Weekly Hail Mary: Week 9
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We apologize to our readers for our recommendations last week; there were some real stinkers. That typically happens once or twice a year. In Week 8, we hit on only 1 of 8 recommended plays, for a 12.5% success rate:
Quarterback (18.5 points minimum)
Daniel Jones - MISS - 17.08 points for Danny Dimes. Close, but no cigar. Would have qualified as a hit but for that untimely INT.
Teddy Bridgewater - MISS - Bridgewater totally collapsed in what should have been a prime matchup against Washington’s shaky secondary, finishing with only 1 touchdown and 213 yards passing for a measly 12.62 fantasy points. Given the matchup and the return of Jerry Jeudy, more was expected.
Ben Roethlisberger - MISS - Roethlisberger was only marginally better than Bridgewater, with 14.64 fantasy points. Like Teddy B, he had only 1 touchdown in a soft matchup against Cleveland’s beatable secondary.
Running Back (8.1)
Kenneth Gainwell - MISS - The process was right, but the player was wrong. The Eagles rushed for four touchdowns on Sunday, but none of them went to Gainwell. Instead, two went to Boston Scott and two went to Jordan Howard, elevated from the practice squad earlier in the week. Gainwell did see 13 carries, which is all you can ask for from a waiver wire streamer, but he only turned them into 27 yards, and he shockingly didn’t have a single target. He only had 2.7 fantasy points on the day.
Rhamondre Stevenson - MISS - Stevenson was a tad more productive, but not appreciably. He had only 4 fantasy points on the day, with 30 yards on 9 touches. Hey, at least he was active this week!
Wide Receiver (11.4)
Zach Pascal - MISS - Pascal was ok, but not quite up to the 11.4-point threshold. He was targeted 8 times and caught 5 passes for 43 yards. Although he’s reasonably involved with TY Hilton on the shelf, he’s fairly touchdown-dependent.
Darius Slayton - MISS - Slayton put up a goose egg stinker in this one. I wouldn’t rush to drop him, though, as Sterling Shepard is hurt again, so he should see more targets moving forward.
Will Fuller - PUSH - The recommendation was clear: Play him ONLY if he was activated from IR. He wasn’t activated.
Tight End (9.0)
Dan Arnold - HIT - Honestly, this call seemed too easy. Arnold has been heavily targeted since being acquired nearly a month ago, as he has quickly developed a rapport with Trevor Lawrence. T-Law targeted him on Sunday 10 times, and Arnold caught 6 of them for 68 yards en route to 14.80 fantasy points.
Moving onto Week 9, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Taysom Hill, Saints (2% rostered). Anyone who saw Jameis Winston’s knee injury on Sunday knows that he’s done for the season. Hill has been hurt himself, but is supposed to be back for Week 9. As always: IF HE’S NOT ACTIVE/STARTING, DON’T PLAY HIM. But if he is, he’s got that Konami Code/rushing appeal, so he should present a reasonably safe floor, and he’s got a soft matchup against a tissue-paper thin Atlanta secondary this week. [11/5/21 Update: Sean Payton has announced Trevor Siemian as the team’s starter this week, so Hill has been removed as a recommended play.]
Tyrod Taylor, Texans (6%). Konami Code, Part II. Tyrod is supposed to return from IR this week, and like Hill, offers a reasonable floor due to his rushing. He faces off against Miami in Week 9, which has fielded a much more disappointing defense than anticipated at the outset of the year.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (35%). [Ed. Note 11:30 AM Sunday - Tua is OUT this week and is not a recommended streamer.] We just talked up Tyrod, so let’s stick with this game and flip to the other team. The Texans’ defense ain’t all that and a bag of chips, which means Tagovailoa has a decent chance at having a useful fantasy day - especially if Will Fuller returns. (Spoiler alert: More on him later.)
Running Backs
Boston Scott, Eagles (20%). Both Scott and Howard found the end zone twice on Sunday, but I trust Scott a bit more because he wasn’t on the practice squad ten days ago. Howard could also be picked up, but if I had to hitch my wagon to one of them, I’d go Scott over Howard.
Carlos Hyde, Jaguars (6%). The matchup against Buffalo is suboptimal. However, if James Robinson misses the game, Hyde should coast into 20 touches. If Robinson plays, ignore this recommendation; but if he’s out, fire up Robinson for low-end RB2/flex value.
Adrian Peterson (1%), Titans. The Big Dog is hurt and could miss the rest of the season. The Titans just signed Adrian Peterson, and Jeremy McNichols is the incumbent. I probably lean toward Peterson, since he’ll get the early down and goal line work, whereas McNichols is the pass game guy. Both should get plenty of volume against the Rams on Sunday Night Football, but Peterson is the one I’d feel more comfortable starting.
Wide Receivers
Rashod Bateman, Ravens (31%). Bateman faces off against an average Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 9, so the matchup itself is neither good nor bad. But when we last saw him before the Ravens’ Week 8 bye, he was gobbling up a large target share in this offense. My gut tells me he gets in the end zone this week.
Van Jefferson, Rams (12%). DeSean Jackson was released following his request for a trade, which theoretically should free up more looks for Jefferson, and the Rams have a matchup against Tennessee on Sunday. The Titans, as you may recall, are the most friendly defense in the NFL to opposing wide receivers - and no team in the NFL has a higher percentage of its targets going to wide receivers than the Rams.
Will Fuller V, Dolphins (29%). THIS RECOMMENDATION IS ONLY IF HE IS ACTIVATED FROM IR. EARLY REPORTS ARE THAT HE WILL NOT BE ACTIVATED. But if he’s playing, watch out. He’s the only guy with top-5 upside who is available on waivers. And although the Texans are (surprisingly) decent against opposing wide receivers, this is the #revengegame for Fuller, and you know he’d love to stick it to his former team with a long touchdown. Plus, if I’m recommending Tua, I should probably recommend one of his pass-catchers.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin, Vikings (25%). Conklin faces off against the Ravens, who are the friendliest defense in the NFL against opposing tight ends. We’ve banged the drum on this matchup for several other tight ends so far this year, with successful results, so we’re going back to the well this week.