Weekly Hail Mary: Week 2
Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues. In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer.
This season, we will be keeping track of our hits and misses. Remember, this is a dart throw column - we’re dealing with the dregs, here - so I’m happy if we can get a 33% success rate. Last week we hit on 6 of 14 (43%). Not bad! Here are last week’s recommendations:
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr - MISS - 239 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. The process was right - the Raiders scored in bunches on the Panthers - but most came on the ground.
Philip Rivers - MISS - 363 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. The picks are undesirable, but it’s a good yardage total to help offset the lack of TDs.
Tyrod Taylor - MISS - 208 yards passing, 7 yards rushing, 0 TD, 0 INT.
Dwayne Haskins - MISS - 178 yards passing, 17 yards rushing, 1 TD, 0 INT.
Running Backs
Nyheim Hines - HIT - 73 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns should have him as one of the top waiver adds this week.
Devine Ozigbo/James Robinson - HIT - Ozigbo was placed on IR, and Robinson was noted in the editor’s note as his replacement and had 90 scrimmage yards. He had 16 carries and looks to have the starter’s role locked down.
Joshua Kelley - HIT - 12 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown.
AJ Dillon - MISS - 2 carries for 14 yards.
Wide Receivers
Robby Anderson - HIT - 6 receptions, 115 yards, TD.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside - MISS - 0 targets, 0 catches, 0 yards.
James Washington - HIT - 2 catches, 34 yards, TD. Although he scored from 10 yards out, Washington is the primary deep threat in this offense. Bigger days are coming.
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen - HIT - 4 catches, 24 yards, TD. The TD saves the day.
Eric Ebron - MISS - 1 catch for 18 yards.
Irv Smith, Jr. - MISS - 1 catch for 11 yards.
And now for the Hail Marys for Week 2:
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, Vikings (34% owned). Did you see what Gardner Minshew just did to the Colts?
Dwayne Haskins, Washington Football Team (5%). Hard to get excited about Haskins after his performance in Week 1, but he is playing the Cardinals this week, and they’re #notgreat.
Mitch Trubisky, Bears (3%). I know, I know. You never want to have to start Mitch Trubisky. I know. But he’s coming off a win, and they’re playing at home against the Giants. How many Giants linebackers and defensive backs can you name? The Bears are at home and, on paper, this is one of Mr. Biscuits’ easier passing matchups of the season.
Running Backs
Nyheim Hines, Colts (19%). He would likely be a top pickup anyway because of his two touchdowns in Week 1. However, with Marlon Mack lost for the season due to a torn Achilles, Hines is going to have a locked-in Top 2 role for this team. While it’s probably the advent of Jonathan Taylor SZN, Hines should still be plenty involved. Don’t go overboard expecting a repeat of Week 1, but he should be a decent flex play from here on out.
Jerick McKinnon, 49ers (11%). He was reasonably involved on Sunday in his first regular season game action in 3 years. Fun fact: No San Francisco player was targeted in the passing game more than McKinnon was on Sunday. For however long Deebo Samuel is out, McKinnon is likely to play a role in the passing game.
Benny Snell, Steelers (18%). The former Kentucky Wildcat took over as the lead ball-carrier after James Conner exited with an injury, and finished the game with 100+ yards on the ground. For as long as Conner is out, Snell is startable in all formats. If he plays well enough, he may keep the job even after Conner returns. Pittsburgh has been known to commit to a bellcow back under Mike Tomlin, so Snell should see a heavy workload during Conner’s absence.
Malcolm Brown, Rams (22%). Sean McVay has been telling us all offseason that he was going to use a committee at running back, and he’s been true to his word. Brown scored a pair of touchdowns Sunday night, to go along with over 100 yards from scrimmage. He out-touched rookie RB Cam Akers, and is the lead dog in that backfield for the immediate future.
Peyton Barber, Washington Football Team (3%). He was the clear lead dog in the backfield, with nearly twice as many rushes as the next-closest player. His yardage was horrible, but he did punch in two scores. He’s like a poor man’s Sony Michel. (No, that’s not a compliment; don’t go crazy bidding for this guy.)
Joshua Kelley, Chargers (12%). What more do you want? He got double-digit touches and is the goal-line back for a team that wants to run.
Frank Gore, Jets (4%). A longtime HMF staple, Frank Gore makes his 2020 debut on the Weekly Hail Mary list. LaMical Perine was out with injury in Week 1, and Le’Veon Bell picked up his own injury on Sunday. Gore may be the only healthy back in Week 2 (ok, and maybe Josh Adams), so if he’s receiving a full workload, he’s a safe floor play.
Wide Receivers
Robby Anderson, Panthers (30%). A priority free agent signing for the Panthers who played for HC Matt Rhule at Temple, it was clear on Sunday that Carolina wants him to be a key piece of their aerial attack. Scoop him up while you still can. He seems to be the preferred WR2 over Curtis Samuel.
Parris Campbell, Colts (22%). He led the Colts in targets and receiving yards in Week 1, and there is no reason to expect that type of usage won’t continue. TY Hilton has never been a high-volume player, so there are plenty of targets to go around in this offense. Philip Rivers’ popgun arm meshes well with Campbell’s skills running routes at or near the line of scrimmage.
Laviska Shenault, Jaguars (12%). He has beaten out Dede Westbrook for the slot WR job (Westbrook was a healthy scratch on Sunday), and he responded with a touchdown. In addition, he got a couple carries out of the backfield. As noted in our “bold predictions” column, Shenault is going to touch the ball in a variety of ways, which should give him a fairly safe floor and decent scoring upside.
Russell Gage, Falcons (11%). [Editor’s Note: Player added Wednesday, 9/16]. On Sunday, Gage caught 9 of 12 targets for 114 yards. Lest you think this is just chasing last week’s box score, consider this: in his final 6 games of last season, Gage averaged 8 targets and 5.3 receptions per game. Over the course of a full season, that would be about 85 receptions on 128 targets. Sign me up! Everyone has assumed all offseason that Hayden Hurst would be the number 3 target in the passing game, but from what we saw on Sunday, it’s actually Gage (who had the same number of receptions and targets as Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley). People like Hurst over Gage because Hurst is a “name” - a former first round pick - whereas Gage is an obscure 6th rounder who has taken several years to emerge. But Gage is the one who is producing, and is the better bet for fantasy production this season. I understand that it’s never fulfilling to invest in a team’s WR3 - but if you’re going to do it, the Falcons’ high-powered aerial attack is the one to target.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (1%). Raise your hand if you thought Logan Thomas was going to lead Washington in targets in Week 1! Although he didn’t have a huge stat line, he did see 8 targets and hauled in half of them, one of which went for a score. It looks like he’s the #2 option in the passing game behind Terry McScorin. He may wind up being this year’s Darren Waller.
Greg Olsen, Seahawks (26%). He’s as good of a bet as anyone to score a touchdown - just like last week. The Seahawks don’t really have a third WR threat, and Russ has a long history of targeting his tight ends in the end zone.
Jimmy Graham, Bears (5%). Again, can you name the starting linebackers for the Giants? Plus, rumor has it that A-Rob wants out of town. They’ve got Anthony Miller, but who else is gonna catch passes in the Windy City?