Bold Predictions for 2020
Fantasy football, like many industries, is plagued by “conventional wisdom.” But going against conventional wisdom, at the right time, is how you win championships. Below are ten “bold predictions” which, if they pan out, could steer your fantasy team toward a title this season. And if they don’t work out - well, hey, there’s a reason these predictions were bold!
1. Chase Edmonds will lead all Cardinals running backs in fantasy scoring.
Why it could happen: Kenyan Drake has not been a lead back for a full season since he was in high school. There is no evidence to suggest he is built to be a bellcow for an entire NFL season. The sample size on Drake excelling is small - basically three games. But there’s also a small sample size on Edmonds excelling, as well (last year’s Giants game in which David Johnson was injured, and Edmonds had over 100 yards and three scores). Why are we so convinced that Drake is “the guy”? Edmonds dealt with injury issues of his own last year, which led to Drake’s heavy workload down the stretch. This may end up being more of a timeshare than people think — or Edmonds could just take the job outright.
2. Joe Burrow will finish the season as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback.
Why it could happen: This one is really pretty simple. Last year, in his rookie season, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray finished the season as QB8. Joe Burrow is better than Kyler Murray. He also has more weapons to work with than Murray did. Burrow is an underrated rusher, and is also very good when the play breaks down. A top 10 finish for Burrow almost seems too obvious, so maybe it’s not all that “bold,” but I see him being selected outside the top 10 QBs in nearly every fantasy draft I participate in, so clearly the fantasy community doesn’t view him as a top commodity just yet.
3. Damien Harris will lead the Patriots in rushing attempts and touchdowns.
Why it could happen: Sony Michel is hurt. Lamar Miller was signed as insurance, and he’s hurt. Harris has decent draft capital associated with him (3rd round), and is handling the lion’s share of 1st team reps in camp. He spent the majority of his rookie year learning the Patriots system. This is a late-round guy who could end up returning 3rd-4th round value if he turns into a bell cow. Running lanes are typically plentiful when you play with a running quarterback, and Harris gets to play with Cam Newton.
4. The top-producing rookie wide receiver in fantasy will be Jaguars’ WR Laviska Shenault.
Why it could happen: Is Shenault the most talented WR in this class? No, not purely as a pass-catcher. But he is the most versatile. In addition to his contributions in the passing game, he can also contribute as a runner and returner. A bet on Shenault is a bet on multipurpose yards. He may not have a high number of receiving touchdowns, but he can likely supplement his receiving numbers with sneaky yardage totals rushing and returning, and maybe contributing a few scores that way as well.
5. AJ Dillon will lead the Packers in rushing touchdowns.
Why it could happen: Aaron Jones is a do-it-all back and the focal point of the Packers offense. Jones will stay fresh if they sprinkle in Jamaal Williams for third down work and bring in the bulldozer Dillon for short yardage and goal line situations. Dillon was highly productive at Boston College, and the Packers invested a second round pick in him this year. You have to assume they have a plan for him, and that the plan does not include him sitting on the sidelines. Let him do what he does well: punch it in. He had double-digit rushing touchdowns every year at BC.
6. Irv Smith Jr. will finish the season as a TE1.
Why it could happen: Smith had an OK rookie season - 36 receptions, 311 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Nothing to get excited about, but nothing to scoff at, either, especially when you consider he was playing second fiddle to Kyle Rudolph. Smith’s primary skill is in the passing game, and the Vikings’ depth chart at wideout ain’t all that inspiring behind Adam Thielen. Many pundits are projecting Thielen for a monster workload this season, with Dalvin Cook next in line. That may well be true. But my gut tells me that Smith is likely third in the pecking order, and could very well outperform rookie first round pick Justin Jefferson this season.
7. Raheem Mostert will not finish the season among the top 24 RBs in fantasy points.
Why it could happen: He’s a 28 year old journeyman UDFA. He doesn’t catch passes. During the regular season in 2019, he had only one game with at least 15 carries, which not coincidentally was the only game where he rushed for more than 100 yards. Tevin Coleman was the primary ballcarrier for the Niners until he got hurt. Mostert now has to contend not only with Coleman, but also with a healthy Jerick McKinnon. Pick a reason, any reason. It just seems like people are high on Mostert because they remember his huge game against the Packers in the playoffs (when Coleman was hurt) and his performance in the Super Bowl. But beware recency bias. His entire body of work suggests that he’s fool’s gold.
8. Hayden Hurst does not finish the season as a TE1.
Why it could happen: Hurst is getting pumped up as a sneaky target to finish the season as a top tight end, given that he’s now playing in Atlanta’s high-flying offense. But let’s pump the brakes on that a bit. Sure, Atlanta has a good offense. Sure, the depth chart looks pretty bare behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. But that doesn’t mean Hurst is going to produce. I mean, it’s not exactly like he was playing in a BAD offense last year; Lamar Jackson of the Ravens led the league in passing scores. In that Ravens offense, Hurst played only one fewer snap than tight end Mark Andrews. Andrews had over 60 catches and 10 TDs; Hurst had 30 and 2. Could he possibly improve on those numbers? Sure. But expecting it as a foregone conclusion seems foolhardy, given that he is already coming from a good offense and wasn’t able to produce in it.
9. Gardner Minshew finishes as a QB1.
Why it could happen: Because he has to. On paper, the Jaguars may be the worst team in the league, so if they’re going to contend, Minshew has to keep them in it. He is one of the best deep ball throwers in the league, and he also possesses the Konami Code (rushing ability). If he chucks YOLO balls deep to DJ Chark, relies on Dede Westbrook and Laviska Shenault for short and underneath routes, looks to Tyler Eifert in the red zone, and takes off running when nothing is there - I know, I know, a lot of “ifs” - he can certainly finish this season as a top-12 signal-caller.
10. James White outscores Austin Ekeler.
Why it could happen: These two players are more similar than you think. Compare Ekeler’s 2019 to White’s 2018.
Ekeler: 557 yards rushing, 3 rush TDs, 92 receptions, 993 yards, 8 TD
White: 425 yards rushing, 5 rush TDs, 87 receptions, 751 yards, 7 TD
Ekeler’s line is better overall, but not by much. And White has a much longer track record of doing it. He has caught at least 40 balls in 5 straight seasons (averaging 63 receptions per year), and never had fewer than 3 receiving scores (averaging almost 5). Ekeler, on the other hand, has only one season with at least 40 receptions, and it was last year (when he had 92). The Chargers are changing quarterbacks from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor/Justin Herbert. Presumably, Taylor will start the season for the Bolts, and he, on average, throws six fewer passes per game than Rivers. That’s inevitably going to lead to lower volume for Ekeler. White, on the other hand, now gets to play with Cam Newton in New England. Newton has shown a penchant for checking down to the running back, having played with Christian McCaffrey, so he’s certainly well aware of how to best utilize a back with White’s receiving talents. In other words, White’s arrow could be pointing up, while Ekeler’s could be pointing in the opposite direction.