Weekly Hail Mary: Week 2
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it; we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks: Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season (because 12th-best is the cutoff for what constitutes being starter-worthy).
Running Backs: Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start 2 running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers: Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends: Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season.
We hit on 7 of 13 recommended plays last week, for a 54% success rate:
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor, Texans - HIT - Taylor finished with 23.64 fantasy points and was among the top 12 quarterbacks. He was easily our best QB call of the week, with 284 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and 40 yards rushing. Two lessons here: always consider mobile quarterbacks when streaming, and always start your passers against Jacksonville.
Zach Wilson, Jets - HIT - Wilson had 19.32 points in his rookie debut, which was just good enough to be considered a hit. His 258 yards passing and two touchdowns were fairly promising, considering this was his first regular season action in the NFL.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers - MISS - The process was good, but the results were a tad disappointing. The 49ers were just so darn effective running the ball that they really didn’t need a ton of offense from Jimmy G. He did put up over 300 yards passing and a touchdown, and he didn’t kill you (like Aaron Rodgers did this week, for example) but he just wasn’t quite up to par with all of the usable fantasy performances among QBs in Week 1. Bear in mind that his stat line would have looked a lot different - and he would have qualified as a “HIT” - if he didn’t get vultured by rookie Trey Lance for the first score of the game.
Running Back
Ty’Son Williams, Ravens - HIT - Dude put up 18.4 fantasy points and was a top 10 RB this week. His ownership percentage skyrocketed following Monday Night’s game. You missed out if you didn’t take our advice to pick him up prior to Week 1. He had over 100 yards from scrimmage, three catches, and a rushing touchdown, all of which bode well for his future in this offense.
James White, Patriots - HIT - White finished with 12.10 fantasy points and was RB23 heading into the Monday Night Football game. That’s low-end RB2 numbers for the week. You have to be ecstatic with that. He only had 4 carries for 12 yards, but like usual, his production was buoyed by 6 receptions for 49 yards. He is PPR gold. And with Damien Harris’ two fumbles on Sunday, who knows if White could be in line for even more work.
Tony Jones, Jr., Saints - MISS - This is a miss, but big things are coming. Jones had 12 touches on Sunday, including 50 yards rushing. All he needs is a short TD to make or break his week. He posted 6.3 points just on his rushing. If he gets into the end zone, he’s easily a top 24 running back. You’ll see him in this column again.
Wayne Gallman - PUSH - Inactive. Always check the inactives before game time, kids. Players who are declared inactive are automatically withdrawn from consideration.
Wide Receiver
Sammy Watkins, Ravens - HIT - He posted 13.6 points, hauling in 4 of 8 passes for 96 yards. This one was all about the process. Given the Ravens’ recent injuries, Watkins was one of the only pass catchers left standing. It should come as no surprise that he was the team’s most heavily-targeted receiver in Week 1, and that usage is likely to continue for the remainder of the month. Even after his useful MNF performance, he is rostered in few enough leagues that you should still be able to get him on waivers this week if you want him.
Rondale Moore, Cardinals - MISS - This one was close, but Moore just missed the cut with 10.80 fantasy points (the cutoff is 11.4). Still, if you started him as you’re flex, you’re probably not too terribly disappointed with his four catches for 68 yards. It was encouraging to see him so involved in his rookie debut, especially with AJ Green doing so little with the six targets he received. Expect Moore to grow even more involved in the offense moving forward.
Tyrell Williams, Lions - MISS - On Sunday it was clear what many had suspected all along: this passing offense will run through TJ Hockenson, D’Andre Swift, and Jamaal Williams. The wide receivers on this team are an afterthought.
DeSean Jackson, Rams - MISS - He caught every ball thrown his way, but was only targeted twice. And he didn’t have any scores. He’s just not a focal point for this offense.
Tight End
Juwan Johnson, Saints - HIT - He was only targeted 3 times, but he caught all 3 of them and turned two into touchdowns. You’ve got to be thrilled with his 17.10 fantasy points.
Cole Kmet, Bears - HIT - Tight end is always a wasteland, so it doesn’t take much to be considered a hit. Last year, any player averaging more than 9 points a week was a top 12 play. Kmet had 9.2 points on Sunday, catching 5 of 7 targets for 42 yards.
CJ Uzomah, Bengals - MISS - Uzomah is never going to be a focal point of the Bengals offense, but every so often he’s going to catch a touchdown from Burrow to stay fantasy relevant. This wasn’t one of those weeks. He had a really nice third down grab on a key drive, but that’s about it.
Now it’s time to move on to Week 2. here are our recommended Hail Marys for this week:
Quarterbacks
Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos (11% owned). Although he just lost Jerry Jeudy, Bridgewater should be a useful play on the road against a woeful Jacksonville defense this week. Did you see what Tyrod Taylor just did to the Jags? Bridgewater is (arguably) a better passer than Taylor, and has better weapons in Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, and Tim Patrick. It’s not unreasonable to expect 265 yards and a couple touchdowns, which is just fine for a streaming week.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (9% owned). Going back to the well with this one. Garoppolo (kinda) disappointed us in Week 1, but I think that had as much to do with Brandon Aiyuk’s reduced usage as anything. Assuming Aiyuk is out of Shanny’s doghouse, Garoppolo should feast against a beatable Philly secondary. I know the Niners love to run, but the way you beat the Eagles is through the air. Their defensive front is still pretty stout. Hopefully Aiyuk and George Kittle can get going against the Iggles, propelling Garoppolo to a monster fantasy day.
Tyrod Taylor, Texans (4%). Going back to the well, Part 2. I don’t love the matchup on the road against the Browns this week, but I also don’t think it’s a great week for streaming quarterbacks. Taylor is mobile, and mobile quarterbacks typically provide a safe floor. I don’t see a ton of upside with Taylor this week, but I do think the floor is relatively safe if you’re desperate. I do like Bridgewater and Garoppolo more this week, though.
Running Backs
James White, Patriots (33%). Going back to the well, Part 3. White is 33% owned, so this is probably the last week you can get him. He’s playing the hapless New York Jets, and the Pats should have no trouble moving the ball against their porous defense. Christian McCaffrey just steamrolled them for 9 catches and 89 yards. Now, White isn’t McCaffrey, but there’s no reason to think he can’t cobble together a “poor man’s” version of CMC’s production through the air.
Tony Jones, Jr., Saints (23%). He’s getting the work, with 12 touches this past Sunday. The touchdowns will inevitably follow. Jameis ain’t tossing four TDs every week, ya know? And the matchup against Carolina this week is fairly inviting.
Elijah Mitchell, 49ers (8%). Everyone saw his 100-yard explosion in his rookie debut on Sunday. But bear in mind that (a) he was projected to be behind Raheem Mostert, but Mostert got hurt early, (b) Trey Sermon was inactive (likely because he profiles similarly to Mostert), and (c) Kyle Shanahan never commits to one runner for long, always opting to ride the “hot hand.” Mitchell is a worthwhile pickup, but the feeding frenzy during the free agent bidding process this week is likely to make him cost more than he is going to be worth over the long term. But given what he’s seen, and the fact that he’s a rookie, means we need to take him seriously, and consider him as the potential lead ball-carrier for San Francisco in Week 2 against Philadelphia. Like I said in the section on Garoppolo, though, I think the Niners are more likely to try to attack Philly through the air this week.
Wide Receivers
Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler, Broncos (2% each). If I believe in Bridgewater this week - and I do - then I’ve got to believe in his pass catchers. Patrick will slide into Jerry Jeudy’s role on the outside, with Hamler continuing to man the slot. Patrick is probably the better bet for a short touchdown, whereas Hamler is probably the better bet for volume, with the added bonus of the potential for a long score due to his speed. “Fire up your wide receivers against the Jaguars” might be the HMF mantra this season.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers (12%). I don’t like MVS. He’s always been too “boom or bust” for my tastes. But following a week in which the Packers got absolutely embarrassed by the Saints, I’m thinking Aaron Rodgers is going to want to go “boom” against the Lions on Monday Night Football. These Lions, by the way, just lost last year’s #5 overall draft pick, CB Jeffrey Okudah, to a torn Achilles. And their secondary wasn’t any good before that loss anyway. It would not be surprising at all to see MVS get deep in prime time.
Hunter Renfrow, Raiders (2%). Mentioning him only because I think he’s overlooked. He saw nine targets against a (supposedly) good Ravens defense in Week 1. He is running as the primary slot receiver in the Raiders offense, which proved this week that they can put up points. Las Vegas is likely going to have to throw a lot this week if they want to keep pace with Pittsburgh.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet, Bears (34%). Like White, this is probably your last chance to get him. He plays at home against the Bengals this week, and Cincinnati has been bad against the tight end for a long time. Plus, with the Bears down to their fourth string left tackle, I can envision a lot of quick dump-offs to Kmet in this one.
Adam Trautman, Saints (11%). Yeah, I know you just saw Juwan Johnson score two touchdowns for the Saints. But Trautman was actually more involved than Johnson, and by a wide margin. Did you know he was the most-targeted pass catcher for the Saints this past week? He had a THIRTY PERCENT target share! That’s going to lead to production moving forward, assuming similar usage. He has the Panthers on tap this week, and he should be a safer bet for points than teammate Johnson.
Tyler Conklin, Vikings (5%). Perhaps more of a low-key play, but he’s up against the Cardinals this week, which is not a terribly intimidating defensive matchup. He can probably match or exceed his production from Week 1 (4 for 41), and maybe even sneak into the end zone if all breaks right.