Weekly Hail Mary: Week 5
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 5 of 9 recommended plays last week, for a 56% success rate. Not bad! Here are last week’s recommendations:
Quarterback (Min. 18.5 points)
Sam Darnold - HIT - A big hit. Darnold continues to smash. On Sunday against the Cowboys, he had 2 passing touchdowns along with 2 more rushing touchdowns, giving him the NFL lead in the latter category. He finished Week 4 with 33.54 fantasy points. He’s getting close to “must start” territory.
Taylor Heinicke - HIT - Terry McLaurin continues to make Heinicke look like a Pro Bowler, acrobatically grabbing all sorts of off-target throws. As a result, the stat lines continue to be there. Heinicke had 290 yards passing, 43 yards rushing, and 3 passing scores en route to 27.9 fantasy points this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo - MISS - Garoppolo got hurt and missed the entire second half, ceding the way to rookie Trey Lance, who threw a couple scores. Combined, the 49ers QBs had over 300 yards passing and 3 TDs, so the process was good here, but unless you get points for Team QB, you were disappointed with Jimmy G’s 9.60 fantasy points. He’s let us down here at HMF too many times this year. Much like Pedro Cerrano in Major League, it’s time to say, “*Bleep* you, Jobu. I do this myself.”
Running Back (Min 8.1 points)
Chuba Hubbard - HIT - It wasn’t a huge game by any stretch, and maybe even was a little bit of a disappointment given the opponent, but Hubbard had 9.1 fantasy points, which is good enough to qualify as a low end RB2 over the course of an entire season.
Ty Johnson - MISS - Johnson just wasn’t all that involved this week, and had only 3.30 fantasy points on five touches in the Jets’ upset win over the Titans.
JJ Taylor - MISS - Taylor was expected to inherit the James White/passing game role, but it just didn’t happen. The only Patriot running back who was used much in the receiving game was veteran Brandon Bolden.
Wide Receiver (Min. 11.4 points)
Emmanuel Sanders - HIT - Sanders had 13.10 points in a blowout against the Texans. He didn’t find the end zone, but saw enough consistent work to provide a useful stat line for the week.
Van Jefferson - HIT - 6 receptions, 90 yards, TD. With his usage, you knew a game like this was coming. He finished Week 4 with 21.0 fantasy points.
Elijah Moore - PUSH - Moore was declared OUT prior to the game, and is thus removed from consideration.
Tight End (Min 9.0 points)
Pat Freiermuth - MISS - our dreadful string of tight end calls continues. Freiermuth was only targeted once, catching the pass for 11 yards.
Moving onto Week 5, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Trey Lance, 49ers (31% owned). It’s like in Major League 2 when Pedro Cerrano went from Jobu to Buddha. Lance is Buddha… or something like that. Either way, we’re sticking with the 49ers and turning the page to Lance in his starting debut. He offers a safe rushing floor in what should be a high scoring affair against the division-rival Cardinals. In relief of Jimmy G in Week 4, he tossed 2 touchdown passes and over 150 yards, and added 40 yards rushing, for a total 20.38 fantasy points. That would have made him a “hit” if he had been a recommended streamer. And that was in just about two quarters! Imagine what he can do in an entire game.
Jared Goff, Lions (13%). Detroit plays Minnesota in Week 5, and Minnesota is the 7th-friendliest team against opposing fantasy quarterbacks. Plus, Goff hasn’t been as terrible as you’d think. Other than the Week 3 tilt against Baltimore, he’s been a viable fantasy streamer (more than 18.5 points) every week this season. He has capitalized on soft matchups against Green Bay and San Francisco, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do the same against Minny.
Daniel Jones, Giants (31%). You’ll never feel confident about starting Jones. But the fantasy numbers are usually there. Like Goff, he’s been a viable fantasy streamer every week other than Week 3 (and that week was close, with 16.54 points). And he gets a Kleenex Ultra Soft matchup against Dallas’ exploitable secondary this week. He should have another useful fantasy performance.
Running Backs
Damien Williams, Bears (9%). Just because it’s chalky doesn’t mean it ain’t true. Volume is the name of the game, and with David Montgomery dealing with a knee injury, Williams is the only game in town for the Bears. He’s likely to be the top added back of the week.
Samaje Perine, Bengals (3%). With Joe Mixon dealing with an ankle sprain, Perine is next in line for the early down and goal line work. Rookie Chris Evans should factor in as the primary passing down back.
Jeremy McNichols, Titans (2%). He’s the one getting the work in the passing game, which is what we like to see around these parts. Plus, he plays Jacksonville this week, which is another thing we like to see around these parts. He had 12 targets in Week 4, which was a top 10 number and best among all running backs. Hopefully he can parlay that kind of usage into another useful stat line in Week 5.
Kenny Gainwell, Eagles (29%). He’s the passing down back. We focus on barely-rostered passing down backs. Say it with me, kids.
Wide Receivers
Kadarius Toney, Giants (3%). I recommended Toney as a stash in the Week 3 column, and he emerged in Week 4 as the most targeted receiver for the Giants. For as long as Sterling Shepard is out, Toney remains a viable option - and especially this week against the Cowboys. And who knows -- if he plays well in the short term, he could parlay that into a starring role for the remainder of the season. This dude was a first round pick in the NFL draft, after all.
Jamison Crowder, Jets (20%). Volume is always the name of the game. Slot receivers get volume. Crowder is now healthy and serving as the Jets’ slot receiver. Any questions, kids?
Hunter Renfrow, Raiders (26%). See the blurb above about Jamison Crowder. Renfrow is the Raiders’ slot receiver, and he gets volume. He’s got a quality matchup against the Bears in Week 5, and the Monsters of the Midway are one of the top ten friendliest defenses against opposing wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz, Cowboys (34%). He’s been very involved for the Cowboys this year, garnering at least 6 targets in all but 1 game. With Michael Gallup out, there are additional targets available in the Cowboys offense, and Dak Prescott is funneling plenty of them Schultz’s way. Schultz has 3 touchdowns in the past 2 games, and he has a tasty matchup against the Giants this week, who are a bottom-5 team against the tight end.
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (18%). With Rob Gronkowski out for the foreseeable future, Brate should see an uptick in snaps. There are still plenty of other mouths to feed in the Tampa Bay offense, including Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown, but if Tom Brady has taught us anything over the course of his career, it’s that he loves to spread it around. And he’s got a history of looking for his tight ends in the red zone, know what I mean? If you’re starting Brate, you’re banking on a touchdown, but he’s got as good of a chance as anyone, given his quarterback.