Early "Do Not Draft" List (Based on ADP)
Earlier this week we listed our Early 2021 ADP values - the guys you definitely want at their current cost - and now we flip the script to the guys who are way overpriced, and whom you should avoid at their current ADP. I will not be owning any of these players unless their price drops significantly. All ADP results given below are taken from Yahoo! as of July 25.
Nick Chubb, RB, Browns (8.4 ADP). I have nothing against Chubb - he’s a solid, reliable running back - but he’s pretty much being drafted at his ceiling as the 8th pick of the first round. Do you really think this guy has the potential to finish as a top 5 running back? He splits carries with Kareem Hunt, and he doesn’t handle much passing game work. Absent an injury on his own team (and to several of the backs rated above him), he doesn’t have Top-5 upside. In the first round, I want someone with Top-5 upside. I have no problem drafting Chubb in Round 2, but I don’t understand the appeal as a first round choice.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (14.2). Currently going as the second pick of the second round, and that’s way too rich for my blood. Mahomes probably has better odds of finishing among the top 5 quarterbacks than any of the other passers, but the opportunity cost is too great here. You only start one QB, people! You start at least 2-3 RBs and 2-3 WRs, and they’re harder to find. I highly doubt I will own Mahomes on any fantasy teams this year. I’m likely going wide receiver at the 2.02 spot, unless maybe Steelers RB Najee Harris is there. I would not even consider Mahomes until the top of Round 5, and even that might be too rich. This same argument can be made against Josh Allen, as well, as Allen is also currently being drafted in Round 2. Sorry, I’m just not interested in any quarterbacks that early.
Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins (49.1). Gaskin is going at the top of the 5th round, and I just can’t. The only reason we like Myles Gaskin is because he was productive in a limited sample size last season. But you know who else was productive in a limited sample size? His teammate, Salvon Ahmed. Plus, the team brought in Malcolm Brown this off-season, who may well siphon off the goal line looks. And they also drafted RB Gerrid Doaks in the 7th round of this year’s draft. Are we sure Myles Gaskin is “the guy” for Miami? I cannot justify drafting Gaskin in Round 5 when there are more talented, more reliable players available at that point, such as Robert Woods, Adam Thielen, CeeDee Lamb, DJ Moore, and Cooper Kupp.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions (50.0). He’s the second pick of Round 5. Are we really confident that Hockenson is that much better than guys like Logan Thomas, Noah Fant, or Mike Gesicki, all of whom are going several rounds later? What part of 723 yards and 6 touchdowns screams “draft me in Round 5”? Detroit’s offense, on paper, looks like it’s going to be pretty bad. I’m avoiding all Lions until the later rounds.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles (61.5). Really? On a Jalen Hurts-led offense, we’re drafting this guy in Round 5? With Zach Ertz still on the team? I’m not looking Goedert’s way until Round 8 at the earliest.
Justin Tucker, K, Ravens, and Harrison Butker, K, Chiefs (79.6 and 82.3). Going in the middle of Round 7. Just asinine. Never draft a kicker before the final three rounds of your draft.
Is there anyone else you are avoiding at their current ADP? Let us know in the comments!