Weekly Hail Mary: 2020 Recap
Our target for the season was a 33% hit rate. I am pleased to report that we crushed that goal, hitting on 42% (70 of 166) of our recommended plays! Below, you will find more in-depth analysis on each position, and our thoughts on how we can improve our process moving forward, to better serve you in 2021.
Quarterback
We had a 42.5% success rate (17 for 40) on streaming quarterbacks, which frankly is a good deal lower than where we should be. However, most of that was due to a brutal opening stretch of the season for us. After Week 4, our rate improved to 59% (16 of 27), which is pretty darn fantastic. For example, if you had lost Dak Prescott in Week 5, you could have rolled with our recommendations for the remainder of the season and had a pretty good chance of making the playoffs. Although I’m not happy with myself for the 42.5% rate overall, I am certainly pleased with a success rate hovering near 60% after the opening quarter of the season. I may adjust our target rate next year to try to get above 50% on the season for streaming quarterbacks, so that we can continue setting our sights higher. One thing that is worthy of note is that one of our greatest calls was NOT recommending Derek Carr in Week 11 against the Falcons, when nearly every other fantasy analyst on the planet was promoting him as a recommended play. Carr then responded with one of the worst fantasy performances in history. You’re welcome, America.
Running Back
This was the biggest surprise area. Conventional wisdom tells you that running back is the shallowest position and the most difficult to stream. Our results this year, though, suggest otherwise. We hit on a whopping 58% of running back plays (25 of 43), which is astounding when you consider that we were recommending guys who were available in just one-third of Yahoo! leagues. We only had two weeks (Weeks 4 and 5) where none of our recommended running backs “hit.” Every other week, we recommended at least one guy who delivered RB2 value or better. The process here was good, and was simple: focus on those backs who (a) are projected to get volume and/or (b) catch a lot of passes. J.D. McKissic, in particular, was kind to us this year. Don’t get caught up in the name recognition of the player. Running back production comes down to volume and usage. Even so-called “bad” players can be useful for fantasy if they’re getting work.
Wide Receiver
In 2020, we hit on 19 of 49 wide receivers, for a 39% success rate. This is still above our target, but not quite where I’d like to be. The overall results surprised me, to be candid. I expected to do a bit better with this position group since this was the deepest player pool to choose from. But perhaps therein lies the problem. We had as many as five recommended streamers on some given weeks. I think next year, I need to narrow down our recommendations to those guys that I am most confident in, and recommend no more than 4 wide receiver streamers (and ideally only 3) in any given week. In terms of patterns, I did notice that our hit rate took a deep dive from Weeks 10-13 (2 for 15, or 13%). That’s not surprising, since often times early-season streamers become permanently rostered, and are no longer eligible for consideration. Prior to Week 10, we hit on our wide receiver streamers at a rate of 50%, so hopefully you were able to pounce on and retain some of those recommended players and improve your roster for the stretch run. (More info on those players who became weekly stalwarts is in the final section of this article.)
Tight End
This position was the most difficult to stream this year, which is an unusual phenomenon. Typically, the easiest positions to stream are (in order) quarterbacks, defenses, and tight ends. For whatever reason, tight end was a wasteland this year. Our high water mark was Week 4, when we hit on two-thirds of our recommended streamers. For the season, though, we hit on only 26% (9 of 34), which is well below our target range of 33%. We had a particularly brutal four-week stretch from weeks 8 through 11 where we didn’t have a single hit. We will have to reevaluate our process prior to next season to determine how to improve with our tight end streamer recommendations. One preliminary thought is that perhaps I have been overreaching at tight end by recommending too many players, as I usually recommended three. Our hit rate could improve if we leave out some of those fringe guys and just recommended one or two tight ends each week.
Year in Review: Overall Weekly Hit Rate for 2020
Week 1: 0/4 QB, 3/4 RB, 2/3 WR, 1/3 TE
Week 2: 0/3 QB, 3/7 RB, 3/4 WR, 0/3 TE
Week 3: 0/3 QB, 3/3 RB, 0/4 WR, 1/4 TE
Week 4: 1/3 QB, 0/3 RB, 2/4 WR, 2/3 TE
Week 5: 2/4 QB, 0/2 RB, 1/3 WR, 1/3 TE
Week 6: 1/2 QB, 1/3 RB, 3/4 WR, 1/2 TE
Week 7: 2/3 QB, 4/5 RB, 1/3 WR, 1/3 TE
Week 8: 2/3 QB, 2/3 RB, 3/5 WR, 0/3 TE
Week 9: 3/3 QB, 3/3 RB, 2/4 WR, 0/3 TE
Week 10: 1/4 QB, 2/4 RB, 0/4 WR, 0/2 TE
Week 11: 2/3 QB, 1/2 RB, 1/3 WR, 0/1 TE
Week 12: 1/3 QB, 2/2 RB, 0/5 WR, 1/2 TE
Week 13: 2/2 QB, 1/2 RB, 1/3 WR, 1/2 TE
Our Best Calls from 2020
We had several great calls in 2020 that, if you picked them up, should have turned into every-week starters for you. For example, we were early adopters of Steelers WR Chase Claypool, recommending him all the way back in Week 3. Since that time (as of this writing, prior to the Steelers game in Week 15), all he has done is score 9 touchdowns (7 receiving, 2 rushing). We also recommended this year’s undrafted gem, Jaguars RB James Robinson, back in Week 1. You’re probably tickled pink if you picked him up when we recommended him if you subsequently rode him to 1,000 yards rushing, 7 rushing touchdowns, 49 receptions, 344 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns. We also hit on Vikings WR Justin Jefferson fairly early in the year, recommending him all the way back in Week 4. If you picked him up when we recommended him, you were immediately rewarded with a 100-yard game. Since we first listed him as a streamer, he has gone on to score 6 touchdowns and post nearly 1,000 yards. Not bad!
Not all of the Weekly Hail Mary recommendations turned into year-long stars, but several became very useful pieces, including the following:
RB Cam Akers, Rams - Akers was not eligible for this list early in the year because he was too heavily rostered. Later in the season, though, he qualified, and we began recommending him regularly. For about a month beginning on Thanksgiving weekend, Akers went on an absolute tear, including when we recommended him in Weeks 12 (84 yards rushing and a touchdown) and 13 (72 yards rushing and a touchdown). After that, he was too heavily owned to be eligible as a weekly streamer. But for what it’s worth, in Week 14 he had 171 yards rushing. You’re pretty happy if you picked him up when we initially recommended him, as you had a quality RB2 down the stretch.
RB Wayne Gallman, Giants - We first started recommending Gallman in Week 9, and he proceeded to rip off four straight games with at least 100 yards or a touchdown.
RB Damien Harris, Patriots - He was first recommended in Week 5, and has rewarded patient owners with a couple of 100-yard games.
RB Jerick McKinnon, 49ers - McKinnon has posted 6 touchdowns on the year. Most importantly, he delivered touchdowns in the weeks we recommended him (Weeks 2 and 3).
RB J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team - The HMF poster boy for this year, McKissic is the type of unsexy name that keeps you competitive in your matchups week in and week out. Nobody wants him, but he was a reliable source of points due to his pass-catching prowess. We recommended him consistently from Weeks 6-10. Since Week 6, he has had games with 6, 2, 9, 7, 3, 2, 10, 2, and 9 receptions. It’s fairly insane for a running back to get that kind of high volume in the passing game - especially one who is a part-time player. McKissic was also usually a good bet to get around 70-80 yards from scrimmage. We only stopped recommending him once his ownership percentage got too high, but hopefully you still had him for his 10 receptions in Week 13 and his 9 receptions in Week 15. That’s the nature of the beast in this business - if we’re good at what we do (i.e., the players “hit”), our recommended plays end up being too highly rostered for us to continue recommending!
WR Robby Anderson, Panthers - First recommended in Week 1, Anderson has snagged 85 balls for over 1,000 yards this year. He’s been a very reliable WR3/Flex option.
WR Corey Davis, Titans - Another player who was an afterthought heading into the 2020 season, Davis has likely earned himself a decent payday this offseason when he hits free agency. He is going to wind up the season with over 1,000 yards and already (as of Week 15) has 5 touchdowns. We recommended him back in Week 8 against the Bengals, which was his first real blowup game since Week 1. In that contest against Cincinnati, he had 8 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. If you stuck with him, you got three more 100-yard games out of him, including 110 and a tiddy in Week 15 in the fantasy playoffs against Detroit.
WR Tee Higgins, Bengals - Higgins was first recommended in Week 4, and was a very reliable option until Joe Burrow’s season ending injury. Through Week 14, he had 58 receptions, 778 yards, and 5 touchdowns. He has seen at least 5 targets in every game this year, and had a nine-game stretch from October 11-December 13 where he had 8 or more targets in all but two games. He has surpassed AJ Green and Tyler Boyd as the chief weapon in the Bengals’ passing attack.
WR Tim Patrick, Broncos - Another HMF staple, Patrick was recommended a whopping five times this year after initially being disregarded as an afterthought in the Broncos offense. I mean, how could the guy possibly produce in 2020 being behind Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon in the pecking order - in a Drew Lock offense??? Well, produce he did. Patrick has three 100-yard games this year along with 6 touchdowns. Did he put up some stinkers along the way? Sure. And he’s not a high volume player. But he is the big-bodied TD-maker in that Broncos offense, and he has been a useful bye-week or injury-replacement guy. If you were desperate, he often gave you a prayer.
TE Jordan Reed - Reed has been a reliable streamer following George Kittle’s injury. He’s typically seeing around 6 targets per game and has pulled in four touchdowns on the year.
TE Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team - It took Thomas a while to get going, he has 5 touchdowns on the year and has absolutely exploded in the month of December, posting at least 9 receptions and 98 yards in 2 of 3 games.
I did not include any quarterbacks on this list, because unlike with other positions, the goal with streaming QBs isn’t really to find a gem you can use for the entire season; it’s to hit on a guy for one week and then toss him back into the pool a week or two later and find someone else who can help you. There’s no shortage of supply of useful quarterbacks. But for other positions, such as RB and WR, it is critical not only to hit for one week, but to find a guy who can be a useful starter for long stretches of the season. We definitely did that this year, and we hope these recommendations helped you to contend for a fantasy title. See you next year!