Weekly Hail Mary: Week 8
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 7 of 11 recommended plays last week, for a 64% success rate:
Quarterback (18.5 points minimum)
Tua Tagovailoa - HIT - Nailed it!!!! Tagovailoa capitalized on a soft matchup against Atlanta’s secondary, tossing four touchdowns and nearly 300 yards. Playing the matchups usually leads to good results, as evidenced by Tua’s performance here.
Daniel Jones - MISS - But barely. Jones passed, he ran, and he caught the football on Sunday. Jason Garrett was actually pretty creative in how he used him. Unfortunately, Jones was just lacking in the touchdown department, as the G-Men got a bunch of points through field goals in this one.
Jimmy Garoppolo - MISS - This dude is such trash. Every time I recommend him, he responds with 180 yards passing, one TD, and some turnovers. I need to learn my lesson and just stay away from this guy no matter what the numbers say.
Running Back (8.1)
D’Ernest Johnson - HIT - The most popular running back pickup of Week 7 rewarded fantasy managers who immediately inserted him into their lineups. On a short week, he exploded for more than 160 yards from scrimmage and a score, resulting in 24.8 fantasy points.
Kenneth Gainwell - HIT - This isn’t a case of being lucky rather than good, because Gainwell got his receiving score before Miles Sanders’ ankle injury knocked him out of the game. He had 15.1 fantasy points following 60+ yards from scrimmage and a receiving touchdown.
Rhamondre Stevenson - PUSH - Was inactive. Always check the inactives list, kids. We don’t take a loss when guys aren’t on the active roster.
Jaret Patterson - PUSH - We told you to start him ONLY if Antonio Gibson was inactive. Gibson was active, so we don’t consider Patterson as a recommended play for the week.
Wide Receiver (11.4)
Russell Gage - HIT - In his return to action, Gage was reasonably involved, and caught 4 balls for 67 yards and a touchdown. Enjoy the 16.7 fantasy points, America.
Rashod Bateman - MISS - But just barely. Bateman hauled in 3 of 6 targets for 80 yards, finishing with 11.0 fantasy points.
Elijah Moore - MISS - Although another close one. Moore had 10.2 fantasy points (on the strength of a rushing score!) in the Jets’ blowout loss to the Patriots.
Darius Slayton - HIT - I’m cheating a little bit here, because Slayton had 11.3 points, but come on. If the baseline is 11.4 and you got 11.3, you’re satisfied. Slayton was a late addition to the HMF streamers on Saturday, based on the logic that he’d see heavy volume due to Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Kadarius Toney missing the game. And that came to fruition, as he saw 9 targets in his return to the lineup.
Tight End (9.0)
Ricky Seals-Jones - HIT - Although it might not have felt like a hit, Seals-Jones crossed the minimum threshold to be a startable asset against the Packers, finishing with 11.1 fantasy points on 6 receptions for 51 yards.
C.J. Uzomah - HIT - We CRUSHED it with this one! Uzomah was the top tight end of the week, with 3 catches for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns en route to 24.1 fantasy points.
Moving onto Week 8, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos (20% rostered). The Broncos last played on Thursday Night Football, so they’ve had ten days to prepare for a home date against Washington. The Football Team gives up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the league. And Bridgewater likely gets Jerry Jeudy back for this one. There are a lot of reasons to like Teddy B this week.
Daniel Jones, Giants (28%). The G-Men have a showdown with the Chiefs at Arrowhead on Monday Night Football. Jones should have some of his weapons back for this one, and they’re going to need to put serious points on the board if they want to keep pace with Patty Mahomes & Co. The Chiefs have a beatable secondary (2nd-most fantasy friendly to opposing QBs), so you’re just playing the odds by starting Danny Dimes this week.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (21%). It’s not often that the quarterbacks facing the three most fantasy-friendly defenses are all available on waivers, but that’s the case this week. Pittsburgh faces off against Cleveland in Week 8, which was giving up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks before losing Denzel Ward to injury on Thursday Night Football. There’s always risk to starting Roethlisberger at this point in his career because physically he just looks completely cooked, but the numbers say that this should be one of the safer starts for him this season.
Running Backs
Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles (21%). With Miles Sanders’ injury, Gainwell may be the lead dog moving forward. That’s always worth an add. Also keep an eye on Boston Scott, who looks like the other back who will join the timeshare with Gainwell. The Eagles play the Lions in Week 8, who are the second-friendliest defense to opposing runners.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (22%). It’s a pretty bare cupboard at running back this week, but Stevenson should see around 8-10 touches against a Charger defense that is bottom-5 against opposing running backs. But like last week, pay attention to the inactives. If he’s not active, he’s not a recommended play.
Wide Receivers
Zach Pascal, Colts (7%). Pascal has assumed a more prominent role in the Colts offense with the injuries to Parris Campbell and TY Hilton (whom we shall collectively refer to as “Parris Hilton”). He really isn’t a threat to go over 100 yards, but he does see a decent number of targets as well as work in the end zone, so he could have a fairly productive fantasy day against the Titans, who are the most fantasy-friendly defense to opposing wide receivers.
Darius Slayton, Giants (6%). Let’s double down on Slayton. Like the commentary with Jones above, you’re going to have to score a bunch if you want to keep up with the Chiefs. He should go into this matchup as the healthiest of all of the New York wideouts.
Will Fuller, Dolphins (30%). This play is recommended ONLY if Fuller is activated from IR in time for the game against the Bills (and early reports say he will not be active). Although Buffalo has a great defense, Fuller is the sort of speed demon who can make great defenses look silly. He’s exactly what Miami needs to open up their offense, and he just hasn’t really been healthy yet to this point in the season. He’s a much better talent than the other folks that are available on the waiver wire right now, so he’s certainly worth a dart throw if he’s healthy enough to play. But again - check the inactives list before kickoff!
Tight Ends
Dan Arnold, Jaguars (4%). Arnold has been involved pretty heavily since being acquired by Jacksonville for former first round pick C.J. Henderson. He’s averaged nearly 7 targets per game over his past two games, which coincides with the Jaguars’ loss of D.J. Chark. It’s conventional wisdom (though who knows if it’s true) that rookie QBs love to use their tight ends as a safety blanket, and Arnold has a reasonably-soft matchup against Seattle this week.
One final note… Your editor-in-chief is in the process of moving this coming week, so there may not be a column for Week 9. If there is no Week 9 column, rest assured that we will be back for Week 10.