Sneaky Picks for Wide Receiver Volume
Fantasy football is a game that’s all about volume. The number of opportunities that a player receives has a strong correlation to fantasy production. Wide receivers can’t catch the ball if they aren’t being targeted, and they can’t score touchdowns unless they’re touching the ball. We all want the guys who are touching the ball the most and scoring the most.
In the early rounds, this is obvious. We know who the guys are who are the fantasy superstars, who rack up tons of catches and yards and touchdowns. But for some reason, in the later rounds, we often lose sight of who the top targets are. Maybe we write guys off because they didn’t have lofty touchdown totals before. Maybe we try to shy away from perceived “bad” offenses. Whatever the reason, we don’t always embrace the opportunity to snag target hogs on various offenses.
At the end of the day, you want a team’s WR1 on your fantasy squad. Those are the guys with the easiest paths to targets and, consequently, production. Here at Hail Mary Football, we have put together a list of all of the WR1s who are going in the eighth round or later. You should pounce on these guys at their cost, as they should have ample opportunity to outproduce their draft day cost this season.
Tee Higgins, Bengals (Rd. 8). Higgins is going, on average, in the 8th round, the same round as teammate Ja’Marr Chase and two rounds ahead of Tyler Boyd. All of these guys should return value, but if Higgins is the presumed top target, he’s the guy you want.
Rashod Bateman, Ravens (11th). Yes, I know the Ravens don’t have a high volume passing attack. But they do throw the ball enough to support one viable fantasy receiver. We don’t know what Bateman is yet, but we know what Hollywood Brown is: a guy who doesn’t command a ton of targets. Bateman’s 11th round draft cost makes him a worthwhile flier as someone who could see 80-100 targets. (Ed. note: Since this article was published, Bateman has injured his groin and will miss most if not all of the preseason, but is expected back for the regular season in September.)
Will Fuller, Dolphins (9th). This one seems like a no-brainer. Yes, I know he’s suspended for the first game of the season. And I know that he seems to miss games every year. But when this dude is healthy, he can BALL OUT. He was a top wide receiver last year before his PED suspension, racking up 879 yards and 8 touchdowns in just 11 games. That translates to more than 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns over the course of a 17-game season. It would be foolish to pass him up at his 9th round price tag just because he’s going to have to sit out the first game of the season. This is a guy who can give you second round value at a ninth round cost.
Corey Davis, Jets (11th). Nobody seems to want poor Corey Davis. Everyone who was ever interested in him has owned him at some point in the past four years, and he just never quite lived up to expectations of being the 5th overall pick in the draft. He’s gradually improved each year, though, and last year graded as a top-10 WR per Pro Football Focus. At an 11th round price tag, with gunslinger/#2 overall pick Zach Wilson chucking him the pigskin, he’s almost a lock to return value that exceeds his ADP.
Nelson Agholor, Patriots (12th). Ok, hold your nose if you have to. None of us are getting excited about drafting Nelson Agholor. But the dude was productive with the Raiders last year (896 yards and 8 touchdowns), has a first round draft pedigree, and doesn’t have a lot of competition on the Patriots depth chart (unless you’re a big believer in Kendrick Bourne or Jakobi Meyers, which I am not). It seems like his early-career “bust” status had more to do with being played out of position in the slot, rather than on the outside. He learned to succeed in an outside role with Las Vegas, and the hope is that he can do the same with New England. Exercise caution if targeting Agholor, though - his value is probably higher with Mac Jones under center than Cam Newton.
Michael Pittman, Colts (11th). Admittedly, I was more excited about Pittman prior to Carson Wentz’s injury. But early reports on Wentz have him coming back as soon as Week 2, so don’t fade Pittman too much. TY Hilton’s star is slowly dying, which leaves Pittman as the best option in the passing game. The second-year player has the size (6’4”, 220 lbs) that you like to see in an alpha wideout, and his college production was stellar (101 catches, 1275 yards, and 11 TD his final year at USC). In the 11th round, why not take the gamble?
D.J. Chark, Jaguars (9th). Let’s see here…. we have a guy who is 6’4, who bulked up in the off-season, who runs a 4.34 forty… already had a 1,000 yard season in the NFL … and now gets to catch passes from number 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence? In a contract year? His 9th round draft cost is criminally low. He could be a top-15 WR by the time the season is over.
Brandin Cooks, Texans (10th). Can I interest you in a 27-year-old wide receiver who already has five 1,000-yard seasons to his name (including one last year)? Yeah, I get it - the Texans QB situation is uncertain. But they’re still going to throw the ball at least 500 times, regardless of who is under center. Who do you think is going to get most of those targets? Rookie Nico Collins? Geriatric David Johnson? Recently acquired draft bust Anthony Miller? This is the Brandin Cooks show. Three years ago you would have had to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on this guy, and now you can get him in Round 10. Pounce.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos (9th). ADP keeps flip-flopping back and forth between Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. I’m focusing on Sutton, as he was going slightly higher in the 9th round when I researched this article, and frankly I just like him better. He has that prototypical body type for a number one WR in the NFL, and he was well in his way to superstar status before an ACL tear derailed his third season before it really got underway. The last time we saw him healthy, he caught 72 balls for 1100 yards and 6 touchdowns. Assuming the knee is right, he should at least hit those numbers again in 2021.
Henry Ruggs, Raiders (11th). I’m not terribly smitten with Ruggs, but he fits the profile of what we’re talking about. Going into the 2020 draft, I saw him as a one-trick pony speed demon. Those guys are a dime a dozen in the NFL (just ask Kenny Stills and Breshad Perriman), but they almost always get overdrafted. His first year with the Raiders was a bit of a flop, but there is some hope that Jon Gruden & Co. move him around the formation more this year and give him some slants and hitches as opposed to just go routes. At any rate, we know the Raiders love to throw it, and they’re itching for another pass catcher to emerge to complement Darren Waller. Plus, we’ve seen time and again second-year breakouts from wide receivers, so an 11th round pick seems fairly reasonable for Ruggs. I’d definitely take him over teammate John Brown, who is going at about the same spot in drafts.
Devonta Smith, Eagles (10th). The reigning Heisman trophy winner will likely end up getting drafted higher than this by the time it’s all said and done, especially if the Eagles consummate the rumored Deshaun Watson trade. As it stands, Smith is going in the 10th round, which is perfectly reasonable for the top wide receiver in Philly’s offense. The only Philadelphia pass catcher going higher than him is Dallas Goedert, who usually goes somewhere in Round 7.
Tyrell Williams/Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (undrafted). This is the dart throw of all dart throws, but it could pay off. People seem to be completely writing off the Lions offense because Jared Goff is, well, kinda stinky. And sure, I agree he wasn’t worth the first overall pick, but it’s not like the guy is totally incompetent. He is, at worst, a game manager, and even those guys can support some decent fantasy options. He’s thrown the ball at least 550 times each of the past three seasons, and during that timeframe he was able to support two fantasy-relevant receivers in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. Why do we all of a sudden think that no wide receivers in a Jared Goff-led offense can be relevant? I get it, Dan Campbell ain’t Sean McVay. But just based on what we’ve seen Goff do in the past, is it that unreasonable to think he can turn one or two wideouts into useful fantasy assets? Amon-Ra St. Brown projects as the slot guy and is somewhat of an unknown, but he was a five star recruit coming out of high school and had an early breakout age at USC, which bodes well for his pro prospects. Tyrell Williams is always a bit up and down, but (1) he does have a 69-catch, 1,000-yard, 7-touchdown season on his resume, and (2) he was recruited to play in Detroit by his old head coach, Anthony Lynn, who is now the offensive coordinator for the Lions. Based on experience, Lynn knows exactly what this guy can do, and likely has big plans for him in Detroit’s offense. As the last pick of your draft, Tyrell the Gazelle is sure to return value if he can stay healthy.