Undervalued Players in 2020 Fantasy Drafts
It has become an annual tradition for Hail Mary Football to look at ADP data from ESPN and provide an overview of the undervalued players in fantasy drafts. This year is no different. The undervalued players for 2020, based on ESPN ADP data from August 22:
Joe Mixon (ADP 25.4). This ADP is insane to me. I have Mixon as a late first round pick. What’s not to like? He’s a multi-time 1,000 yard rusher. He catches passes. He’s tremendously skilled. His offensive line is improved from last year. He’s a lock for more than 300 touches. And the Bengals offense should be improved with Joe Burrow under center. What’s not to like? The dude is only 24, and his arrow is still pointing up. This is the last time to buy low, because he’ll likely go in the top half of the first round next year.
Odell Beckham (ADP 39.3). A fourth round pick for a guy that has had multiple finishes in the Top 5 of his position in the past and is entering the prime of his career. He also led the NFL in snap share last year, so you know he’s going to get a heavy workload. I’ll spend a fourth round pick every day on a guy with his track record, age, and upside.
Jonathan Taylor (ADP 66.6). Look him up on Playerprofiler.com. You’ll thank me later. This dude had an insane college dominator rating, and his speed score (weight adjusted 40 time) is bonkers. He was tremendously productive in college, had a great combine, and plays behind an elite offensive line. The downsides are his fumbling problems in college, lack of demonstrated pass catching ability, and, well, Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. Still, this guy has superstar potential, and waiting until the 6th round to draft him seems foolish.
DeVante Parker (ADP 75.6). I get the sense that Parker would be going a lot higher in drafts but for his track record in the league. Just about everyone has owned DeVante Parker at some point or another and been burned. If you were going on his 2019 numbers alone, he would be, at worst, a fourth round pick. The dude propelled many a fantasy owner to a title in 2019. Yes, I’m wary of what happens when Tua Tagovailoa is under center, as rookie QBs don’t often produce WR1s. But if you take him just one round earlier (round 6), you’ll be tickled pink when he’s a viable WR2, as that round typically consists of WR3-types.
AJ Green (ADP 80.5). People are too afraid of his health. If he’s right, he’s a Top 5 WR, no questions asked. People act like AJ Green is old and washed up, yet they have no problem drafting Julio Jones (drafted 2 picks after Green in 2011) at the back end of the first round. If you’re willing to take Julio, you should be willing to take AJ.
Ronald Jones (ADP 85.6). As a player, I hate RoJo. As a value, I love him. This dude is going to be the primary ball-carrier for what most presume will be a prolific offense. Tom Brady isn’t afraid to audible to runs in the red zone. RoJo could be a sneaky bet for several short touchdowns this year. He’s going as an 8th round pick. You need to pounce earlier than that, as he’s a viable RB3 with the potential for more. I’m not afraid of washed up vet LeSean McCoy, nor rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who missed valuable time in camp on the COVID-19 list.
Will Fuller (ADP 94.6). With DeAndre Hopkins being jettisoned to the Cardinals, Fuller is the Texans receiver with the most chemistry with Deshaun Watson. Sure, he has an injury history. But when healthy, he and Watson are Drift Compatible. (f you don’t get the reference, watch Pacific Rim.) There is some sort of magical connection with these guys that results in touchdowns. He’s going in the 8th round, but if he can stay healthy he’s going to return significantly more value than that.
Matthew Stafford (ADP 127.4). This guy was tearing it up before he got injured last year. I’m all for waiting on quarterbacks, but I’d certainly pounce on Stafford several rounds before his 11th round ADP.
Marlon Mack (ADP 138.9). The flip side to the Jonathan Taylor equation. Mack may very well hold Taylor off the entire year. He’s certainly worth a pick in Round 11, as he may wind up a 1,000 yard rusher once again.
Joe Burrow (ADP 151.7). Really? We loved Kyler Murray last year, but we don’t love Burrow this year? Burrow had a more impressive final season in college than Murray, and is the better pro prospect. Don’t be surprised when he finishes the season as a QB1.
Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 160.5). Nobody seems to want the future Hall of Famer, but he still had 75 receptions for 800 yards last year. While those aren’t eye-popping numbers, consider that his catch total was top-20 among WRs. He’s playing in a pass-friendly offense with a second-year quarterback the fantasy community seems to love. Fitzgerald has always been durable, so he’s likely to continue to put up reliable receptions totals, especially if Kyler Murray takes the second year leap that is being anticipated. It just doesn’t make sense to me that Fitzy is going largely undrafted in most leagues when his floor seems like that of a WR4, and his ceiling is obviously a good bit higher.