Weekly Hail Mary: Week 4
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
It was a rought week. We hit on only 4 of 13 recommended plays last week, for a 31% success rate. There were three calls that were thisclose, and would have taken our success rate to 54%, but hey, we’ve got to stick to the rubric, so we’re not going to give ourselves credit for Jalen Reagor, Jimmy G, or Daniel Jones. But if you started those guys, you’re probably not too upset right now. And our official “hits” this week hit really, really big. Let’s take a look:
Quarterback (18.5 points minimum)
Jimmy Garoppolo - MISS - It’s a miss, but barely. Jimmy G gave you a usable 257 yards and two passing touchdowns. He certainly kept you competitive. But seriously, never watch Garoppolo play. It’s always ugly. The stat line is there at the end, but… it’s just hard to watch. Should be Trey Lance SZN soon.
Daniel Jones - MISS - Like Jimmy G, it’s a miss, but just barely. Jones gave you 16.54 points on a day where two of his top three pass catchers, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, both got hurt. It’s disappointing that he couldn’t score against the lowly Falcons, but like usual, he gave you decent production with his legs.
Justin Fields - MISS - Barf. Hardly any passing attempts or rushing yards. He got you four points. Just a really weird performance for a guy who was perceived to have a safe floor.
Running Back (8.1 points minimum)
Alex Mattison - HIT - This was a big, BIG hit. Mattison was a top 10 RB in Week 3, posting 23 fantasy points thanks to 112 yards rushing and 6 catches for 59 yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson - HIT - 16.2 fantasy points for Patterson, who continues to cobble together useful fantasy days. He was a low end RB2 this week.
J.D. McKissic - MISS - This game never really got going for Washington, and McKissic was targeted only twice in the passing game. That’s unusual for him, and resulted in an out-of-the ordinary fantasy day with fewer than 6 points.
Wide Receiver (11.4 points minimum)
Emmanuel Sanders - HIT - This might go down as one of our best calls ever. Sanders, who was seeing a hefty target volume heading into the week, finally busted out with 5 catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns. He was a top 5 wide receiver this week, with 26.40 fantasy points. Hope you scooped him up while you could. He’ll be on everyone’s radar this week.
Jalen Reagor - MISS - But just barely. Reagor had 10.30 points on Monday night against the Cowboys, which certainly didn’t kill you if you were hoping for the threshold of 11.4. His production likely was not the reason anyone lost their fantasy matchup.
Rondale Moore - MISS - Right process, wrong receiver. AJ Green was the Cardinals wideout who took advantage of the soft Jaguars’ secondary.
Tight End (9.0 points minimum)
Zach Ertz - HIT - The touchdown saved you, but hey, that’s typically what you’re looking for with a waiver wire tight end.
Adam Trautman - MISS - Trautman goose-egged again. Welcome to Dumpsville, Adam Trautman.
Eric Ebron - MISS - Good process, wrong player. My logic was that tight ends always destroy the Bengals. And that happened this week. But it was Pat Freiermuth, not Ebron.
Maxx Williams - MISS - Williams caught all three of his targets, but for only 19 yards.
So now we’ve got to pick ourselves up, dust off, and do better. Moving onto Week 4, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold, Panthers (22% owned). Through three weeks, Sam Darnold is completing 68% of his passes, has thrown for 300 yards twice, has three passing touchdowns, and has three rushing scores. He has certainly entered into “reliable streamer” territory, and now he gets a tissue-paper-soft Dallas defense that he’s had 10 days to prepare for.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (11%). Through the first quarter of the season, he’s the Hail Mary Football poster boy. He is the only player we have recommended every week this season, because for some reason he is still only rostered in 11% of leagues. Ok, well, we know the reason. He’s just not all that good. It’s always ugly. And people are afraid of Trey Lance taking over. But that hasn’t happened yet. Look, I get it that the Shanahan offense is known for potent rushing attacks. But ALL of their runners are banged up right now. They’re gonna need to throw to win. Garoppolo has a date against a very beatable Seattle secondary at home this week. It’s never pretty with Jimmy G - his play, not his face - so I wouldn’t recommend watching the game unless you want to go on tilt, but by the time it’s all said and done he should give you the fantasy points you need.
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Footballers (6%). You need to have a strong constitution to start a former UDFA journeyman quarterback who was a backup to start the season. But Heinicke acquitted himself well in Week 2 against the Giants, and rallied for 3 scores (2 passing, 1 rushing) against the Bills in Week 3, so we know he’s got it in him to put up decent fantasy totals. Washington is on the road against Atlanta in Week 4. That means two things for Heinicke: (1) He’ll get to go up against a Falcon secondary that has been atrocious for the better part of the past half-decade, and is the most favorable matchup for opposing fantasy QBs so far; and (2) he’ll be playing in a dome, which gives ideal conditions for passing. Fire him up.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (26%). Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it isn’t true. With Christian McCaffrey set to miss a few weeks, Hubbard will slot in as the lead ball-carrier for Carolina. He is a must-add in all formats. Their Week 4 game against Dallas is a good opportunity to get his feet wet. The Panthers are likely to rely on Royce Freeman in this game more than you’d expect, though, and that will cut into Hubbard’s workload. In Week 3, Hubbard had 11 carries and Freeman had 5, so we’re looking at a likely 2:1 split.
Ty Johnson, Jets (10%). Tevin Coleman is getting phased out of the offense and was inactive in Week 3. Ty Johnson and Michael Carter are seeing their roles grow at Coleman’s expense. Johnson is not a high ceiling play, but he should have a reasonably safe floor against the Titans this week.
J.J. Taylor, Patriots (1%). This one is a hunch. But with James White out for the foreseeable future with a hip injury, there is a void in Foxboro for the “pass catching back.” That fits Taylor’ skill set incredibly well. Plus, wouldn’t it be the most Belichick-ian thing ever to heavily feature a no-name in prime time against the reigning champs on Sunday Night? The Buccaneers’ run defense is outstanding and the pass defense is horrendous. To stay in it, the Pats are going to need to throw, which implies that whomever is the passing down back should feast. Beware of Brandon Bolden, though.
Wide Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders (26%). He’s the #2 target in a high powered offense orchestrated by an elite quarterback. You just saw him explode in Week 3. And now he gets to face off against the Replacements - er, I mean the Texans - in Week 4. He’s in a spot to smash… again.
Elijah Moore, Jets (28%). This is your chance to buy. Moore was more heavily rostered than this to start the season, but many managers are impatient with rookies and he has been dropped in several leagues. But historically, rookies improve as the season wears on, and this is a good time to grab Moore. He gets a home game against Tennessee’s shaky secondary this week.
Van Jefferson, Rams (6%). He played 80% of the snaps the first two weeks of the season but the production just hasn’t fallen into place yet. A game against Arizona is likely just what he needs to get right.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth (8%). Green Bay is bottom-3 in the league against the tight end, and the Steelers’ primary pass-catching options at wide receiver - Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool - are all banged up. Plus, Big Ben is having elbow problems, and it just doesn’t look like he can chuck it deep anymore. Throws to the tight end close to the line of scrimmage should be a staple of the playbook from here on out.
And although he doesn’t *technically* qualify for the list, the Chargers’ Jared Cook is available in half of all leagues and plays the Raiders on Monday Night Football this week. With all the targets he’s been getting, he’s due for a touchdown.