Weekly Hail Mary: Week 1
It’s back! Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer. A prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it; we’re only choosing from the dregs. We proudly present these Hail Marys for Week 1:
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (11% owned). It’s never exciting to own Jimmy G, but Detroit is terrible against the pass, so this is a tasty matchup to open the season. I’m a bit lukewarm on this endorsement because the Lions are just about as bad against the run as they are against the pass, so this could be a big Raheem Mostert/Trey Sermon game script. But Garoppolo also has a good shot to capitalize on this good matchup as well since Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel are all healthy. (Note: If Trey Lance is named the starter ahead of kickoff, obviously start him instead. He brings a rushing element that Jimmy G lacks.)
Tyrod Taylor, Texans (3%). Wait, wait. Hear me out. Yes, I know the Texans are terrible. Yes, I know Tuh-rod ain’t all that and a bag of potato chips. Yes, I know they have no receiving options outside of Brandin Cooks. But (a) they’re facing the Jags (b) at home and (c) Taylor is at least going to give you a safe floor with his legs. In seasons where he has started at least 14 games, Taylor averages 35 rushing yards per game and a rushing score once every three games. If your league is like most, rushing yards are worth more than passing yards and rushing TDs are worth more than passing TDs. Against a perennially-bad Jacksonville defense, I’d be willing to roll the dice with Taylor and see if his Konami Code rushing ability can elevate him to a top-12 play this week.
Zach Wilson, Jets (18%). This is your high-risk, high-reward play. If Wilson lights it up on the road against the Panthers in his rookie debut, you ain’t getting him next week. There’s a reason this dude was the #2 pick in the draft: he can really sling it. He brings underrated rushing ability as well. I’d feel better about this call if he were at home, but hey, you take ‘em as you find ‘em. The Jets defense projects to be downright dreadful again this year, so Wilson is probably going to have to throw a ton to keep them in games. Count me among those who kinda dig his primary weapons in Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Jamison Crowder.
Running Backs
James White, Patriots (30%). This is always the most difficult position group to write, because most everyone who has a pulse is rostered. I try to focus on guys who have a path to volume, are in a goal line role, or should at least get third down touches. White is in this latter category. Before Cammy Newton showed up in Foxboro and developed an allergy to throwing the ball, White had a stretch of four seasons where he averaged nearly 69 catches, 600 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per year. In other words, he’s a low-end WR3 or flex play. You can certainly do worse if you’re in dire straights at running back, such as you folks that drafted early in the summer and got stuck with Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins.
Ty’Son Williams, Ravens (28%). Speaking of the J.K. Dobbins injury… Dobbins’ season-ending ACL tear changed the presumed 60/40 split between him and Gus Edwards to a 60/40 split between Edwards and Williams. Williams will be on the lesser end of that, sure, but 40% of the touches is still a ton in the Ravens run-heavy offense. The news earlier this week that Justice Hill tragically suffered a torn Achilles’ tendon in practice only solidifies Williams’ role in the offense. He may very well be the pass catching option in Baltimore’s backfield.
Tony Jones, Jr., Saints (7%). With the release of Latavius Murray, Jones has the goal line and early-down RB role for the Saints’ offense. The former Golden Domer should at minimum be a viable fantasy asset for the first third of the season, as the Saints look to be more run-centric for as long as Michael Thomas is out. Alvin Kamara is going to be involved primarily in the passing game, which will leave the lion’s share of the carries for Jones.
Wayne Gallman, Falcons (4%). This is more a bet against Mike Davis than anything else. Last year, in fewer touches, Gallman had more yards than, and just as many touchdowns as, Mike Davis. This may end up being a 50-50 split, although Davis likely has the early leg up just because he’s been with the team since the start of free agency whereas Gallman was just signed last week after he was cut by the 49ers. Still, an opening week matchup against the Eagles isn’t all that intimidating.
Wide Receivers
Tyrell Williams, Lions (31%). Easy call. Yes, the Lions passing game is expected to be dreadful. Yes, Jared Goff is a bottom-5 starting NFL quarterback. And yes, it’s been a long time since Williams has been relevant. But volume is the name of the game here, kids, and Williams is the best bet to lead the Lions’ WRs in receptions this year. Stoppit with this Amon-Ra St. Brown nonsense; he’s only playing in 3-wide sets. You know who is out there in base formations? Tyrell Williams and Kalif Raymond. The 5’8 Khalif Raymond who has bounced around the Broncos, Giants, Jets, and Titans in his four years in the league, and has never even had 200 yards receiving in a season. I think the ball is going Williams’ way a LOT. Even a low-volume passing attack is going to throw the ball 400 times. A 25% target share for Williams would be 100 targets. Buy now, before it’s too late. Hockenson and Swift may move the chains, but Tyrell the Gazelle is the only deep threat they’ve got. They’re likely to be playing catchup against the Niners in Week 1, so he should get ample opportunities.
Sammy Watkins, Ravens (9%). Ick. Recommending a Ravens wide receiver? I need a shower. But recommending SAMMY WATKINS? I may have reached a new low. We know Watkins is a fantasy whack-a-mole, but he may be the only mole the Ravens have. Or something like that. With Rashod Bateman and Miles Boykin both out for the first month, and Hollywood Brown seemingly always nursing some lower leg injury or another, Watkins may be the only wide receiver left standing for Baltimore’s Monday night showdown with the Raiders. The passing game is going to have to go through Watkins and Mark Andrews. And the Raiders’ secondary ain’t all that and a bag of chips. Ya know?
DeSean Jackson, Rams (3%). Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: DeSean Jackson lights it up in prime time. Fully healthy for the first time in ages, is it really a stretch to think that D-Jax can torch Chicago’s secondary with Matt Stafford’s rocket arm chucking him the pigskin? Look, we all know Jackson isn’t going to get through the entire season healthy, so you’ve got to ride him when you can. He’s a sneaky pickup for Week 1 and a great DFS play. He’ll give you a reason to watch the Sunday Night tilt between the Rams and Bears.
Rondale Moore, Cardinals (21%). This is your best chance to get exposure to the Cardinals’ prolific offense at low cost. The diminutive Moore (5’7”) seems tailor-made for Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal Air Raid offense. You remember all those targets Larry Fitzgerald couldn’t do anything with last year, other than fall forward? Those belong to Moore now. He’s got the speed to make defenders pay, but the size to be too small to tackle. You can’t hit what you can’t see; float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. Moore should have ample opportunity to sting opponents this year, starting with the Titans in Week 1.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet, Bears (34%). This one is right on the cusp, as Kmet is available in 34% of Yahoo! leagues. The dude was a second round pick last year, was an absolute BEAST at Notre Dame in 2019, and should be the #2 target in the passing game for the Bears this year. I like him better once Justin Fields takes over under center (What’s the old adage? A tight end is a rookie quarterback’s best friend?), but I think he’ll be just fine with Andy Dalton. He ended last year as a more significant piece of the offense, with at least 6 targets in 4 of his final 6 games. That bodes well for his momentum heading into this season. Plus, if you start him this week, you’ll get to see him on Sunday Night in prime time against the Rams. And you know how it is with those “island” games - if the dude goes off, EVERYONE in your league will be clamoring for him on the waiver wire, because they all saw the game. Get him before the feeding frenzy begins. With Allen Robinson likely locked down by Jalen Ramsey, the Bears are going to need to find a different way to move the ball through the air. Enter Kmet.
Juwan Johnson, Saints (10%). The early preseason buzz was on Adam Trautman, but then he got hurt. Johnson appears to be the next man up at tight end for the Saints. This is a team that is desperate for pass catchers in the wake of the Michael Thomas injury, so Johnson could be worth a dart throw. Be forewarned, though: Jameis Winston has never been known for targeting the tight end.
C.J. Uzomah, Bengals (0%). Ok, so maybe I’m a sucker. But you know what I want? I want a tight end who is connected to competent QB play. And Joe Burrow is far better than competent. With all the weapons the Bengals have in the passing game - Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Joe Mixon - Uzomah could be an afterthought in the passing game. An afterthought for the Vikings defense, that is. I’m calling my shot here: Uzomah caught the first touchdown pass of Joe Burrow’s career, and he’s going to catch one of his first touchdown passes of his comeback. Mark Uzomah down for a tuddy this week against the Purple People Eaters.