Updated Running Back Ranks
Having participated in countless mock drafts at this point, it is appropriate to readjust our ranks as we approach the NFL season. Commentary is added next to those players who have significantly moved up or down in the Running Back Ranks. Each player who has moved has a +/- next to his name indicating how many spots he moved.
Saquon Barkley, Giants.
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers.
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys.
Alvin Kamara, Saints.
Dalvin Cook, Vikings (+1). With the Vikings’ having traded Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, Cook is ingrained as the focal point of the offense. He should receive a heavy workload both rushing and receiving.
Joe Mixon, Bengals (-1). I’m still higher on Mixon than consensus. This is one of the most talented dudes in the NFL, but he’s been held back by poor offensive line play. He can reach the upper echelon of NFL backs if LT Jonah Williams is as good as advertised and Fred Johnson can unseat the perennially-disappointing Bobby Hart at RT. Having Joe Burrow under center should help, too.
Chris Carson, Seahawks (+1). I really don’t understand what this guy has to do to get some love. Will he finish as the RB1? No. But will he finish as a Top-12 running back? Money in the bank. He’s finished as a Top 12 RB every year as a starter, and he plays for the most run-centric team in the NFL. Carson is a really safe pick, and in a lot of leagues you can get him as your RB2.
Derrick Henry, Titans (+1). Derrick Henry scares me. He had a massive workload last year, and I’m worried he’s going to break. He also has to continue busting big plays to justify his ADP, as he contributes next to nothing in the passing game. He’s this high because, well, we’ve seen him dominate. But I acknowledge that there’s a lot of risk.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (+10). With Damien Williams opting out, CEH is now in line for the lion’s share of the touches in the most prolific offense in the league.
Le’Veon Bell, Jets. I probably remain alone on Lev Bell Island, and I’m ok with that. We know he can finish as the top RB in fantasy; he’s done it before. Also, I don’t think there’s any way that the Jets can be as bad as they were last year. Positive touchdown regression is coming for this team, and Bell does not have much competition in the backfield.
Miles Sanders, Eagles (+3). My feelings on Miles Sanders change daily. Some days, I see a guy who is the most talented back Doug Pederson has ever had, who posted tantalizing numbers in the second half of last season. Other times I see just another committee back in Doug Pederson’s system of committee backs. If he’s not getting the lion’s share of the work, I fear this ranking may be way too high.
Aaron Jones, Packers (+3). The snap share article on HMF highlighted how, although Jones is a “committee” back, he’s still Top 10 in the NFL in terms of snap share. No, he’s not likely to repeat last year’s lofty touchdown total, but he’s still probably a good bet to get 10 total touchdowns in a Packers offense that now relies on the running game instead of Aaron Rodgers’ arm.
Nick Chubb, Browns (-6). Two words: Kareem. Hunt.
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (-1). Fournette doesn’t have much of a challenge to his workload on first and second downs, but the team did sign RB Chris Thompson to handle the passing down work, which should negatively affect Fournette’s bottom line. Thompson is already familiar with new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, having played for him for several years in Washington, and this Jaguars team, on paper, seems to be playing from behind quite a bit.
Kenyan Drake, Cardinals (+1). This is a swing player for 2020. If he balls out like he did in the second half of 2019, the teams that draft him in Round 2 are likely playing for championships. If he can’t handle a starter’s workload, those teams are likely missing the playoffs. He’s the very definition of a high-risk, high-reward player.
Todd Gurley, Falcons (+6). Yes, Todd Gurley’s body is breaking down. But a broken-down Gurley is still better than half of the starting backs in the NFL. It’s hard to envision a world where he doesn’t get to double digit touchdowns again unless his body is truly done.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders (-5). I want to like Jacobs, I really do. But his limited workload last season (less than 50% of the snaps) and the Raiders bringing in Lynn Bowden in the third round of the draft tells me that he’s not likely to see an increase in production this season. A repeat of last season would be fine, but that’s a RB2 season, not low-end RB1, which is where he’s getting drafted.
Melvin Gordon, Broncos.
James Conner, Steelers (-2). Conner should deliver decent value as an RB2, but it would be too bold to draft him in front of the guys ahead of him on this list. He struggles with the injury bug, so you have to assume you’re not going to have him for the entire season.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers (-9). Last year he set a career high with 557 yards rushing. He only had 3 rushing touchdowns. If you’re drafting Ekeler, you’re banking on a repeat of his 92 receptions, 993 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. Bear in mind that transitioning from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor, the Chargers are likely to throw less; and also bear in mind that in previous seasons, Ekeler never eclipsed 39 receptions, 405 yards, or 3 receiving touchdowns. On most fantasy sites he’s being drafted in the second round, which seems like buying a player at his peak. Why not just wait a few rounds and draft Patriots RB James White, who over the past four seasons has caught at least 56 passes for 429 yards and 3 touchdowns? The two players are actually quite similar:
Ekeler 2019: 557 yards rushing, 3 rush TD; 92 rec, 993 yards receiving, 8 TD
White 2018: 425 yards rushing, 5 rush TD, 87 rec, 751 yards receiving, 7 TDJonathan Taylor, Colts (+8). The guy’s college dominator rating (see playerprofiler.com) is absolutely astounding. He had an early breakout age, is durable, has breakaway speed, and was highly productive in college. He now gets to play behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. There are questions about his hands, but there are questions about Derrick Henry’s hands, too, and that hasn’t stopped him from being an RB1.
D’Andre Swift, Lions (+2). Great talent, and should get the passing game work from jump. He does not have a guaranteed workload, but he has considerably more upside than guys like David Johnson and Raheem Mostert.
Cam Akers, Rams (+5). I believe he’s going to lead the backfield in touches over Darrell Henderson, and he plays for one of the most creative offensive minds in the NFL.
David Johnson, Texans (-4). Just concerned that he’s cooked. I’m much more comfortable drafting third-down back Duke Johnson as a late round flier than spending one of my first four picks on David Johnson. Dude has lost his juice: https://twitter.com/kyleynfl/status/1194331114120339456?lang=en.
Mark Ingram, Ravens (-4). Love Ingram as a player, and he had a great 2019. But he also played less than 50% of the snaps, and is likely to see a decreased workload with J.K. Dobbins in the fold.
David Montgomery, Bears (+1). Volume-based play. Not a special talent. Really just a souped-up Shonn Greene.
Raheem Mostert, 49ers (-4). Can’t catch, and not a particularly special talent. People assume he’s the starter because of what they saw in the conference championship game and the Super Bowl. Wouldn’t surprise me if Tevin Coleman, not Mostert, is the team’s starting running back in Week 1.
James White, Patriots (-3). White is the ideal injury replacement or bye-week filler, but you really don’t want to rely on him as one of your primary starters. He brings very little in the running game. He is, however, a poor man’s Austin Ekeler, whom you can get in Round 6.
Devin Singletary, Bills (+1). I haven’t wound up with Devin Singletary on a single team yet. He’s a useful player, but he’s more of a Willie Parker or Julius Jones, a between-the-20s runner who is unlikely to contribute much in the touchdown column. The scores are likely to go to Josh Allen and Zack Moss.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens (+2). The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him as the best RB prospect in the draft. Per PFF, he was the best RB out of the shotgun in college last year, and he goes to the team that runs more shotgun snaps than any other. Once he gets a chance, he should feast.
Ronald Jones, Buccaneers (+12). Rojo has been one of the biggest risers in drafts over the last month because HC Bruce Arians is pumping him up as “the guy” and rookie RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn missed valuable time with the team while battling COVID-19. Jones should be entrenched as the starter for at least the first half of the season, making him a popular choice for Zero-RB truthers.
Jordan Howard, Dolphins (+9). Wherever he goes, he produces. He’s only a two-down banger, but he’s very good at that job, and should be good for 5-7 scores.
Tarik Cohen (-7). A valuable bye week filler, but he’s never going to contribute much on the ground.
Marlon Mack, Colts (-1).
Phillip Lindsay, Broncos (-1).
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers (-1).
Sony Michel, Patriots (-1). He’ll likely drop further than this the longer he stays on the PUP list.
Kerryon Johnson, Lions (-1).
Zack Moss, Bills.
Matt Breida, Dolphins.
Latavius Murray, Saints (+1).
Kareem Hunt, Browns (+2).
Adrian Peterson, Washington (+10). Derrius Guice was cut, which puts Peterson in line for starter’s duties in Washington once again. Not bad for a guy who has already been jettisoned by three different NFL franchises.
Tevin Coleman, 49ers (+3). Like I mentioned with Mostert, this dude could start. He’s a great mid-round gamble, even if he is only a marginal talent.
Darrell Henderson, Rams (+15). We all assume Cam Akers is leading this backfield. But what if we’re wrong? Henderson is associated with decent draft capital (third round) and he certainly wouldn’t be the first player to make the sophomore leap.
A.J. Dillon, Packers (-1).
Bryce Love, Washington (+17). We think it’s going to be AP. We may be wrong.
Nyheim Hines, Colts (+1).
Antonio Gibson, Washington (-3). Gibson’s hype train has gone a bit off the rails.
Darrynton Evans, Titans (-2).
Boston Scott, Eagles (NR). This is a case of me admitting I was wrong by leaving him off my initial list. His play down the stretch last year suggests he could be a valuable piece in this offense, especially if Miles Sanders misses time.
Lynn Bowden, Raiders (-1).
Joshua Kelley, Chargers (-3). My feelings on the player haven’t changed; I just had him too high before.
Anthony McFarland, Steelers (+2). McFarland is likely to inherit the scatback duties in Pittsburgh. It remains to be seen whether he or Benny Snell will carry the load in the event of an injury to James Conner.
Chase Edmonds, Cardinals (-1).
Benny Snell, Steelers (-1).
Damien Harris, Patriots (+2). Every day Sony Michel misses, Harris becomes more valuable.
La’Mical Perine, Jets (-1).
Giovani Bernard, Bengals (-1).
Tony Pollard, Cowboys (-8). Barring an injury to Zeke, he should lack standalone value.
Carlos Hyde, Seahawks.
Alex Mattison, Vikings (+1).
Reggie Bonnafon, Panthers (+3). Bonnafon and the two guys behind him moved up significantly just because of the number of guys ahead of them who were moved down.
Chris Thompson, Jaguars (+3).
DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks (+3). Early reports are that he could be locking down the third down/pass catching role.
Lamar Miller, Patriots (NR). Signed by New England as Sony Michel insurance.
Jamaal Williams, Packers (+4). He’s still likely to get the passing game work for a team that lacks many passing game threats.
Rex Burkhead, Patriots (+2).
Justice Hill, Ravens.
Rashaad Penny, Seahawks (-8). It’s looking more and more like Penny is not going to be healthy enough to play.
Traveyon Williams, Bengals (+2).
Malcolm Brown, Rams (+2).
Eno Benjamin, Cardinals (+2).
Gus Edwards, Ravens (+2).
Ryquell Armstead, Jaguars (-3).
Devonta Freeman, FA (-11). The longer he goes unsigned, the more likely it becomes that he doesn’t play at all this season. It’s hard to hold a roster spot for a guy who is purely a gamble to suit up.
Dion Lewis, Giants.
Derrius Guice, FA (-47). If you get cut from your team for three separate incidents of domestic violence, you plummet down the ranks. If he gets signed by another team, he’s likely looking at a minimum of a six-game suspension.
Off the list: Damien Williams, Chiefs (-40). Williams opted out and will not play this season.