Weekly Hail Mary: Week 13
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 5 of 8 recommended plays last week, for a 63% success rate:
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence - HIT - He didn’t qualify under the points rubric (18.5), but it was a fairly low-scoring week for quarterbacks and he finished among the top 12, so he’s a “hit.” He had 18.02 fantasy points, so if you were expecting 18.5, you probably ain’t complaining - especially this week.
Andy Dalton - HIT - Death, taxes, and Andy Dalton face-planting in a nationally televised game. Some things are inevitable. In vintage-Andy-Dalton fashion, he threw an INT in the end zone inside two minutes. But ultimately, in his Thanksgiving matchup with Detroit, he wound up with 16.78 fantasy points, which was good enough to just barely be a top-12 scorer for the week. Hey, we’ll take it!
Tyrod Taylor - MISS - Tyrod tossed a couple of scores and also had 30 yards rushing, so he wasn’t completely useless, but he finished the day with under 160 yards passing and also had a turnover. He wound up with 16.32 fantasy points, which didn’t kill you, but it certainly wasn’t what we expected in a soft matchup against Gang Green.
Running Back
Boston Scott - HIT - We suggested in the Week 12 column that Scott could see another 8-10 touches and perhaps luck into the end zone. Well, that’s essentially what happened. Miles Sanders got banged up in this one and was in and out of the game, leading to a larger-than-expected workload for Scott. He carried the ball 15 times for 64 yards and a score, and also corralled 2 passes for 8 yards. He wound up with 14.2 fantasy points.
Wide Receiver
Kendrick Bourne - HIT - Bourne was one of our biggest smashes of the season. Going up against the Titans’ leaky secondary, he capitalized with 5 catches, 61 yards, and 2 touchdowns en route to 23.10 fantasy points.
Cedrick Wilson - HIT - With Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb ailing, Wilson seized his opportunity and ran with it. He topped the century mark in receiving yards and tallied 7 catches, finishing with a strong 17.4 fantasy points.
Will Fuller - PUSH - Fuller still has not been activated from IR, so he is a “push” for yet another week.
Tight End
Evan Engram - MISS - What a “yuck” game. No Giant had more receptions than Engram, and only Kenny Golladay was targeted more, but the New York offense just never really got going in this one. Maybe (recently fired) former offensive coordinator Jason Garrett wasn’t the problem.
Austin Hooper - MISS - Right process, wrong result. Baltimore has been dreadful against the tight end and gives up scores to the position nearly every week, but it was teammate David Njoku, not Hooper, who found the end zone against Baltimore. Hooper was only targeted 3 times, and failed to haul in any of them.
Moving onto Week 13, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones, Giants (28% rostered). You’ll never feel good about starting Daniel Jones, but he does bring that “Konami Code” rushing element and his matchup this week against Miami is reasonably soft. Plus, he may get Kadarius Toney and/or Sterling Shepard back this week, which increases his chances of having a productive day. [Editor’s Note 12/3/21: Current reports are that Jones is injured and Mike Glennon is expected to start, so remove Jones from the list of streamers.]
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (33%). Look, Tua was bad this past week, and has only tossed 3 touchdowns in his past 4 games. But the schedule softens up considerably from here. He faces the Giants this week, then has a bye, then finishes the fantasy season against the Jets, Saints, and Titans. He’s a decent enough start this week, and likely a great start the rest of the way. But if you want him, you’ll have to grab him now, as his ownership percentage is ticking up above our thresholds, and he likely won’t be eligible for our Weekly Hail Marys moving forward.
Running Backs
Boston Scott, Eagles (19%). Going back to the well with this one. But with Miles Sanders at less than 100% and Jordan Howard again a likely inactive nursing an injury of his own, and Scott heads into a matchup with the Jets as the healthiest ball-carrier on the roster. Plus, even #2 running backs have torn up the Jets this season. Any way you slice it, he’s a reasonable spot start this week.
Tevin Coleman, Jets (18%). I am absolutely disgusted with myself for recommending a Jets running back. But when that Jets running back is Tevin Coleman… bleh, I’ve reached a new low. Tevin Coleman has been burning fantasy managers for the better part of the past decade. But in Week 13, you really don’t have many options on the waiver wire in terms of guys who are seeing a heavy workload. In Week 12, Coleman had 18 touches. That’s gold at this point in the season. He turned it into only 70 scrimmage yards and 9 fantasy points, but hey, that’s above our thresholds!
Bonus name: Jamaal Williams, Lions (40%). His rostership percentage is just a tad above our threshold, but I’m tossing him out here because he’s still available in 3 out of every 5 leagues, so there’s a good chance he will be available on your waiver wire. As a result of D’Andre Swift’s injury, he should start (at least) this week for the Lions against the Vikings, who are a pretty favorable matchup for opposing runners. He’s also got a fairly safe floor due to his receiving ability.
Wide Receivers
Sterling Shepard, Giants (29%). Rely on this only if he’s active. He’s been injured, but if he’s able to work his way back for Week 13, he has a tasty matchup against the Dolphins, who are one of the most favorable matchups in the NFL for opposing wideouts.
Will Fuller, Dolphins (24%). For the fourth week in a row… this is only if he plays. But once he suits up again, he has weekly top-12 upside. I feel much better about starting Tua if Fuller plays. If he doesn’t, I don’t feel great about the Dolphins.
Tight Ends
CJ Uzomah, Bengals (18%). Don’t bet against Uzomah in soft matchups. The Bengals play the Chargers in Week 13 in a Justin Herbert-Joe Burrow showdown. The Chargers are the second-friendliest defense in the league to opposing tight ends, which gives Uzomah a decent chance of putting up TE1 numbers.
That’s it for tight ends this week. Most anyone with a pulse at the position is rostered right now.