Weekly Hail Mary: Week 1
It’s back! Hail Mary Football’s raison d’etre, the Weekly Hail Mary. Each week of the football season, HMF will provide you with at least one “Hail Mary” at QB, RB, WR, and TE - a guy who is not generally regarded as a starter for the week, but who has the potential to pay off big. Think of it as a dart throw column. These are the guys you look to when you’re in dire straits and have nowhere else to turn. They are lottery tickets that are not necessarily likely to hit, but if they do, you’ll be thrilled, as you can likely grab them for free off your waiver wire. We only focus on players who are available in at least two-thirds of Yahoo! leagues.
In other words, if you’re desperate, we’re giving you a prayer. The Hail Marys for Week 1:
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, Raiders (18% owned). The Raiders open the season against the Panthers, who are projected by many to have the worst defense in the NFL. Sometimes, it’s that easy.
Philip Rivers, Colts (30%). The Colts are on the road against Jacksonville to open the season, and the Jags appear to be #TankingforTrevor. Indy has perhaps the best offensive line in the NFL, and has plenty of weapons for Rivers in TY Hilton, Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Marlon Mack, and Jack Doyle. Also, unless you’re a Jags fan, I’ll bet you can’t name three veteran defensive players for Jacksonville. This has the potential to be a high scoring affair.
Tyrod Taylor, Chargers (8%). I’d feel more confident in this pick if Mike Williams were playing. Still, the Chargers get to open the season against the Bengals, and the last time we saw the Bengals (try to) play defense, it was pathetic. Trae Waynes, signed to bolster the secondary, is out for at least two months. The Bengals haven’t had competent linebacker play in several seasons. Even though Taylor is a subpar NFL quarterback, he shouldn’t have too difficult of a time putting up fantasy points against Cincinnati.
Dwayne Haskins, Washington (5%). This is the call I’m least confident about, but I could see Haskins blowing up in a big way against the Eagles. Washington is playing at home, the Eagles secondary has been a problem spot for several seasons now, and Haskins is a dark horse candidate to be this year’s most improved quarterback. I wouldn’t be shocked if Philly sticks Darius Slay on Terry McLaurin and completely shuts down this passing offense, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see them unexpectedly explode, the way Lamar Jackson did in the opener against the Dolphins last season.
Running Backs
A.J. Dillon, Packers (22%). If you’re starting Dillon, you’re basically banking on a goal line touchdown. The Packers spent a second round pick on him, but they still have Aaron Jones to shoulder most of the load.
Nyheim Hines, Colts (17%). Philip Rivers has made a career out of gaining chunk yards from running backs with skills in the passing game (e.g., LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler). Why not Hines? This may not be the best week to rely on Hines since it’s likely that the Colts will be playing with a lead against Jacksonville, but he’s probably as good of a dart throw as any.
Devine Ozigbo, Jaguars (12%). It’s hard to get excited about any of the options in the Jaguars’ backfield following the release of Leonard Fournette, but I’m claiming Ozigbo as my guy to lead the team in carries while Ryquell Armstead is out. Ozigbo was a favorite of Mel Kiper’s leading up to the 2019 draft, so that was at least enough to get my attention. [Editor’s Note: After this article was published, James Robinson was listed as the starter for Jacksonville. Robinson is also widely available in Yahoo leagues.]
Joshua Kelley, Chargers (10%). Remember what I said about the Bengals defense being bad? This guy is projected as the Bolts’ between-the-tackles grinder. If a rushing touchdown is scored by a Chargers running back, Kelley should be the guy.
Wide Receivers
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Eagles (2%). JJAW has value because he’s pretty much the last man standing in the Eagles’ receiving corps. Marquise Goodwin opted out, Alshon Jeffery has been hurt for a while now, and rookie first round pick Jalen Reagor picked up an injury in camp. The top healthy guys are Arcega-Whiteside and Desean Jackson. JJAW was a high draft pick last year (second round), reports on him out of training camp have been positive, and he opens the season against a horrendous Washington secondary. My suspicion is that Washington will focus its defensive attention on stopping D-Jax, which should create opportunities for Arcega-Whiteside in single coverage.
James Washington, Steelers (14%). Another former second round pick who may be a late bloomer. Washington is entering his third season in the NFL, and is really the only proven deep threat the Steelers have (although I believe that Chase Claypool also has the skill set to fill that role). With Big Ben back and against a depleted Giants secondary, Washington could shake loose for a long score on Monday Night Football.
Robby Anderson, Panthers (31%). Here’s the thing: any endorsement of Anderson has to be lukewarm because his best skill is getting open deep, but his QB is Teddy Bridgewater, and throwing up the YOLO balls just ain’t Teddy’s thing, ya know? But against a Raiders secondary set to feature first round reach Damon Arnette? Call me crazy, but I think Anderson scores here.
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen, Seahawks (29%). Russell Wilson loves targeting his tight ends in the end zone. It’s as simple as that.
Eric Ebron, Steelers (32%). We’ve seen him post elite seasons before. Aside from rookie Chase Claypool, he’s really the only red zone threat the Steelers have.
Irv Smith, Jr., Vikings (16%). Minnesota will be running 12 personnel as their base offense this season. They really have no pass catching threats on the roster aside from Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook (though they certainly hope rookie Justin Jefferson will become one). Is it that much of a stretch to think that Smith - Minnesota’s second round pick in 2019 - could become its second or third option in the passing game this season?