Weekly Hail Mary: Week 6
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 5 of 12 recommended plays last week, for a 42% success rate:
Quarterback (18.5 points)
Trey Lance - MISS - It was a miss, but just barely. Lance wasn’t anything special through the air in his rookie debut, but he offers so much with his legs that he has a safe floor. He put up 15.58 fantasy points, largely due to 89 yards rushing (on 16 attempts).
Jared Goff - MISS - 203 yards and a pick with no touchdowns, for a measly 8.12 fantasy points. Just a really bad performance. I expected a lot more against Minnesota’s defense.
Daniel Jones - MISS - I still think Jones would have ended up having a good stat line, but he was knocked out of the game with injury.
Running Back (8.1 points)
Damien Williams - HIT - Williams, as expected, started in place of the injured David Montgomery, and rewarded fantasy managers with 84 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, for a rock-solid RB2 performance of 16.4 fantasy points.
Samaje Perine - HIT - Joe Mixon got the “start,” but this was the Perine show from the opening whistle as Mixon still worked through his injury issues, until Mixon finally took over in the fourth quarter. Perine had 83 combined yards from scrimmage and a receiving touchdown, finishing with 18.3 fantasy points. Not bad for a spot starter!
Jeremy McNichols - MISS - He saw 12 targets in Week 4 but only 2 in Week 5, and his production obviously suffered as a result. He gave you only 5.5 fantasy points if you started him.
Kenneth Gainwell - MISS - Gainwell wasn’t all that involved in this one, with just 3 touches for the game and a forgettable 3.4 fantasy points.
Wide Receiver (11.4 points)
Kadarius Toney - HIT - The lesson we’ve learned here? Always start a player whose name makes it sound like he could be a Jedi. This was another great call for HMF, continuing our recent streak of having at least one superstar recommendation at WR or RB. Heading into the Sunday night game, Toney was a Top 5 receiver for the week, finishing with 29.60 fantasy points on the strength of 10 receptions for 189 yards - most of which came with Mike Glennon at quarterback. Toney is making it harder and harder for the team to bench him when Sterling Shepard returns. This offense is likely at its most potent if Toney, Shepard, and Kenny Golladay are healthy and feature as the starting wide receivers. For now, Tony is the only one who isn’t ailing, but after throwing a punch in Week 5, he may face a suspension from the league.
Jamison Crowder - MISS - He didn’t ghost you, but he didn’t really show up, either. He hauled in 4 of 6 targets for only 24 yards, but he did corral a two-point conversion to at least muster 8.4 fantasy points. He didn’t kill you if you started him in your FLEX, but you’re still left wanting more.
Hunter Renfrow - HIT - He’s a hit, and just barely! He gave you exactly what is needed to qualify as a viable HMF streamer, finishing with 11.6 fantasy points (the threshold is 11.4). He hauled in 6 of 8 targets for 56 yards, and that’s about par for the course for what he does: he’s had between 6 and 9 targets in every game this season. He continues to be a viable play that is still available in more than half of all leagues.
Tight End (9.0 points)
Dalton Schultz - HIT - Admittedly, it feels nice to finally be hitting on tight ends again after a multi-week drought. Schultz was plenty involved on Sunday, hauling in 6 passes for 79 yards en route to 13.9 fantasy points. Even with all of the weaponry that Dallas has, Schultz was still the most-targeted Cowboy on Sunday.
Cameron Brate - MISS - Well, Tom Terrific threw FIVE touchdowns, but not a single one went to Brate. Oh well. Tight ends have been particularly difficult to stream this year. What can I say? Having a 50% hit rate at the position isn’t too shabby.
Moving onto Week 6, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Footballers (16% rostered). It’s typically not pretty with Heinicke, but at the end of the day the stat line is usually there in soft matchups. His DGAF style of play lends itself well to a home date with the Chiefs. Washington is likely gonna need to throw a ton to keep up in this one.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (23%). I do make this recommendation with some trepidation, as Ben looked completely cooked the first four weeks of the season … and then lit up the Broncos vaunted defense in Week 5. A matchup against a soft Seahawk defense may let him make it two good games in a row. The Legion of Boom, this Seahawk secondary is not.
Carson Wentz, Colts (14%). Wentz hasn’t been what you would call “good” this year, but his schedule hasn’t done him any favors, either. His easiest matchup of the season came in Week 1 against the Seahawks, which also wound up being his highest fantasy output so far. In Week 6, he gets the hapless Texans, which is the most fantasy-friendly defense he’s faced this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him set a season high in passing yards and touchdowns this week.
Running Backs
Devontae Booker, Giants (7%). Look, it ain’t rocket science. When a running back goes down, you scoop up his backup. With Saquon Barkley out for the foreseeable future with an ankle injury, Booker is a must-add across all formats. He acquitted himself well in relief of Barkley in Week 5, with a touchdown both on the ground and through the air.
Khalil Herbert, Bears (19%). Damien Williams was expected to take over the backfield. But he kinda didn’t. He split touches evenly with the rookie Herbert, and Herbert actually out-touched him on the ground 18-16. There’s no reason to believe he won’t get a similar workload against the Packers in Week 6. But remember, if you’re starting Herbert, you’re starting a guy in a 50/50 timeshare on a bad offense.
Darrel Williams, Chiefs (17%). Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dealing with an MCL sprain, and Williams should be next man up for the Chiefs. But “should” is the operative word there. The Chiefs haven’t seemed to really commit to any of their running backs since Kareem Hunt. It was actually QB Patrick Mahomes who led the Chiefs in rushes on Sunday against the Bills. Even with CEH ailing, Darrel Williams got only five rushes. Still, he was the most effective of all the backs, averaging 5.4 yards per tote; no other Chiefs RB exceeded 2.0. He’s got a reasonable-enough matchup against the Washington Football team on Sunday, who are squarely middle-of-the-road against opposing fantasy rushers. I could see him giving you flex-level production, with the chance for a low-end RB2 day if he falls into the end zone. I’m predicting 12-14 touches for 70ish yards.
Wide Receivers
Kadarius Toney, Giants (18%). Pay attention to the disciplinary status. If he faces league discipline and gets a suspension, you’ll need to scoop him up and stash him for Week 7. But if he plays this week, you’ve got to fire him up against the Rams. As the slot receiver, I don’t think he’ll get any shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey, which means he’s matchup up against lesser corners.
Jalen Reagor, Eagles (17%). You’ve gotta have a strong constitution to start Reagor, but hear me out. The only times this season where he’s posted double digit fantasy points are in matchups against opposing defenses that are bottom 7 in the league against opposing wide receivers. This week, he has a date against the Bucs - the most fantasy-friendly team to opposing wide receivers - on a short week at home. If you were ever going to start him, this is probably the week to do it.
Tim Patrick, Broncos (31%). I’m least enthused about Patrick, even though he’s been a HMF staple for a long time. The matchup against the Raiders is tougher than you think. Still, he saw 9 targets on Sunday, which is pretty darn useful, and he’s #2 in the passing game pecking order behind Courtland Sutton since Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are out with injuries. I’m more excited about him in Weeks 8 and 9, when he gets Washington (3rd friendliest defense against opposing wide receivers) and Dallas (4th), but you may have to stash Patrick for the next two weeks against Vegas and Cleveland if you want to have him for those latter matchups. This week he’s only a flex play for me.
One other name to throw out there: I’m not necessarily recommending him, but I am watching Jamal Agnew (0%) of the Jaguars very closely. In their first game without DJ Chark, Agnew saw 8 targets and a rushing opportunity. If they’re going to get the ball in his hands, we have to pay attention to him. Closely monitor how they use him this week.
Tight Ends
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team (2%). Opportunity is there for RSJ with Logan Thomas missing time due to injury. He was tied for second on the team in targets (8) in Week 5. In fact, only two tight ends - guys you might have heard of named “Kelce” and “Pitts” - had more targets than he did. He is also the primary red zone weapon for the Footballers, given his massive size. Terry McLaurin can’t do everything for Washington… can he?
Mo Alie-Cox, Colts (2%). Full disclosure, I wrote this column before the Colts’ Monday Night Football tilt against the Ravens, so I have no idea what he did or didn’t do in that game. But the Ravens are the worst team in the league against the tight end, and Indy’s Week 6 opponent, the Texans, are the second-worst. If I’m going to recommend Carson Wentz, I should probably recommend one of his pass-catchers.