Weekly Hail Mary: Week 12
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 3 of 6 recommended plays last week, for a 50% success rate:
Quarterback (18.5 points minimum)
Cam Newton - HIT - In his first start for Charlotte in nearly two years, Newton posted 26.16 points on the strength of 3 touchdowns (2 passing, 1 rushing). Not bad if you were scrambling for a Lamar Jackson replacement on Sunday morning.
Tyrod Taylor - HIT - The passing numbers weren’t great - he barely sniffed 100 yards through the air - but he saved his day with 2 rushing scores. He gave you just what you needed out of a viable streamer, posting 19.08 fantasy points.
Running Back (8.1)
Jeff Wilson, Jr. - HIT - The process was good here, as Wilson saw 20 touches on Sunday (19 rushes, 1 reception), and volume is typically the name of the game. Despite all those opportunities, though, his production was horrendous, as he mustered only 58 scoreless yards and 6.80 fantasy points. Nevertheless, he managed to finish among the top 36 running backs, which technically qualifies him for this list.
Wayne Gallman - MISS - False alarm in recommending Gallman. He was ahead of Mike Davis last week after the Cordarrelle Patterson injury only because they were losing and Arthur Smith knew they’d be playing on a short week on Thursday Night and would “need” Mike Davis.
Salvon Ahmed - PUSH - Ahmed was inactive after Duke Johnson was signed and elevated from the practice squad.
Wide Receiver (11.4)
Sterling Shepard - PUSH - Still recovering from injury, he was not active for Monday night’s game.
Will Fuller - PUSH - He has yet to be activated from IR.
Tight End (9.0)
Dan Arnold - MISS - Arnold posted a zero-target stinker against the 49ers. His ownership percentage got up above 40% heading into the game, but this goose egg will likely push his ownership levels back down to where he can be a viable streamer again.
Cole Kmet - MISS - Just 1 reception for 12 measly yards in a prime matchup. Really disappointing. I chalk this up to the QB change mid-game. Kmet had a rapport heading into this game with Justin Fields, but it doesn’t look like he has much chemistry with Andy Dalton.
All in all, it was a successful week, as we hit our target rate of 50%. Moving onto Week 12, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor, Texans (6% rostered). It wasn’t pretty this past Sunday, but Taylor got the job done via use of his legs. We’re counting on more of the same against the Jets this week, who are so-so against the pass but are absolutely dreadful against the run.
Andy Dalton, Bears (1%). Check the inactives list before kickoff. But if Dalton is starting over the injured Justin Fields, he could be a viable streamer against the Lions on Turkey Day. The Lions are certainly worse against the run than against the pass, but their pass defense is still only so-so, and if Dalton gets decent protection (and if Allen Robinson returns) he could easily toss a couple scores against Detroit. But… always beware Andy Dalton in a nationally televised game. I’m a Bengals fan, and I’ve seen the Dalton-in-prime-time meltdown too many times to count.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (32%). This year’s #1 overall pick has been terrible the past three weeks. Absolutely terrible. But he gets his softest matchup of the season against the Falcons this weekend, and the dirty birds are the third-friendliest matchup against opposing passers. If not now for Lawrence, then when?
Running Backs
Boston Scott, Eagles (21%). This call is made with great misgivings, but the cupboard is pretty bare at running back right now. Jordan Howard got hurt on Sunday and will miss Week 12, and for whatever reason the Eagles can’t fully commit to Miles Sanders. The Eagles’ opponent this weekend, the New York Giants, are bottom 10 against opposing rushers, and Scott saw 8 touches in Week 11 when he was still fending off Howard for carries. So it’s not THAT much of a stretch to think he could see another 8-10 touches and perhaps luck into the end zone.
Wide Receivers
Will Fuller, Dolphins (25%). I will keep making this call until he returns from IR. The matchup against Carolina isn’t great, but Fuller has top 10 upside any given week. Fire him up if he’s active. Ignore this recommendation if he’s not.
Cedrick Wilson, Cowboys (4%). If Amari Cooper (COVID) and CeeDee Lamb (injury) both miss the Thanksgiving game against the Raiders, as expected, opportunities will be there for Wilson and Michael Gallup. Opportunity is the name of the game here, especially when playing with an elite quarterback.
Kendrick Bourne, Patriots (20%). It’s hard to get enthusiastic about New England’s passing game, but hey, they’re facing the Titans, who are the friendliest defense to opposing wideouts. Bourne rarely sees a ton of volume, but he has the ability to take it to the house when facing soft coverage.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram, Giants (32%). The Giants face the Eagles in Week 12, who are the worst team in the league against defending the tight end. Sometimes, it’s just that easy.
Austin Hooper, Browns (22%). Hooper hasn’t had a great season, but he’s facing the Ravens on Sunday Night Football, and Baltimore is giving up tight end scores nearly every week.