Weekly Hail Mary: Week 7
Welcome to Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. If you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer... a prayer at winning your fantasy matchup, that is!
Each week of the fantasy football regular season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are the lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. This year, we’re offering a NEW AND IMPROVED format where we are recommending no more than four potential streamers (and typically only three) at each position. Our goal is a 50% hit rate for the year, which is really pretty darn good when you think about it, since we’re only choosing from the dregs.
Our determination of hits and misses is objective. We use the following criteria to determine whether a player is a “hit”:
Quarterbacks - Finish in the top 12 among quarterbacks or score at least 18.5 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 12th-best scoring QB last season. We use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
Running Backs - Finish in the Top 36 among running backs, since most leagues start two running backs and a flex; or put up 8.1 fantasy points, which was the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring RB last season.
Wide Receivers - Finish in the Top 36 among wide receivers, since most leagues start 3 WRs or 2 WR and a flex; or put up 11.4 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 36th-best scoring WR last season.
Tight Ends - Finish in the Top 12 among tight ends, or put up 9.0 fantasy points, which would have been the average weekly output for the 12th-best TE last season. Like with quarterbacks, we use 12th-best as the cutoff because that is what constitutes being starter-worthy in 12-team leagues.
We hit on 6 of 11 recommended plays last week, for a 55% success rate:
Quarterback (18.5 points minimum)
Carson Wentz - MISS - Wentz was close with 17.02 points, but he just barely missed the 18.5 minimum threshold. He didn’t kill you if you started him, but the Colts just didn’t need to throw very much after they built their lead against Houston, and spent most of the second half of the game running the ball.
Ben Roethlisberger - MISS - Ben has just lost “it.” He had 229 yards and 1 touchdown against a very mediocre defense. It’s hard to trust him as a streamer from here on out, despite pretty good weapons in Claypool, Johnson, Freiermuth, and Harris.
Taylor Heinicke - MISS - He put up only 10.28 points in a game that many pundits assumed would be a shootout. That’s two weeks in a row with fewer than 12 fantasy points. It appears that the league may have figured Heinicke out. Come back soon, Fitzy.
Running Back (8.1)
Darrel Williams - HIT- With all due respect to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, being the starting tailback in a Kansas CIty offense all but guarantees potent fantasy production. Williams toted the rock on Sunday 21 times en route to 62 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also chipped in 3 catches for 27 yards through the air, resulting in a 23.9 point fantasy day.
Khalil Herbert - HIT - Volume leads to production. With all the other Bears’ runners ailing, Herbert carried the load Sunday with over 110 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown for 19.2 fantasy points.
Devontae Booker - HIT - Booker didn’t have a great game, and if you started him, you’re probably disappointed because you expected more, but he actually does qualify as a hit based on his 10.9 fantasy points. He had 12 rushes for 41 yards as well as 4 catches for 28 yards. If you scooped him up on waivers, you can probably rest assured that this is what you can expect as a “floor” game from him - around 15 touches and 70 yards, with modest involvement in the passing game.
Wide Receiver (11.4)
Tim Patrick - HIT - Patrick is such a baller. He’s practically a 50/50 bet to score a short to midrange TD every week. This week, he had 3 catches for 42 yards and a score, en route to 13.2 fantasy points. He’s as reliable as a cup of coffee.
Kadarius Toney - MISS - Toney caught all 3 of his targets for 36 yards before exiting during the opening drive with an ankle injury. The usage was encouraging, and he’s definitely a “hold.” When he returns to health, he’s going to be a featured part of the offense, and is potentially a league-winner.
Jalen Reagor - MISS - Reagor put up a goose egg on three targets. I think it’s finally safe to conclude that this dude is a first round draft bust. It’s got to sting the Eagles knowing that Pro Bowl WR Justin Jefferson was the very next pick.
Tight End (9.0)
Ricky Seals-Jones - HIT - On a day when most of the Washington pass-catchers were ailing, Seals-Jones was a reliable target for Taylor Heinicke. He hauled in 4 of 6 targets for 58 yards, including a 39-yard touchdown catch. He finished his day with 15.8 fantasy points.
Mo Alie-Cox - HIT - Often, all it takes is a touchdown to be a startable tight end for the week. Alie-Cox faced off against the Texans on Sunday, who are the most fantasy-friendly defense in the league against opposing tight ends. He responded with one catch for 28 yards and a touchdown, which propelled him to 9.8 fantasy points.
Moving onto Week 7, here are our recommended Hail Marys:
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (7% rostered). This call gives me great anxiety. Like, I might need meds. Every time I’ve recommended Jimmy G this year, he’s let us down. It’s like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. (It’s from a comic called Peanuts, kids. Look it up.) I should know better by now. But I just can’t stay away from the matchup. The Niners face the Colts on Sunday Night Football, and Indy is the 3rd-most favorable matchup for opposing passers. It’s going to be difficult to watch, but I think Jimmy G. is going to wind up with a useful stat line. And if he burns me… well, I should have known better. But I’m making this call on the numbers, not the emotion.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (17%). Tua was decent in his return from injury in Week 6, posting 22.36 points against the Dolphins on the strength of 300 yards passing and 2 touchdowns. He should be able to build on that at home against the Falcons this week, as Atlanta is a top-7 matchup for opposing fantasy QBs (believe it or not, the Jaguars are middle-of-the-pack).
Daniel Jones, Giants (33%). A lot of people are going to be down on him after a 3-INT Week 6 following an injury-riddled Week 5. But that’s also probably why he’s going to be available in your league. Jones typically can be counted on for a rushing element, so he probably offers a reasonably safe floor at home against the Panthers this week. I like him a lot more if any of Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and/or Darius Slayton are able to return to the lineup.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (11%). I was originally going to recommend Brandon Bolden, but it looks like Stevenson may have overtaken him as the passing-down back. We always like running backs with pass catching chops, and the Patriots have a date with the Jets in Week 7, who are the most generous defense in the league to opposing running backs.
D’Ernest Johnson, Browns (4%). With Kareem Hunt out for at least the next three weeks and Nick Chubb still ailing, Johnson should carry the load for the Browns on a short week against the Broncos. He’s likely only a one week filler, but if you find yourself in need due to the 6 teams on bye this week (Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and the LA Chargers), he can probably get you by.
Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles (28%). The Eagles face the Raiders in Week 7, who have a better defense than you think. This strikes me as the sort of game where the running backs could be heavily featured on flares, wheel routes, and screens. Although Miles Sanders is a decent pass catcher, Gainwell is a better one.
Jaret Patterson, Footballers (1%). I offer this with the caveat that I am recommending this play ONLY if Antonio Gibson is ruled out with his shin injury. If Patterson is the only game in town, he’s worth a start against the Packers. If Gibson is active, remove Patterson from your potential streamers.
Wide Receivers
Rashod Bateman, Ravens (27%). Bateman made his debut in Week 6, and didn’t make much of an impact - just 4 grabs for 29 yards. Keep the faith. Better days are ahead. This is a guy who was an elite prospect, and he’s likely to be covered by Bengals’ journeyman corner Eli Apple in Week 7. I’ve watched enough Bengals games this year to know that Apple frequently makes mistakes. Bateman may be able to capitalize on one for a big play.
Elijah Moore, Jets (16%). No, I’ve not seen anything this season to convince me that I should believe in Elijah Moore. But all we heard during training camp was that Moore was the best player - not the best rookie, the best player - in camp. I think sooner or later, we’re going to see that. The Jets had time during the bye week to evaluate what they’re doing right and what they’re doing wrong (ok, it’s mostly what they’re doing wrong), and my gut tells me that they’re going to try to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers more. I think that means Corey Davis, Michael Carter, and Moore.
Russell Gage, Falcons (6%). Disclaimer: This call presumes Gage returns from injury in Week 7. But the Falcons travel to Miami this week, and the Dolphins have been one of the top-5 most generous defenses against opposing wide receivers in 2021.
Darius Slayton, Giants (6%). [Editor’s Note: This was a late addition on Saturday.] This call is based solely on opportunity. It looks like Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley, and Kenny Golladay will all miss this game with injury, and John Ross and Evan Engram are banged up. Although Slayton will be returning after a three-game hiatus due to injury issues of his own, he should be heavily featured by the Giants right away. Fantasy football production is often driven by volume, and Slayton should see plenty of volume this week.
Tight Ends
C.J. Uzomah, Bengals (6%). The Bengals head to Baltimore this week, and the Ravens are bottom-3 in the league against the tight end. Joe Burrow trusts Uzomah, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him look his way often in this game, particularly in the red zone.
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Footballers (29%). Two weeks in a row where we’ve seen him heavily involved in the passing game. What more are you waiting for? He’s giving you a safe PPR floor and still has touchdown upside. We’ve gotten to the point where I don’t think his opponent matters all that much; he’s still seeing 6+ targets.