Offensive Coordinators: NFC East
This is the fifth article in our eight-part series examining the track records of the current offensive coordinators in the NFL. Our hope is that an understanding of how their teams have performed in the past can give us some insights into how players in their schemes might perform in fantasy this season. To gather the relevant data, I researched every offensive coordinator and then analyzed how his teams have fared in each season he has spent as an offensive coordinator or head coach at the NFL level. I focused on his prior team’s ranks in six areas: (1) total offensive yards, (2) total offensive touchdowns, (3) rushing yards, (4) rushing touchdowns, (5) passing yards, and (6) passing touchdowns. This article focuses on the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys - Kellen Moore
Moore has only one season calling plays at the NFL level, but whew, 2019 was a doozy! In his first season at the helm, the Cowboys were tops in the league in total yards. They were also 6th in overall scoring, including a 7th place finish in rushing touchdowns and a 5th place finish in passing touchdowns. And Dallas arguably improved offensively in the offseason, adding WR CeeDee Lamb with their first round pick. There is no reason to expect that the team will take a step back in 2020 (unless Mike McCarthy meddles enough to stifle the offense). Confidently invest in QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Amari Cooper, WR Michael Gallup, and Lamb.
New York Giants - Jason Garrett
I love guys who have been around long enough to give us a large sample size from which to draw our data and conclusions. Garrett was the offensive coordinator or head coach for the Dallas Cowboys every season since 2007. His offenses averaged a 10th place finish in total yardage, 12th in overall scoring, 12th in rushing yards, 15th in rushing scores, 13th in passing yards, and 10th in passing scores. Based on these averages, no matter what, we should plan on his Giants having an offense that places in the top half of the league this season. But let’s dig a little deeper…
In his 13 seasons with Dallas, his offenses finished among the top 7 in passing scores 8 times, and the top 5 in passing scores 5 times. In other words, the Giants this year are more likely than not to be pretty darn close to a Top 5 passing offense. Similarly, in the time since the Cowboys drafted Ezekiel Elliott (2016), they have finished 2nd, 2nd, 10th, and 5th in rushing yards, and 2nd, 2nd, 16th, and 7th in rushing scores. If you haven’t noticed, Saquon Barkley is a better player than Zeke. He is primed for a HUGE season under Garrett.
So given these stellar results, should you place a premium on all Giants players? Not so fast, my friend! (H/t to Lee Corso.) In the last few years of Tony Romo and the first few years of Dak Prescott (aside from last season), the passing offense left much to be desired. From 2015-2018, the Cowboys never finished higher than 23rd or lower than 27th in passing yards, and only once in that period did they finish in the top half of the league in passing scores. So, the question is, did Garrett’s play-calling suddenly get worse for passing offenses, or was Dak Prescott just not prepared or capable of leading an elite passing offense at that time?
The point I’m trying to make is that Garrett had an elite passing offense when he had an elite passer (Romo), and his passing offense sputtered when he had a lesser player (yes, in my opinion, Dak Prescott, at least to this point in his career, is a lesser passer than Tony Romo.) So how do you use this information? Well, it all comes down to how you feel about Daniel Jones. If you think he is (physically and mentally) capable of orchestrating an elite passing offense, Garrett should be able to tease that production out of him. Although I was a huge Jones-basher when he was coming out of college, I’ve come around on him, and I do believe he’s capable of leading an elite aerial attack. Golden Tate should be excellent out of the slot, and Darius Slayton is a great late pick as your 4th or 5th wide receiver. I’m probably fading Sterling Shepard because I’m still not convinced he can be a useful player on the outside, and Evan Engram has to prove he can stay healthy. If Jones takes off in 2020, it’s likely going to be due to a combination of Barkley rebounding, Slayton continuing to emerge, and Tate being the PPR maven he has been in the past.
Philadelphia Eagles - Doug Pederson
Pederson, the head coach of the Eagles, will not have an offensive coordinator in 2020 and will again be calling his own plays. It is difficult to get a read on what to expect. Pederson served as offensive coordinator for the Chiefs from 2013-2015, and has been at the helm of the Eagles since 2016. Comparing the offenses for each of these franchises gives us some potentially-valuable insights for 2020. With the Chiefs, Pederson’s teams averaged a 3rd place finish in rushing scores, and never finished lower than 5th; but with the Eagles, the average finish in rushing TDs has been significantly worse, at 17th. With the Chiefs, his offenses averaged as the 8th-best rushing team in terms of yards; with the Eagles, they’ve been the 13th. But if you take out an outlier 28th-place finish in 2018, the Eagles improve to 8th - exactly what Pederson averaged with the Chiefs.
On the passing side of the equation: with the Chiefs, his offenses averaged a 28th-place finish in yardage; but with the Eagles, it’s been about 14th. With the Chiefs, his offenses averaged a 23rd-ranked finish in passing scores; with the Eagles over the last three seasons, they have ranked as high as 1st and as low as 12th.
The takeaway? The passing offense is probably going to be among the top half of the league, with a chance to be one of the league’s best if the supporting cast can stay healthy. Quarterback Carson Wentz, who is being taken as a low end QB1 or high end QB2, is a significant value this year. The same can be said for WR DeSean Jackson. Tight end Zach Ertz is probably appropriately valued, if not a tad overhyped, at his third round draft cost. We should also expect that another guy is likely to emerge in this offense if they are to continue as one of the league’s most prolific passing offenses. Perhaps that guy will be a combination of RB MIles Sanders and TE Dallas Goedert; or perhaps it will be one of the cheap wide receivers like J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Alshon Jeffery (currently injured), or rookie Jalen Reagor. It would be worth gambling on one of these guys with your final WR slot, as the payoff could be big.
The rushing offense is likely to pile on the yardage, but will likely be subpar in the touchdown department, given the past history of Pederson offenses. Thus, for Miles Sanders to return value at his late 3rd/early 4th ADP, he’s going to have to show continued growth with the receiving work that everyone is banking on, because he isn’t likely to have a huge TD season on the ground. And be even more wary of Sanders if they bring in an additional back like Devonta Freeman or Lamar Miller to ease his workload.
Washington - Scott Turner
Norv’s kid got his feet wet as an offensive coordinator last December, when he was named interim offensive coordinator for the Panthers. He has an extremely limited resume as a play-caller in the NFL. That likely doesn’t bode well for an offense that - on paper, at least - doesn’t seem too imposing. Terry McLaurin is worth every penny of his 5th-round ADP, and Derrius Guice is a huge value as a 6th round pick who could potentially be a bellcow, but it’s difficult to get excited about anyone else in this offense. Keep an eye on the WR2 battle, as whomever emerges as the starter (Antonio Gandy-Golden? Free agent Antonio Brown?) could be walking into decent volume, and volume is king in fantasy.
The links for Parts 1-4 in our series on offensive coordinators can be found below:
AFC East: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-east
AFC North: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-north
AFC South: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/6/27/offensive-coordinators-afc-south
AFC West: https://www.hailmaryfootball.com/fantasy-blog/2020/7/2/offensive-coordinators-afc-west