Weekly Hail Mary: Week 14
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Week 13 was a weird week. We had fewer recommendations than normal, and a lot of our recommended plays ended up getting ruled out before the game, so we have a lot more “PUSH” results than usual. For the week, we hit on 2 of 5 recommended plays, for a 40% success rate:
Quarterback (18.5 points minimum)
Tua Tagovailoa - MISS - Tagovailoa played pretty clean football in this one: 244 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, no turnovers. He had 17.86 fantasy points, so he didn’t kill you, but he was just outside the Top 12 (14th on the week), so he doesn’t qualify as a hit for this week.
Daniel Jones - PUSH - Jones was ruled out before the game due to his neck issue.
Running Back (8.1)
Tevin Coleman - HIT - Coleman only received 11 carries, but he did lead the Jets’ backfield by a large margin and wound up with 77 scrimmage yards for the day. He also chipped in 3 receptions, which propelled him to a usable 10.7 fantasy points.
Jamaal Williams - HIT - Williams turned 17 carries into 71 yards and also caught a pass for 9 yards. He finished with 9.0 fantasy points. Not sexy by any means, but certainly useful, as he exceeded our minimum thresholds.
Boston Scott - MISS - Scott was out most of the week during practice due to a non-COVID illness, and he was active only as an emergency RB against the Jets. Kenny Gainwell served as the RB2 - and scored - and that was the logic in recommending Scott. RB2s have been tearing apart the Jets all season.
Wide Receiver (11.4)
Sterling Shepard - PUSH - Shepard remained inactive with his quad injury.
Will Fuller - PUSH - Fuller remains sidelined with his broken finger suffered in Week 4. Reports this week emerged that the initial break was described as the bone being “shattered.”
Tight End (9.0)
C.J. Uzomah - MISS - Despite seeing 6 targets against a Charger defense that has been terrible against tight ends, Uzomah absolutely stunk in this one. He had only 3 catches for 20 scoreless yards. He had two balls clang off his hands that almost turned into interceptions. He was awful in this contest.
Moving onto Week 14, below are our recommended Hail Marys. The playoffs start in most leagues in Week 15, so this will be our last set of streamers for the year. Let’s try to go out on a high note:
Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill, Saints (34% rostered). In a game where he threw 4-INTs, Hill still finished as a top-5 quarterback in Week 13. That should tell you all you need to know. He’s the modern-day Tim Tebow: terrible real-life QB, but very useful fantasy QB. He gets the Jets in Week 14, who are only so-so against opposing passers.
Cam Newton, Panthers (29%). Cammy has had two weeks to prepare for a Falcon defense that is bottom-5 in the NFL against opposing passers. Plus, Konami code and all that. Fire him up.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (29%). Lawrence gets the woeful Titans defense in Week 14. His best game of the season came in Week 5 against that same Titans defense (actually, they’ve had some injuries since then and are arguably worse in the secondary).
Running Backs
Adrian Peterson, Seahawks (15%). Peterson is totally cooked, and about 7 years past his prime, but he’s still getting touches. Most importantly, he’s getting the MONEY touches in the Seahawks’ offense: the goal line carries. He had a goal line score in Week 13, and he faces the Texans, a bottom-10 run defense this Sunday. I don’t love this call, but at this point in the season, there really aren’t many RB options on the wire unless there’s an injury.
Wide Receivers
Tim Patrick, Broncos (25%). Denver plays Detroit in Week 14, which has a better secondary than you’d think (top 10 against the pass). But the wire is pretty thin for wide receivers right now, and Patrick has the large frame that Teddy Bridgewater likes to target in the red zone.
K.J. Osborn, Vikings (26%) [ed. note: player added 12/8]. In the wake of Adam Thielen’s high ankle sprain, Osborn becomes an every-down player for the Vikings. He saw 7 targets following Thielen’s injury last week, which he turned into 47 yards and a touchdown. On a short week at home against the Steelers’ bottom-10 secondary, he projects as a respectable streamer this week.
Sterling Shepard, Giants (27%). Like last week, this is only if he plays. But if he comes back, I like his opportunity against the Chargers. The Chargers are great against the pass, but more vulnerable to slot receivers than to the outside. If the Giants are going to move the ball, it’s going to be over the middle. More on that below…
Tight Ends
Evan Engram, Giants (29%). Engram faces off against the LA Chargers on Sunday, and the Chargers are bottom-3 against the tight end for fantasy purposes (CJ Uzomah’s crummy performance in Week 13 notwithstanding). Regardless of whether Mike Glennon or Daniel Jones is under center, Engram should be a viable streamer this week.
David Njoku, Browns (6%). The last time Njoku faced the Ravens, he got loose for a touchdown. Baltimore remains bottom-5 against the tight end, so maybe lightning can strike twice and Njoku can find paydirt once again. [12/8 Update: The Browns are placing Njoku on the COVID-19 list, so pivot to teammate Austin Hooper (22% rostered). As noted, Baltimore is bottom-5 against the tight end, and now Hoopershould see even more snaps with Njoku sidelined.]