Weekly Hail Mary: Week 7

Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary.  If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer...  a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is! 

Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big.  Think of it as a dart throw column.  These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn.  They are the lottery tickets who are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire.  We only choose from players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. Generally, we will be recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically no more than three) at each position.  Last year, we hit at a 45% rate, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.  Our (ambitious) goal is a 50% hit rate this year.   

Our determination of hits and misses is objective.  We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:

Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 16.8 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB (Ryan Tannehill) last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.15 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB (Chuba Hubbard) last season.  

Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 9.9 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR (Van Jefferson) last season. 

Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.35 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE (Noah Fant) last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.

We hit on 5 of 9 recommended plays last week, for a 55% success rate: 

Quarterback (16.8 points minimum)

1. Jimmy Garoppolo - HIT - Jimmy G finally delivered for us.  Even though he had a couple picks, he had nearly 300 yards passing, a couple touchdowns, and 11 rushing yards.  He finished with 18.94 fantasy points. 

2. Baker Mayfield - PUSH - Mayfield was ruled out prior to the game with an ankle injury. 

Running Back (8.15)

1. Kenneth Walker III - HIT - In his debut as a starter, Walker was a Top-10 RB on the week.  He had over 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, en route to 19.0 fantasy points. 

2. Eno Benjamin - HIT - Benjamin was filling in for an ailing James Conner.  He didn’t have a remarkable stat line - 37 yards rushing on 15 attempts and 3 catches for 28 yards - but it was enough to propel him to 9.5 fantasy points. Believe it or not, that was a top-20 number this week among running backs. 

3. J.D. McKissic - MISS - Brian Robinson’s return has upset the apple cart in the running back room.  McKissic, usually a lock for PPR points, only received three targets in the passing game, and didn’t haul in any of them.  He finished with two fantasy points.  

4. Damien Williams - PUSH - Williams was not activated from IR, and was thus automatically removed from streamer consideration. 

Wide Receiver (9.9)

1. Wan’Dale Robinson - HIT - Yeahhhhhh buddy! Robinson was seeing his first action in weeks and was rumored to be on a pitch count but we recommended him anyway because, well, the rest of the Giants’ pass-catchers stink.  And he rewarded our faith.  He had only 3 catches, but one of them was in the painted area of the field, which is good for 6 points.  So he finished his day with 12.7 fantasy points, which is exactly what you want out of your streamers. 

2. Tyquan Thornton - HIT - There are some steamer recommendations that are just sooooo satisfying as an analyst.  We hit it last week with Taysom Hill, and we hit it this week with Thornton.  The Pats’ second round rookie had yet to score a touchdown this season, but he scored TWO in Week 6 - one rushing and one receiving.  He had 16 yards on the ground and 37 yards in the air to bolster those 2 scores, and he finished with 21.3 fantasy points.  Going into the Sunday night game, that was a Top 10 WR on the week. 

3. Robbie Anderson - MISS - After getting into arguments with coaches on the sideline, Anderson was sent to the locker room by head coach Steve Wilks. He did not show up in the box score. 

Tight End (9.35)

1. Evan Engram - MISS - He’s a miss, but barely, as he had 9.0 fantasy points, so if you were expecting 9.35, you’re probably happy.  I predicted he’d have 5 for 50; he actually had 5 for 40.  So it really wasn’t that bad, but we have to take the L on this call. 

2. Will Dissly - MISS - The Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the league against the tight end, but it was teammate Noah Fant, not Dissly, who did the damage in this one.  He had only 1 catch for 12 yards. The process was there with Dissly, but the results were not. 

Moving onto Week 7, below are the weekly Hail Marys.  As always, check the inactives lists on Sunday morning, as any player who is deemed “out” is automatically removed from streamer consideration. Here are our recommended streamers for this week:   

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan, Colts (30% rostered).  Ryan is a far cry from the player he was in his MVP days, but he’s still got enough juice to take advantage of a good matchup.  The Colts face off against the Titans on Sunday, who are bottom-6 against opposing passers.  With Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce both healthy, he should be able to take advantage of this matchup.

Cooper Rush, Cowboys (6%).  As of right now, Dak Prescott is slated to return, so this is a recommendation ONLY IF Prescott doesn’t play.  But Rush is slated to face off against the Lions, who are a bottom-5 defense against opposing quarterbacks.  The Lions tend to score a lot of points, sure, but they give up roughly as many.  It should be a big day on offense for Dallas.  

Davis Mills, Texans (5%).  Swallow hard, and take the plunge.  Mills has not reached our minimum points threshold in any game this season, so starting him here takes a real leap of faith.  But he’s facing off against the Raiders.  No defense gives up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than Vegas.  If Mills is ever going to put up a useful stat line, it’s going to be in Week 7.  

Running Backs

Rachaad White, Buccaneers (33%). He barely qualifies, but he qualifies.  And the Bucs keep trying to get him more and more involved because they know they can’t run Leonard Fournette into the ground. They face off against the Panthers in Week 7, who are bottom-10 against the run.  

J.D. McKissic, Commanders (25%).  At this point, you don’t need an introduction.  He generally boasts a safe PPR floor, and I’m going to assume that Brian Robinson’s emergence hasn’t changed that.  If we see one more stinker week out of him we may need to reassess. 

Damien Williams, Falcons (3%).  ONLY IF HE PLAYS.  Williams is presently on IR with a rib injury, but he could be back any day now.  The Falcons play the Bengals in Week 7, and the Bengals have been absolutely gashed by opposing runners since losing stud DT DJ Reader to injury.  Williams is a very sneaky high-upside play if he returns this week, as he’s likely to get the lion’s share of the work against the sieve-like Bengals run defense. 

D’Onta Foreman, Panthers (35%) (late addition 10/21/2022): With Christian McCaffrey traded to the Panthers, Foreman is the next man up. They face off against the Bucs’ league-best run D this week, but you’re still going to want to scoop him up so you’ll have him for future weeks. And despite the Bucs being good, he should still get the volume to have a chance at finishing with enough points to make him a viable streamer.

Wide Receivers

As noted last week, we’ve reached the point in the season where wide receiver is pretty thin. Our primary recommendations this week are repeats from last week, with a high-risk dart throw at the end.  

Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (9%). He was on a snap count, but immediately showed he’s the most dangerous weapon they have in the pass game.  It doesn’t matter if his playing time is still limited in Week 7 as long as he continues to be involved in the red zone packages.   

Tyquan Thornton, Patriots (2%).  Thornton isn’t likely to repeat his 2-TD outing from Week 6, but his matchup against the Bears on Monday Night Football this week isn’t all that intimidating.  Chicago is middle-of-the-pack as a pass D, and Bailey Zappe isn’t afraid to throw (all time leader in single season passing touchdowns in college).  

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns (15%).  I know, I know.  I said I wouldn’t do this again.  I know.  I remember how he burned us in Week 2.  I remember how I had this feeling in my gut that I shouldn’t recommend players whom I believe lack talent. But this week, the Browns are facing the Ravens.  The Ravens! Everyone moves the ball on the Ravens’ secondary (except the Bengals, apparently - ugh.).  The Ravens are the 2nd-most friendly defense to opposing wideouts.  I’ve just got a hunch that DPJ gets deep for one here.  I think that he is severely, severely overrated as a talent, but I’m playing the matchup here if I’m desperate.  

Tight Ends

Chig Okonkwo, Titans (0%).  The Titans play the Colts in Week 7, who are bottom-5 against the tight end.  Plus, the last time these teams faced off, Okonkwo found the end zone.  He seems to be more involved in the passing game than fellow tight end Austin Hooper.  

Mo Alie-Cox, Colts (6%). To be clear, tight end is ugly this week and I don’t trust either of these streamers. But if you have nowhere else to turn, the logic supports streaming MAC. The Colts’ Week 7 opponent, the Titans, are bottom-5 against the tight end. When the Colts faced off against the Titans a couple weeks ago, Alie-Cox had 26.5 fantasy points, based on a 6-catch, 85 yard outing and a couple scores. I don’t think he’s doing that again this week, but I do think he could see that type of volume (6 targets) and maybe luck into the end zone. But again, I don’t love either of these tight end streamers. The last Titans game was the only game this season where Alie-Cox has drawn more than 3 targets. He could easily goose egg you here.