Early 2021 ADP Values
We’ve reached the end of July. The fantasy football degenerates have been mock drafting since the conclusion of the NFL draft in late April, and the casual fans are just starting to get into drafts. The last three months or so have shown several early values based on average draft position (ADP). All results given below are in terms of Yahoo! ADP as of July 25.
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers (ADP 24.2). Currently going at the top of Round 3, I’ve got Harris rated higher than several backs going before him, including J.K. Dobbins, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, and Austin Ekeler (and a strong argument can be made for taking him over Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor). Assuming health, Harris seems positioned for 325+ touches as a rookie, and that type of volume typically leads to a Top-7 finish. I get that he has a bad offensive line, and I get that he’s a rookie. But give me that kind of volume for a team that typically has a good offense. I don’t understand why people looked at Clyde Edwards-Helaire - an inferior prospect - as a top 5-6 pick last year, but they’re not considering Harris this year until Round 3. Is it because they were burned by CEH? Whatever the reason, they’re missing the boat on quality RB for 2021. I’d be considering Harris if I had a draft choice at the back end of Round 1, and if I passed on him there, I’d definitely pounce on him without thinking about it if he’s available in Round 2.
Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers (39.4). Godwin is available midway through Round 4, and is going after guys like David Montgomery. Puh-leeze. He’s got top 10 potential at wide receiver, as he showed us in 2019. Don’t let 2020’s injury-riddled campaign scare you off. This guy is the most consistent, reliable wide receiver the Bucs have. He should not be going half a round later than his teammate, Mike Evans. Frankly, I prefer him to Evans outright.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys (49.7). Lamb is going near the top of Round 5, but I’d like him in the middle to back end of Round 4. He had a solid rookie reason, and played most of the year without Dak Prescott. He could explode this year. I like him better than several other wideouts going before him, such as his teammate Amari Cooper and the Rams’ Robert Woods.
Ronald Jones, RB, Buccaneers (68.9). Lombardi Lenny gets the love, but I prefer RoJo in Round 6 to his teammate Fournette, as Jones was the team’s primary ballcarrier for most of last season. At his sixth round price tag, he’s a great target for ZeroRB truthers.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers (63.9). He’s going at the top of Round 6, and as a PPR maven with room to grow, he could be a league-winning player.
Odell Beckham, Jr., WR, Browns (77.4). Currently being drafted at the top of Round 7, Beckham is a steal. This is drafting a player at his absolute floor - a player whom we know has Top 5 upside at wide receiver because he’s done it before. I’d love to snap up Beckham here as my WR3 or 4.
Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos (85.9). A potential starting RB in Round 8 is great value, in my opinion. His cost could skyrocket if Melvin Gordon holds out of camp, as rumored.
David Johnson, RB, Texans (100.5). Yes, he’s old. Yes, he’s not what he used to be. But he’s a starting running back, and those are in short supply. And he wasn’t as bad as you think in 2020. He had 4.7 yards per carry, he caught 33 balls in only 12 games (about 3 per game, or a pace of 51 catches over a 17-game season), and he had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage to go along with 8 total touchdowns. He’s not the David Johnson of old - and he may just be an old David Johnson - but he’s certainly someone you can use as a bye week filler or injury replacement. That’s an asset you can be happy with at a 9th round price tag, as he gives you exactly what you need at that cost.
Did we leave anyone out? Leave your thoughts in the comments box!