Weekly Hail Mary: Week 3
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds (66%) of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 4 of 13 recommended plays last week, for a 31% success rate. We absolutely crushed it with quarterbacks, completely whiffed with tight ends, and had mixed results with wide receivers and running backs - although we DID give you a top 10 play at RB this week! Let’s recap:
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos - HIT - To be honest, this was a pretty easy call. Bridgewater posted 21.22 fantasy points in a pillow-soft matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He had 328 yards and two touchdowns. Start your offensive players against the Jags, folks.
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers - HIT - Despite modest passing totals, Garoppolo was a Top 5 quarterback after the 1 pm games. He had 20 yards rushing and a rushing score in addition to his nearly 200 yards passing and one touchdown through the air.
Tyrod Taylor, Texans - MISS - Tyrod was well on his way to a Top-12 finish due to one score through the air and one on the ground. He got hurt and didn’t play the second half, though, so he finished his day with 16.50 points. It was a usable week and didn’t kill you, but the injury was brutal. He easily would have been a “hit” if he had played the final two quarters.
Running Back
James White - HIT - We doubled down on White after Week 1, and he paid off BIG. He had 18.50 fantasy points, which was good enough to be a RB1 this week. His production was due to 6 receptions for 45 yards as well as 5 carries for 20 yards and a touchdown.
Elijah Mitchell - MISS - The process was good, but the results weren’t. Mitchell led the team in carries, but he just wasn’t able to do much with it against a stout Philadelphia defensive front. He had nearly 20 touches, but barely exceeded 50 yards from scrimmage. Stay patient; better days are ahead.
Tony Jones, Jr. - MISS - The game plan got away from the Saints, as they got blown out from the opening whistle by the Panthers. There wasn’t much running in this one, and Jones received only three carries.
Wide Receiver
Tim Patrick, Broncos - HIT - Patrick had 12.7 points, and he was exactly what I predicted him to be: a good bet for a short touchdown. He finished his day with 3 catches for 37 yards and a touchdown.
KJ Hamler, Broncos - MISS - One reception for three yards against a terrible defense. Woof.
Hunter Renfrow, Raiders - MISS - This one is a miss, but just barely. He was only 0.7 points away from being a “hit,” and if you started him you’re probably pretty happy with that. No Raiders player saw more targets than Renfrow on Sunday.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - MISS - With 4 passing touchdowns for Aaron Rodgers, you’d figure at least one of them would have wound up in MVS’ hands. Nope. A big 0-fer for MVS. Better days are ahead, but this one hurts.
Tight End
Cole Kmet, Bears - MISS - Kmet hauled in one pass for no yards. Just a brutal day in what was a really soft matchup on paper.
Adam Trautman, Saints - MISS - Kmet was better than Trautman, though, who wasn’t even targeted this game. Really odd, considering he had a 30% target share in Week 1. I’ve not totally given up on him yet, but it’s likely that his Week 1 target share was an aberration.
Tyler Conklin, Vikings - MISS - Despite a high-scoring affair with the Cardinals, Conklin just didn’t get in on much of the action.
Moving onto Week 3, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones, Giants (19% owned). I feel dirty recommending Daniel Jones, and I don’t think he’ll match his lofty production from Week 2. But I do think he should have a decent enough fantasy day at home against the dreadful Falcons defense.
Andy Dalton, Bears (2%). Ignore this recommendation if he sits, because he got hurt early in the Week 2 game against the Bengals and did not return. But if he plays, he has a tasty matchup against a Browns defense that has gotten absolutely destroyed the first two weeks of the season. He is very familiar with playing in Cleveland, so there is probably a comfort level there as well. Justin Fields is rostered in about half of Yahoo! leagues, so he is ineligible for this list, but obviously, if he is named the starter and he is available in your league, you should consider starting him as well. Our recommendation is to start the Bears’ quarterback this week, whomever that may be. [9/24/21 Editor’s Note: Fields has been named the starter for Sunday. Start Fields.]
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (10%). Third week in a row for Jimmy G. He’s quickly becoming a HMF poster boy. But he’s got a nice matchup at home against a Packers team that should be better against the run than against the pass. As a bonus, San Francisco plays in primetime on Sunday night, so you’ll get to watch him put up fantasy points for your team.
Running Backs
Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons (13%). Warning! Warning! This is chasing last week’s points. But he’s getting nearly as many carries as Mike Davis, and he is also involved in the passing game. He probably has a reasonably safe floor at this point as a flex play.
J.D. McKissic, Washington (29%). McKissic was the face of the Weekly Hail Mary in 2020, and his ownership has finally dropped low enough that we can start using him again. We like to target guys who are the third down receiving backs for their teams and have a fairly secure workload. McKissic, Patterson, and last week’s recommended streamer James White all fit that bill. Nobody ever wants them, but they are PPR gold. Your job isn’t to have the biggest names on your squad. Your job is to put up points. These guys are reliable sources of points.
Alex Mattison, Vikings (32%). Dalvin Cook got nicked up against Arizona but was able to finish the game. I am recommending Mattison ONLY if Cook is ruled out for Week 3. He would get the lion’s share of the workload against a Seahawks defense that has been getting absolutely gashed on the ground. Again, ignore this recommendation if Cook is playing.
Wide Receivers
Rondale Moore, Cardinals (33%). You just saw him go off against the Vikings, and now he gets the Jaguars’ tissue-paper soft defense. A repeat of Week 2’s stat line is unlikely, but he should still be plenty involved.
Jalen Reagor, Eagles (26%). Reagor faces off against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football this week. The Cowboys’ secondary has been a laughing stock for years. Sometimes it’s just that easy.
Emmanuel Sanders, Bills (22%). Sanders has been seeing a reasonable target volume, and the production is bound to come. He has 6 targets or more each of the first two weeks and he has soft matchups against Washington, Houston, and Tennessee in three of his next four. Washington just got destroyed on Thursday Night Football by Daniel Jones, so I’m betting Josh Allen will have an even easier time with them than the Giants did. Sanders seems due for a touchdown - likely a deep one.
Bonus: I’m not necessarily recommending this player as a start this week, but it might be a good time to pick up and stash WR Kadarius Toney of the Giants (2% owned). This is just a hunch. Toney has hardly been used the first two weeks and has been venting publicly and to his coach about his lack of usage. I suspect Joe Judge and Jason Garrett will find some way to get him involved against the Falcons’ soft defense.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz, Eagles (29%). Ertz faces off against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, who are worst in the league against the tight end. And they almost gave up two more tight end scores in Week 2 (to Donald Parham and Jared Cook), but both were called back on penalties. Either Ertz or Dallas Goedert should feast against Dallas.
Adam Trautman, Saints (10%). Doubling down on Trautman. I think his lack of targets in Week 2 was an anomaly. The Saints play the Patriots in Week 2, who have been a top 2 team against the tight end so far, but they’ve also only gone up against Mike Gesicki and Tyler Kroft. The Saints offense was humming in Week 1 when Trautman was heavily targeted. It sputtered in Week 2 when he was not. Let’s get back to what works.
Eric Ebron, Steelers (7%). I’ve seen this movie before. Pittsburgh tight ends usually destroy the Bengals. Plus, if Diontae Johnson is out with injury (maybe), Ebron’s target share should go up.
Maxx Williams, Cardinals (2%). [Editor’s note: This was a late addition to the article on 9/25.]. Williams absolutely exploded last week with 7 receptions for 94 yards, and this week he gets the Jaguars in a week where DeAndre Hopkins is at best banged up and at worst is out. He should see another healthy target share against Jacksonville. Fire up your starters against the Jags!