Bold Predictions for the 2021 Fantasy Season!
Fantasy football, like many industries, is plagued by “conventional wisdom” - which is often wrong. Going against conventional wisdom, at the right time, is how you win championships. Below are twelve “bold predictions” which, if they pan out, could steer your fantasy team toward a title this season. And if they don’t work out - well, hey, there’s a reason these predictions were bold!
Najee Harris will have more fantasy points than Saquon Barkley.
Why it could happen: Barkley is recovering from a severe knee injury. He had damage to more than just his ACL. I am of the belief that he won’t be back to his “old self” until midseason - if ever. Harris, on the other hand, has young, fresh legs, and is primed for a three-down workload for a team historically known for running the ball. If he can stay healthy, Harris is a lock for 325+ carries, plus a healthy workload in the receiving game (I’m thinking 70 targets). I’ll take the healthy player with an assumed heavy workload over an unhealthy player with an assumed heavy workload.The most fantasy-relevant pass-catcher in New York will be Elijah Moore.
Why it could happen: First, let’s start with the “other” New York team, the Giants. Free agent Kenny Golladay is hurt (again), Evan Engram is a bust, and Sterling Shepard can never stay healthy. And for the Jets, Jamison Crowder is being phased out of the offense, Keelan Cole isn’t anything special, and free agent signee Corey Davis has never lived up to his draft pedigree. Elijah Moore was Gang Green’s second round pick this year and has been the talk of Jets camp. Some beat writers have gone so far as to call him the best player - not the best rookie, the best player - on the team. Moore was tremendously productive in college, and his immense talent is already translating to the NFL. Based on recent reports, he seems to have a chip on his shoulder, and also has the desire to be great. He’s a great bet in the later rounds of your draft.Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb will both finish as Top-12 wide receivers.
Why it could happen: It’s not really all that uncommon for a pair of teammates to finish as top 12 wide receivers. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are all recent examples. So why not Cooper and Lamb? They’re both being drafted close to the top 12 range anyway, and everyone is going ga-ga over Dak Prescott’s 4-game sample from last season. No, Dak isn’t going to have that sort of pace throughout an entire season, but he’s still a very good quarterback playing behind an elite offensive line, and there’s no reason he can’t have a monster passing season. If Dak orchestrates a high-flying attack, like we all expect, Cooper and Lamb should be the primary beneficiaries.Kenyan Drake will have more fantasy points than teammate Josh Jacobs.
Why it could happen: Follow the money. Drake signed a two-year deal with the Raiders in March, for $14.5 million with $11 million guaranteed. That’s more than they have invested in Josh Jacobs (even though he is a former first round pick), as his contract only calls for $1.6 million in cash this year and $2.1 million next year. It is rare for NFL teams to spend big on running backs in free agency these days, so we need to pay attention when they do; it sends a signal as to their plans. Drake, at minimum, should be the team’s passing down back, but has the potential for a much larger role. He got much more than “passing down back” money.Deshaun Watson will play at least 12 games.
Why it could happen: Watson has not been criminally indicted. All of his legal issues are civil suits, and the most recent news is that one of his accusers was texting him the day after the alleged assault asking when they could meet up again for another massage. It certainly casts doubt on the veracity of her allegations. Further, Watson has not yet been placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. That suggests that he may escape this fiasco without missing any games at all. I’m hedging by predicting he’ll play in at least 12 games, although it may well be more than that - although it probably won’t be in Houston. They seem intent on trading him, and Philadelphia seems the likeliest landing spot. Downgrade Jalen Hurts accordingly.D’Andre Swift will finish among the top three running backs in receptions.
Why it could happen: Swift’s pass-catching is his calling card. I don’t buy into all this “Jamaal Williams is taking away the passing game work” nonsense. Anthony Lynn says that Williams is his “A” back, which in the Lynn offense is the 2-down banger (think Joshua Kelley). Swift is going to get as much work as he can handle. I do have some mild concerns that Jared Goff has an extremely poor track record targeting the running back, but I think he’s smart enough to realize pretty quickly that Swift is the best pass-catcher at his disposal.Calvin Ridley will finish the year as the WR1.
Here’s why it could happen: Ridley was at his best last year when Julio Jones missed time. Overall, he managed a season with 90 receptions, 9 touchdowns, and nearly 1,400 yards. With Julio now in Tennessee, I see no reason why Ridley can’t improve on last season’s stats now that he’s the clear-cut alpha dog for the entire season.Myles Gaskin will finish outside the top-36 running backs.
Here’s why it could happen: Gaskin just isn’t a special talent. And the team seems insistent on using a plethora of backs, including Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed, and potentially 7th round pick Gerrid Doaks. I just don’t understand why people are getting so excited for Gaskin, considering he didn’t have a single 100-yard rushing game last year and only 5 total touchdowns. You know who else had 5 total touchdowns last year? Malcolm Brown.Julio Jones will finish outside the top 24 receivers.
Why it could happen: Rumors are already cropping up about Jones suffering through lower leg injuries in training camp. This is the sort of thing that could linger well into the season and cause him to miss games. If you’re wagering your season on an aging receiver with a history of (and present) lower leg injuries, it’s probably going to blow up in your face more often than not.Jerry Jeudy will finish as a top 15 wide receiver…and so will Brandin Cooks.
Why it could happen: Jeudy is a former first round pick whose calling card is his route running. That’s a skill that almost always leads to production in the NFL. Jeudy had a very promising rookie year, and should be able to build on that with Courtland Sutton returning to take some of the defensive attention off of him. There were rumors earlier in the season that Aaron Rodgers was destined for Denver, which obviously didn’t happen. But if Aaron Rodgers were Denver’s QB, is there any doubt Jeudy would be seen as a top 15 wideout? So why can’t he finish that highly with Teddy Bridgewater under center? No, Bridgewater isn’t Aaron Rodgers, but he’s got a demonstrated track record of being able to support fantasy-relevant wide receivers. Both Robby Anderson and DJ Moore were 1,000 yard receivers last year, and Jeudy is a better talent than both of those guys.
For Brandin Cooks to make it into the top 15, it’s all about volume. We’ve seen him as a top 15 receiver in the past, and not that long ago. In seven seasons in the league, he has five 1,000-yard campaigns. Regardless of who is under center for the Texans, this should likely be the sixth, as he is the only real pass-catching threat in Houston.Derrick Henry will not finish as an RB1 this year.
Why it could happen: Henry’s workload has been insane over the past two seasons (386 carries in 2019 and 396 carries last year). Having 400+ touches in back-to-back seasons makes him a prime injury risk, and adding in a 17th game doesn’t help matters. He’s a guy that has to get a heavy volume in the run game to remain fantasy-relevant, as he contributes next to nothing through the air. Any slight bit of regression in his rushing stats could easily knock him out of the RB1 conversation.Tua Tagovailoa will end the year as a QB1.
Why it could happen: It wasn’t all that long ago - the start of the 2019 college football season, in fact - when Tagovailoa was seen as the crown jewel of his draft class. Remember the “TankforTua” hashtag that was dominating social media? He was seen as THE GUY. The public’s perception of him diminished considerably following his hip injury during the 2019 college football season, and he was still working his way back from that injury last year. But coming into 2021 he should be 100% healthy, and the Dolphins have tailored the offense to his strengths and surrounded him with weapons who can get deep in Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa could very well be this year’s version of 2020 Josh Allen or 2019 Lamar Jackson - the guy who is not being drafted as a starter but who winds up being the top quarterback in fantasy. Take him with the last pick of your draft and see if the lottery ticket hits.