Robinson - HIT - 6 receptions for 50 yards, resulting in 11 fantasy points. That’s all it takes, kids.
Donovan Peoples-Jones - HIT - 6 receptions for 71 yards, but he also lost a fumble. He finished with 12.1 fantasy points.
Tyquan Thornton - MISS - Good process, bad results. No Patriot wideout was targeted more than Thornton, but he mustered only one catch for 19 scoreless yards. Better days are ahead. Stay patient.

Tight End (9.35)

Chig Okonwko - MISS - Right process, wrong player. The Colts are terrible against tight ends, so it seemed likely that a Titans tight end would have a big day. Unfortunately, it was Austin Hooper, not Okonkwo. Hooper paced all Tennessee pass-catchers with 56 yards.
Mo Alie-Cox - MISS - Just a complete whiff. No excuse.

Moving onto Week 8, below are the weekly Hail Marys. As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:

Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston, Saints (20% rostered). Assuming he’s healthy. If it’s still the Blandy Dalton show, obviously ignore this. But if Winston is back and healthy, you’ve got to fire him up against the Raiders. No one gives up more fantasy points to opposing passers than the Raiders. They made Davis Freaking Mills viable last week, for crying out loud.[10/28 update: Dalton has been named the starter this week. You can go ahead and fire him up against the Raiders.]

Marcus Mariota, Falcons (29%). Winston [Dalton] is the ceiling play, and Mariota is the floor play. He usually winds up with between 16-20 points, mostly on the strength of his rushing. They face the Panthers this week, which isn’t exactly a favorable matchup - look what they just did to Tom Brady - but, again, the rushing.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams, Rams (30%). ONLY IF HE’S ACTIVATED FROM IR. But with Cam Akers exiled, Williams should play a role, because Darrell Henderson does not have the frame to be a bell-cow back. Williams showed pass-catching chops at Notre Dame, so he may be able to carve out a role as the third-down guy.

Damien Williams, Falcons (3%). For the 4th week in a row, ONLY IF HE’S ACTIVATED FROM IR. But Williams should slot in as the primary ball-carrier for the Falcons whenever he returns, and they face the Panthers this week. You can run a little bit on the Panthers (part of the reason I recommended Mariota).

Bonus name: D’Onta Foreman, Panthers (49%). He’s too heavily owned to technically count for streamer consideration, but he’s available in more than half of leagues, so you should at least take a gander. He’s a RB2 from here on out. He gets Atlanta in Week 8, and they’re middle-of-the-pack against opposing rushers, so he’s a reasonable start.

Wide Receivers

Wan’Dale Robinson (29%). This will probably be the last week we can recommend Wan’Dale, as most fantasy players are catching on. He has a tough matchup against a better-than-you-think Seattle secondary, but I’m still comfortable with him this week.

Braxton Berrios, Jets (3%). Corey Davis has an MCL sprain. Elijah Moore is getting phased out of the offense. Who are they gonna use beyond Garrett Wilson? My gut says Berrios, who has been an unsung hero for the Jets in the past. They find creative ways to get him the ball, kind of like how the Commanders use Curtis Samuel.

Parris Campbell, Colts (4%). Two weeks in a row with a touchdown. Ride out the heater. He faces the Commanders in Week 8, who aren’t great against the pass.

Tyquan Thornton, Patriots (11%). He’s been useful so far, but he’s not been good enough to draw shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner. Don’t be surprised if he gets deep for a score against the Jets in Week 8.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton, Buccaneers (14%). Only if Cam Brate is out. I’m reluctant to recommend a guy playing on Thursday Night Football - they’re typically low-scoring games, last week notwithstanding - but Tampa is the home team this week, and typically those teams fare a bit better on the short weeks. I think Tom Brady is going to come out angry after his stinker in Week 7, and will look to throw all over the hapless Ravens’ secondary.