Weekly Hail Mary: Week 11
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 5 of 7 recommended plays last week, for a 71% success rate:
Quarterback (18.5 points minimum)
Taylor Heinicke - HIT - Heinicke had only 15.74 fantasy points, but was still a top 12 QB for the week, so he technically qualifies as a “hit” under our grading rubric. It was an ugly week at QB, and he outscored fantasy stars such as Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, and Russell Wilson, so if you started him, you’re probably happy.
Ben Roethlisberger - PUSH - Roethlisberger was ruled out prior to the game due to COVID.
Running Back (8.1)
Devonta Freeman - HIT - This just goes to show how very little it takes to be considered an RB2 in fantasy. Freeman had only 3 catches for 23 yards to go along with 35 yards rushing, but that was enough for 8.8 fantasy points.
Jeff Wilson, Jr. - MISS - The workload was promising, but the production (2.8 fantasy points) was lacking. Still, you have to be encouraged by him getting 10 carries in his first game back in action. We’ll likely be recommending him again in the future. Double digit touches for a RB is nothing to sneeze at this deep into the season.
Wide Receiver (11.4)
Elijah Moore - HIT - Moore now has 4 straight games with at least 6 targets. Over the course of a season, that projects to over 100 targets, which is something you can definitely work with. He found the end zone on Sunday, which makes it 3 scores in the past two weeks. He finished with 13.4 fantasy points, which is pretty darn good considering he was facing the Buffalo Bills, which are the stingiest defense in the league against opposing fantasy wideouts.
DeSean Jackson - MISS - Jackson had only one catch in his Silver-and-Black debut. Better times are ahead once he gets fully acclimated to the offense.
Will Fuller - PUSH - Fuller was not activated from IR in time for the game. Maybe we’ll finally get to see him in Week 11.
Tight End (9.0)
Tyler Conklin - HIT - Top 5 tight end this week with 16.10 fantasy points. Conklin only had 3 grabs, but two of them were touchdowns.
Dan Arnold - HIT - I told you he’s had at least 5 targets in each of his past four games. And now it’s five straight. He hauled in 5 of 7 targets for 67 yards on Sunday, continuing his streak as Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target. He finished his day with a useful 13.7 fantasy points.
Moving onto Week 11, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton, Panthers (17% rostered). Hello, old friend! Newton played well in his return to the Panthers in Week 10, and he gets a favorable matchup against the Washington Footballers in Week 11. The Football Team gives up more fantasy points to opposing QBs than any other team in the NFL. And that was before they lost Chase Young for the season to a torn ACL. This is shaping up to be a smash spot for Newton.
Tyrod Taylor, Texans (5%). Taylor, like Newton, brings rushing appeal, so there’s generally a safe floor (as long as he doesn’t throw three picks like he did the last time we saw him in action). The matchup against Tennessee isn’t overly taxing, as the Titans are a bottom-10 defense against opposing quarterbacks this season.
Running Backs
Wayne Gallman, Falcons (1%). Gallman should be the top pickup of the week. After Cordarrelle Patterson went down in Week 10, it was Gallman, not the more highly regarded Mike Davis, who received the lion’s share of the touches. Gallman had 15 carries to Mike Davis’ 4, and looks to be the Falcons’ primary ball-carrier moving forward. He plays at home against the Patriots on a short week this week. You know if he goes off on Thursday Night Football, everyone in your league is going to be after him. Snap him up early. At least for the short term, he projects to have volume, and volume is king in fantasy.
Jeff Wilson, Jr., 49ers (20%). He should be the goal line back for the 49ers against the Jaguars, and likely is in line for at least 10-12 touches.
Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins (3%). With the exception of Samaje Perine, nearly every team’s #2 running back has scored against the Jets. This past week, the trio of Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Matt Breida (remember him?) ALL had scores against the Jets. I definitely have serious trepidation about recommending Ahmed since he just came off a game with only 3 touches, but . . . it’s the Jets. If you’re truly desperate, Ahmed may be able to bail you out in a pinch. He may also goose egg you. But the numbers say to give him a shot.
Wide Receivers
Will Fuller, Dolphins (25%). I’m going to keep recommending him until he is finally activated from injured reserve. I’ve said before and I’ll say again: He’s the only guy presently available on waivers that has Top 10 rest-of-season upside at wide receiver. And after doing this for several years, I am of the opinion that wide receiver is the most difficult position to stream.
Sterling Shepard, Giants (34%). Here’s another guy where you have to monitor the injury designation heading into the game. But if Shepard is activated in time to play against the Bucs on Monday Night Football, he should be a solid play. It’s extremely difficult to move the chains using the running game against the Bucs, so if the Giants want to stay competitive, they’re going to have to let Daniel Jones throw (said no sane analyst ever). If Jones throws, Shepard is likely to be his preferred target, and should rack up catches out of the slot.
Tight Ends
Dan Arnold, Jaguars (27%). I’m going to keep beating this drum until people finally catch on. He’s rostered in only a quarter of leagues and I genuinely don’t understand why. He has double digit points in 4 of his last 5 games, and at least 7 targets and 60 yards receiving in 3 straight. Never turn down volume at tight end! This dude is getting volume. The opponent doesn’t matter. He’s our recommended streamer until further notice.
Cole Kmet, Bears (18%). Kmet has disappointed me more times than I can count this year. And if I had to choose between Arnold and Kmet, I’m definitely choosing Arnold. But Kmet has a super-soft matchup against the Ravens this week, who just can’t seem to cover tight ends this year (CJ Uzomah scored TWICE on them!). Kmet has 3 straight games with at least 6 targets, and seems to be building a rapport with Justin Fields. He’s as good of a bet as any streamer tight end for a touchdown this week.