Start/Sit for Week 1
This column was authored by HMF Guest Columnist Dan Mattox
Welcome to Week One, HMF readers! This has been the most tumultuous, unprecedented off-season in not just the NFL, but in all of sports history. We have been cramming our faces with fantasy research for the better part of the summer. Tiers, rankings, projections, rumors. For what? COVID-19 has made day to day life uncertain outside the realm of sports, so what could we possibly expect from the NFL? Well, regardless of what we EXPECTED, what we are getting is real, live football! With this in mind, what you AREN'T going to get is your garden variety “start/sit” column. Seriously, do you need a so-called expert to tell you to start Saquon Barkley? If you do, perhaps fantasy golf is more your game. Since deep sleepers have been so adeptly covered, what you are getting from this column is unique. No hyperbole, no dart throws, no obvious calls. Just good, solid, meat and potatoes advice for filling your starting rosters beyond the superstars, and just short of praying.
STARTS
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady: Tampa vs New Orleans
The GOAT is now in Tampa with arguably the most talented cast in the NFC. He is also old enough to have rode the school bus with your brother. Does it matter? Depends on what school of thought you subscribe to. If you think Grampy Brady is old and fragile, then pass and move on. Count me among the believers that Brady is motivated and blessed with unprecedented firepower. Against the Saints, pop a Boniva, cue up Matlock, and run Brady out with confidence.
Daniel Jones: Giants vs Steelers
Many expect a big leap from “Danny Dimes” in his second year. Most also predict a rough start to the season with the Steelers first on the docket. I beg to differ. Jones has a top three running back, underrated receivers in Shepard and Slayton, and an excellent tight end in Evan Engram. Meanwhile, the Steelers are missing David DeCastro, are on the road, and have Big Ben playing his first game in a year with a shiny new elbow. Scoring will be early and often, and I expect the G-Men will have to throw lots to keep pace. Yes, the Steelers will win, but we don’t care about that, right? It’s going to be a shootout and Jones will finish as a Top 5 quarterback on the week.
[Editor’s Note: The Steelers finished last season with one of the top pass defenses in the NFL.]
Running Backs
Jordan Howard: Miami vs New England
Talk about no respect! All Howard has ever done is put up respectable, workman-like numbers at every stop he’s made. He isn’t flashy, nor does he catch passes, but he will put up 15-20 carries with a very safe floor.
Peyton Barber: Washington vs Philadelphia
I know, I hate this pick too. Six weeks into the season and no way this happens. However, with Bryce Love completely unproven, Antonio Gibson a VERY raw rookie and Smooches McKissick as competition, it definitely will be no surprise if the steady yet wholly unspectacular Barber garners 15 touches and a score. Yuck.
Wide Receivers
Will Fuller: Houston vs Kansas City
Tough spot for Houston. Playing the Super Bowl champs, opening Thursday, with a new running back and WR1. Deshaun Watson will go often to Fuller. He might be injury prone, and might hurt himself during the pregame meal, but you could also get a full months worth of production in one week. He’s that good.
Allen Lazard: Packers vs Cardinals
Not only has Lazard secured the WR2 spot in Green Bay’s offense, he’s also playing with a supremely motivated Aaron Rodgers. Lazard made strides toward earning Rodgers’ trust last year, and the rangy wide receiver is on the cusp of a breakout season, giving Rodgers his first true WR2 since the Jordy Nelson era.
SITS
Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor: Los Angeles vs Cincinnati
Forget what you (think you) know about the Bengals’ defense. This is a franchise that spent a lot of money and draft capital to turn this defense into a legitimate NFL unit. Taylor will be missing his deep threat in Mike Williams, and while Keenan Allen is a wonderful player, he is simply a possession guy. Taylor struggles huge in Cincy.
Teddy Bridgewater: Jacksonville vs Carolina
Count me amongst the skeptics regarding Bridgewater’s ability and willingness to push the ball down the field. Yes, Carolina will win this game, but Teddy Bear will spend much of his time feeding CMC like a hungry baby.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary: Buffalo vs NY Jets
What should be an easy call on the surface might otherwise be a temptation to ride Buffalo’s sophomore back amid Josh Allen’s unfamiliarity with his new weapons (Diggs, Moss). Forget it. Ball security issues and the presence of Zack Moss cap Singletary’s upside just this side of yawn.
Nick Chubb: Cleveland vs Baltimore
Not only are the Browns facing one of the best defenses in the league, but Chubb is also competing with the freshly extended Kareem Hunt for carries. The smell of fresh money is strong here and I expect Hunt to out-snap Chubb.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: Green Bay vs Minnesota
I will say this again for those in the back. Thielen is not a WR1. With no Diggs, a rookie in the slot, and someone named Bisi Johnson on the other side, Thielen is a hard pass.
A.J. Green: Cincinnati vs Los Angeles
As much as I love a healthy Green, there is no realistic route to Green being more than a low end WR3 for week one. Joe Burrow loves his slot receiver (Tyler Boyd is gonna EAT), and has almost zero work with Green. Do a hard pass on A.J. this week.
Week One is unpredictable under the best of circumstances. However with a little luck, some contrarian thinking, and solid foundation of star players, you can survive the Covid-19 — and Week One. Most of all, enjoy the return of football!